Crisis: CEOs more pessimistic than in 2008

Worse than the fall of 2008, "58% of business leaders consider an inevitable deterioration in the economic situation," according to the survey conducted in 2011 by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Paris (CCIP). This survey was conducted during September, with 5000 businesses with fewer than 500 employees, representing the economic fabric of Ile de France and the country as a whole. There were only 48% of patrons to express such a fear in September 2008, at the time of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, which would trigger a few months later a global recession – in France, in particular, GDP declined by 2.5% in 2009.

A remake of 2008-2009 is in everyone's head. But comparison is not right."Companies now have to pay much less than in 2008 and stocks the contrary, they have much better treasuries, said Pierre-Antoine Gailly, President of the CCIP. For the whole of France, their current account deposits at banks now amount to 180 billion euros, 20 billion more than in 2008. "

The CCIP also notes that if the concern that banks limit access to credit are large, this fear has not yet materialized. Moreover, the dreaded cold snap on the situation at the moment is focused on Europe, while in 2008 it had distributed instantly worldwide. Clearly the multiplier effects that had abruptly fired three years ago now seem less formidable.The current crisis follows a phenomenon much more confidence that it reflects a mechanical depression guaranteed unsecured personal loan.

Bring to a faster response to the crisis in Greece

Thinning can therefore act only through a return of confidence, it says in the CCIP. First in Europe: it is faster to make a response to the crisis in Greece and more generally to uncertainties in the sovereign debt.

Second key point: the situation of banks and their ability to finance the economy. There also should clarify the situation, including the definition of the application of Basel III on capital requirements.

Third dimension, unique to France, the presidential campaign. She never held in such a climate of economic turmoil, with what is more significant questions about a possible alternate.Two factors, by definition, anxiety, do you recognize the CCIP where one refrains from taking sides of course on the merits. Much will depend on the conduct of the presidential campaign, knowing that in times of uncertainty the temptation of inaction is great for business.

Everything will be in the speech

The survey conducted last September marked a sharp decline in climate, especially in SMEs. The synthetic indicator currently stands at 91 down from 106 in September 2006, at the last presidential campaign for SMEs. For larger companies, this indicator is 96 against 104 five years ago. While governments have no fiscal space to influence the deal, everything will be in the speech. The power of words never been so great.

Refinery strike threat to hard Berre and elsewhere …

As soon as the announcement by LyondellBasell Tuesday in council, the forthcoming closure of the Berre refinery, which employs 370 people, of all 1270 employees of a petrochemical site voted renewed strike of 24 hours. "More than a thousand employees, including much of the leadership, voted to stop all of the site, that is to say the refinery, but also units of petrochemical and oil depots, and blocking of entrances and exits, "said Patrick Sciurca, spokesman of the Inter (CGT, CFDT, CFE-CGC, FOR, CFTC). "We're dealing with rogue bosses. They force us to take tough positions that we can further tighten, "says the union.CGT announced yesterday that the general meetings will be held in all French refineries this morning.

In 2010, the area was paralyzed by a social movement in response to the announcement of the closure of the Flanders refinery, operated by Total in Dunkirk freecreditscore. At the time, the conflict had disrupted fuel distribution in France.

At Berre, the sale of the refinery achieved no result, LyondellBasell prefer to stop the costs: it has indeed lost 400 million euros since its acquisition in 2008 and is expected to be € 120 million deficit in 2012 . "It's the only number that management has given us. They are unable to tell us what results come out the whole site with or without the refinery while a McKinsey study estimated that closing the refinery would deprive downstream from the site of 80 million margin of integration " , Patrick gets upset Sciurca.

Wall Street should once again move

The U.S. stock market should open up again on Tuesday. Future of Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 advance at 1.35% to 1174 points and 2255 points to 1.33%. Monday, Wall Street had already finished in the green.

Since the beginning of the week, investors in Europe and the United States, is won over by a wave of optimism about the outcome of the crisis of sovereign debt. "The beginning of the week is placed under the sign of hope. Investors have decided to give credit to European policy makers and international willingness to find ways to resolve the sovereign debt crisis, "economists observe in Paris broker Aurel BGC. There are "high hopes that one is engaged in the right direction towards resolving the debt crisis in Europe," say experts on their side LBBW.Other analysts, however, want to caution. The strategists of the Crédit Mutuel-CIC believe that "the improvement should not last as rumors seem exaggerated. The expansion of EFSF does not solve the structural problems in Europe, while the challenge is there. "

The spokesperson of European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Olli Rehn, Europe is considering strengthening the capacity of the European support fund for countries in trouble (EFSF). Rumors press also reported a proposed quadrupling of the Fund's lending capacity to 2000 billion euros. In turn, an official of the ECB, the Austrian Ewald Nowotny, did not rule out declines in interest rates in the euro area.But soon, the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble assured that Europeans had "no intention of bailing out" the EFSF.

Political leaders are still clearly divided on the responses to the debt crisis, while discussions on the payment of a new international loan to Greece, vital to enable it to avoid bankruptcy dragged on. At the same time discontent rises and Athens was again paralyzed Tuesday by a wave of strikes in public transport.

The euro relapse

The euro was weakening on Tuesday to below $ 1.35. Mileu in the day, the euro stood at 1.3496 dollars, against 1.3523 dollars late Monday.He had fallen in session Monday to 1.3363 dollars, its lowest level since mid-January, prior to recover.

As for commodities, gold has recovered slightly this morning at 1640 dollars an ounce after declining over the last three sessions. Oil falls sharply higher this morning in Asian trade after having dropped more than eight dollars last week. A barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in November gained 1 high quality business cards.15 dollars to 81.39 dollars in early trade, having closed up 39 cents Monday.A barrel of Brent North Sea crude for November delivery, which ended virtually unchanged Monday (-3 cents), advances, meanwhile, 95 cents to 104.89 dollars.

On the macroeconomic front, investors will monitor the housing price index calculated by S & P / Case-Shiller in the 20 largest cities in the United States, the index of consumer confidence and the Conference Board index of manufacturing activity in the Richmond Fed.

As for values ​​to be followed on Tuesday:

As for values, Goldman Sachs will intensify its restructuring efforts, after a disastrous third quarter, which could be one of the worst ever recorded by the U.S. investment bank since it went public 12 years ago, says the New York Times.Goldman Sachs will be 1.2 billion to $ 1.45 billion savings goal of operation by mid-2012, the paper said on its website, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.

The mysterious tablet that the online retailer Amazon.com Wednesday could present promises to be a star among the products' high-tech "of the season, even though the Seattle group has not yet revealed existence.Amazon Wednesday invited reporters to an event which he kept secret the subject, organized in a video production and music in Hell's Kitchen neighborhood of Manhattan.

Motorola Solutions is within the scope of an investigation by U.S. authorities, according to the Wall Street Journal, concerning a possible corruption in the course of its business in Europe.

The Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto, listed on Wall Street, announced Tuesday it had increased to 49% its stake in Canada's Ivanhoe Mines, the upper limit is included in an agreement between the two groups that intend to operate an entire mine copper and gold in Mongolia.

ONEOK announced expect to achieve a net profit of between 355 and 400 million in 2012, against 325 to 345,000,000 dollars in 2011.For its part, ONEOK Partners expects a net 740 to $ 800 million for the year 2012 against 630 to 660,000,000 for the year 2011, while natural gas volumes processed are expected to increase more than expected.

Also note, Standard & Poor's is within the scope of an investigation by the SEC, the U.S. stock market regulator, who questioned its rating of an issue of structured securities in 2007 just before the market collapse real estate, announced its parent company McGraw-Hill.

Banks: State ready to inject funds

French banks are they as strong as they claim? While Baroin, Minister of Finance, was the United States this week to reassure Americans about the health of European banks, Bercy is yet ready to draw a rescue plan, according to the Journal du Dimanche. Citing sources close to the bank and Elysium, the weekly reports that a secret crisis meeting was held in the Treasury Department Sunday, September 11. The leaders of BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, Banque Populaire, Caisse d'Epargne and Crédit mutuel have attended.

On the agenda, the capital of these institutions. While the debt crisis spreads, Europe wonders if its banks could absorb the shock of a default of Greece. Especially since the hypothesis of a failure of Athens is no longer taboo.This is why the French government is proposing to inject 10 to 15 billion euros of public money to strengthen bank capital.

Several forms of intervention would be considered, since the loan to the simple issue of preference shares (private equity voting rights) with options to purchase, understands the JDD. The initiative comes as the Bercy banks are suffering on the stock market. This week, bank stocks have suffered losses of more than 10%. Since July 1, the Societe Generale shares tumbled 61%, 58% of Crédit Agricole and BNP Paribas 53%. Aggravate the climate of distrust surrounding the French banks, groups such as Siemens or Meetic, decided to limit their exposure to these institutions payday loans. As the major U.S. money market funds.

The Elysee and the Bank of France belie

According to the JDD, Societe Generale would have accepted the plan, subject to conditions. CEO Frederic Oudéa, would have liked all the French banks are concerned to avoid pointing the weaknesses of the one or the other in particular. But Baudoin Prot, CEO of BNP Paribas, had initially refused this rescue group, burying the coup the project. It must be said that he repeats everything is that BNP Paribas does not need a capital increase. Last week, it was stepped into the breach to deny information from the Financial Times that the group was looking for a new shareholder in Qatar.

For its part, the Elysee denies the existence of a backup plan. "This is absolutely not being prepared," insisted the entourage of the Head of State to the JDD. "Banks have increased their capital by 50 billion euros since 2008.We encourage them to do, but not with public money. "Also interviewed by the Sunday newspaper, Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France said that there was" no plan ". He said French banks have "a substantial capital base, comparable to those of other European banks, and are profitable." Investors would also not fooled. "I see no sign of a run and the very idea seems preposterous."

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Park the car with his phone

This is one of the innovations that made the most about her at the Frankfurt Motor Show. The French supplier Valeo has developed a system, called Park4U Remote, which allows to park your car while remaining outside it, with his mobile phone.

The application detects the parking spot, then maneuver the car away, receding, Braque, braking, forward and contrebraque any one until it is completely parked. The Utisa has to keep its finger on the smartphone to make the whole operation.

To stop everything, just lift the index. Interest: fit into small spaces on the street or parking lot, between two poles, without damaging the vehicle. To leave, you can also get the car out of the slot with his phone, if the door opening is made difficult by the narrowness of the place.No release date is currently indicated by Valeo, which currently markets a parking assist system semi-automatically.

One thing is certain, if this product becomes public, be flying his phone will become more annoying than ever.

Automotive: car pulls herself

Player Figaro BFM

The Paris stock exchange plunges into the red

The Paris Bourse widening its losses. After an opening down 1.19%, the CAC 40 drops 2.43% to 3186.47 points in mid-session and switches under the 3200 points. In Frankfurt, the Dax lost 2.07% while in London, the FTSE loose 1.68%.

The day after a volatile session, which however ended with a small increase, investors are very cautious. On Friday, early afternoon is indeed expected U.S. monthly report on employment. This will be the only highlight of the day."There is not a measure of uncertainty before the employment figures to be published, while the fact that U.S. markets are preparing for a long weekend encourages traders to reduce their short positions," Camron says Peacock, an analyst at IG Markets.

As on Wall Street, who finished the day sharply lower yesterday, as investors take profits after four sessions of consecutive increases. This morning, Asian markets also followed this trend.

In addition to wait before the report was released, traders were disappointed by U.S. indexes mixed. The weekly jobless claims have fallen and certainly the contraction was avoided in the manufacturing sector, but construction costs and productivity plummeted.In addition, the White House confirmed the pessimism about the weakness of the recovery across the Atlantic in scaling back its growth forecasts.

Hesitation in oil markets

As for the oil markets, prices causes a wait of a dispersed way. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October lost 2 cents to 88.91 dollars a barrel while Brent North Sea crude for October delivery gained 19 cents to 114.48 dollars. In addition to the jobs report, investors feared the consequences of the violent disruption Katia approaching the U.S. coast. In the Gulf of Mexico, BP, ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell began evacuating their staff from oil platforms. The Gulf of Mexico provides a quarter of the production of black gold in the United States.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro has stabilized at 1.4238 dollar.Yesterday, the European single currency fell sharply against the dollar, within the scope of renewed concerns vis-à-vis the health of the euro area, where industrial activity contracted in August, contrary to United States.

Rising energy costs caused a 0.5% increase in producer prices in July in the euro area, as expected, but overall inflationary pressures subside to the extent that the economy of the skate zone.

Values ​​to follow

France Telecom: -0.96% to 13.36 euros

The operator has received numerous expressions of interest for its Swiss division, told Reuters CEO Stéphane Richard, noting that financial market volatility would not affect projects sales of assets of the group electronic check payday advance.

Bouygues: -1.15% to 25.87 euros

The Standard & Poor's announced that it placed the long-term rating of A-group under review with negative implications following the announcement by him of a proposed acquisition of securities.

Total: -1.83% to 33.74 euros

The oil will extend all over France its network of service stations at low prices, after tests conducted last year in dozens of outlets, according to Les Echos.

Safran: -2.12% to 27.18 euros, Suez Environnement: -4.10% to 11.11 euros

Saffron is the best candidate for an entry in the CAC 40, while Suez Environnement, whose price has fallen heavily since the beginning of the summer, should come out, say professionals in the Paris Bourse.

NYSE Euronext: -1.72% to 18.60 euros

The London Stock Exchange has confirmed a press report that it is discussing a possible settlement with LCH.Clearnet.Discussions are at a preliminary stage and there is no guarantee that it would, he said.

Arcelor-Mittal: -3.84% to 14.51 euros

The group plans to resort to short in the fourth quarter at its plant in Florange (Moselle), and will ask 600 of the 3,000 employees of the plant to take RTT in September, officials said Thursday a union source

Sanofi: -2.28% to 50.25 euros

The group confirmed Thursday it has reached an agreement with Pfizer to produce in France generic versions of Lipitor, the cholesterol featuring the American group.

Neopost: + 8.80% to 55.49 euros

The group raised its forecast of annual sales for the second time, following an accelerated growth in the second quarter, thanks to the dynamics of North America.

As for recommendations:

EDF: -1.89% to 21.24 euros

Goldman Sachs has revised down its price target on the title, which goes from 49 to 31 euros, while remaining for purchase.

Carrefour: -3.60% to 17.52 euros

HSBC lowered its recommendation to "overweight" to "neutral" and target price of 30.50 to 20 euros.

Pernod Ricard: -1.03% to 61.28 euros

Bernstein lowered its price target from 76 to 67 euros.

Stallergenes: + 0.71% to 49.75 euros

The laboratory of immuno-allergic Thursday announced a net profit up 18% in the first half to 23.7 million euros, benefiting from the "business growth" and a "moderate increase spending research and development. " In the process, Oddo is to reduce its recommendation to neutral.

MEDEF Summer University: the owners remain optimistic

The storm that hit financial markets and threats on the European and American do not worry the bosses from all over France who participated Thursday in the second day of the MEDEF Summer University organized on the campus of HEC Jouy-en-Josas (Yvelines). After facing the worst financial tsunami in September 2008, they are determined to stay the course. "Companies that seek growth, continue to seek growth. Those who curl up, continue to shrivel, says Stephen Bernard, Bernard Controls CEO and Chairman of the MEDEF TPE-ETI. The only danger could come from the banks if they change their attitudes vis-à-vis SMEs. We are regularly out on all the work done during the crisis of 2008 to pursue a genuine dialogue with the bankers.I am confident because companies can not grow without banks. "

In July, a survey conducted by the MEDEF Ile de France, reported a cautious business leaders in investment and hiring in the coming months. They showed a greater reluctance at the beginning of the year. Recent events have not changed their perception. "Business leaders know that the current financial difficulties do not have the same basis as in 2008. They are not fooled. A company is not only its market value cash till payday advance. Its value, it is men and what it produces. French banks are solid. Order books are good. The agenda is full of my business, "says Marie-Christine OGHLY, president of MEDEF Ile-de-France.

Emerging growth opportunities in

"What strikes me is the gap between the health of businesses and the macro-economy.I am reasonably optimistic. Large companies and other clients maintain their investments, "says Christian also Poyau, president of the Micropole services company that has acquired a Chinese company in May. "I just take stock of our activities in China that are developing as planned. The company fundamentals are good. We should not only focus on the U.S. economy. The world has changed. China, Brazil grow. I do not believe in a deep recession in the United States. I am confident because companies have growth opportunities in the world. " This observation is also that of Christophe de Margerie, Total CEO: "The growth in emerging markets is not to our detriment. It helps a lot when things go less well, "said the boss in this major group, listed on CAC 40, who attended a session on the theme" Réespérer. "A word that bosses are determined to make them.

Wall Street should be on guard before the Fed

Wall Street holds its breath. In the wake of a sharp drop in session, and two hours of opening, the contracts are in equilibrium on the Dow Jones (+0.03% to 11,134 points), Nasdaq (0.09 % to 2113 points) and the S & P (+0.02% to 1157 points).

As in Europe and Asia this morning, the New York Stock Exchange on Friday waiting to learn more about the measures to be taken by the Fed to support the U.S. economy threatened by recession. Ben Bernanke, head of the institution, will speak Friday at 4:00 p.m. (French time) to his counterparts at the traditional central bankers in Jackson Hole Symposium, Wyoming. The Fed could launch a new program of quantitative easing, but many stakeholders are concerned that expectations may be disappointed.However, "if Ben Bernanke said that the need for further action is not obvious, it means that the economic outlook is less black than starting to think many investors, 'the economists broker Aurel BGC.

GDP in the menu

Before this appointment, investors will read the second estimate of GDP for the second quarter (14.30), the first being very disappointed. Growth could however be further revised down 0.2 point to 1.1% annual rate. The second estimate of the index of consumer sentiment in August is also the program cheap credit report.

As for currencies, the euro resumed slightly against the dollar to a few hours of the speech of Ben Bernanke. Around 11 am, the euro was worth 1.4440 dollars against 1.4378 dollars on Thursday in 21 hours. The wait also dominates the side of the oil markets.A barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery was trading at 110.25 dollars on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London, down 37 cents, while in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of "light sweet crude" (WTI) for the same maturity lost 35 cents to 84.95 dollars.

Values ​​of the day

On the corporate side, Tiffany, Madison Square Garden, Frontline and Royal Bank of Canada must publish.

HollyFrontier reported a dividend increase of 17% to 8.75 cents.MTS Systems also announced a 25% increase in its quarterly dividend.

Pandora Internet Radio, which made its IPO in June, on Thursday posted a net loss of $ 3.18 million in the second quarter of its fiscal year lag, and a turnover more than doubled, exceeding analysts' expectations.

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts has reported a quarterly profit of $ 8.8 million or 12 cents per share against 2.2 million a year earlier. Sales jumped 11% to $ 97.9 million.

Jean-Paul Chifflet: "We have no difficulty in funding us"

LE FIGARO – Your share price has marked a record low 10 August, worse than worst days of 2009. What's going on?

Jean-Paul CHIFFLET – We are in paradox. You mention the low of the action but at the same time, the Crédit Agricole group in the first half net banking record since its inception! We are not the only ones to be attacked on the stock exchange, the whole financial sector is affected (banking and insurance) and even beyond all publicly traded securities.

So why this near-panic investors?

The world is experiencing a structural crisis that has three components: economic, financial and political. This is the first time they are collected and their entanglement makes the situation even more complex. In 2007-2008, the difficulties relating solely to the financial sphere.Today, investor concerns about the economy and growth are strong, with the feeling now that the recovery will be forthcoming in the United States. Then there are doubts about the European sovereign debt and U.S. policy of rigor to establish, particularly in Europe, and the governance of the euro area.

Given the effects of contagion, some raise the specter of a liquidity crisis for banks. Feel the French worried? The are you yourself?

No. Crédit Agricole we have not seen any concern from our customers. In all respects, including liquidity, our situation is good. Crédit Agricole is one of the banks rated by rating agencies in the world. We are the first custodian bank in France, which gives us a significant advantage in terms of liquidity.We have no difficulty in funding us.

U.S. money market funds, however, withdrew funding for European banks …

European banks, and French in particular, must adapt to this new situation. These funds will not be around for two or three months at least. But there are other sources of funding. Based on its treasuries in 25 countries, Crédit Agricole has direct access to central banks, companies or asset managers in Europe, Asia or the Middle East. Our financing program and long-term market was carried out at 90% at end-July. We also have available cash reserves of more than 120 billion euros. I am perfectly calm.

Have you been asked by the New York Fed on your cash?

No.Each controller on every continent requires banks to be mindful of their liquidity. It is a measure of attention that seems normal.

Why the French banks were they stigmatized?

French banks have been more battered by the markets than their European counterparts. The fears that we faced were related to our exposure to sovereign debt and doubts concerning reports of France. Add to this the fact that French banks capture a significant portion of funds from money market funds U.S. $ 200 billion on 800 billion allocated to European banks. This has raised specific questions about the ability of our banks to adjust.

Have you read this summer fiction of Le Monde, which envisioned a nightmare scenario for your group?

This did not please me, I did know.But I respect the freedom of the press.

How do you change the economy?

The recovery will be slow, slower than expected. But so far, we do not get a second recession.

This degradation should it encourage regulators to soften their demands on the banks?

I have only one message: we will adapt to the regulations. However, it would be nice if regulators take the time to add the impact on banks of all the new requirements, capital liquidity, through taxes and surcharges for systemic institutions. Banks are the sherpas of the economy. If their backpack is too heavy and that the oxygen is reduced, it will mechanically eventually impact on growth.It is ultimately the competitiveness of the European economy, these reforms threaten.

Are you going to trim down for credit offered?

Crédit Agricole is the main partner of the French economy. We are the largest financier in France with 471 billion euros of outstanding loans. They have always grown and we want to enroll in a sustainable way in supporting growth. But of course we will have to adapt according to the real economy and the requirements of regular lators.

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"Greece is less than expected in the Crédit Agricole

Carrefour and Auchan bet on the return

The new school year has begun. The shelves of supermarkets anyway. Intersection and Auchan hypermarkets which have lost market share since early January, play their all to save the year. Their goal: to take advantage of this period, the largest in terms of sales after Christmas, to bring back customers and especially to force them to remain faithful to the brand.

Carrefour, the worst off of two, decided to strike hard, even if release into the wild to 1.3 billion euros of gift vouchers. The never-seen! "Our premium of 100 euros back complements the allowance paid back Friday by the government," said Noël Prioux, executive director of Carrefour France. The group breaks new ground by distributing 13 million in its hypermarkets checkbooks containing 10 vouchers of 10 Euro, valid for 5 weeks and from 30 euros to buy.The customer can not spend only 2 per week, in two predefined rays associated with the start, the traditional paper products and linens to leather, textile (women, men, baby) and electricity and the tooling. "We make a significant investment to support our customers in a key moment when they are faced with many expenses in a difficult environment," says Noel Prioux, which must succeed this time, after a failed September 2010 and the beginning of year catastrophic. The poor performance of the domestic market have already caused the departure of its CEO, James McCann, and sealed half-year results of the group.

Increase traffic

In addition to the premium back promotions in other departments. Carrefour also has finally increased the share of its own brand.When performing these three devices, the reductions can approach 80% back on the shelves, supports the group. If the brand has loyal customers and win back others with this, it has also not forgotten the food department. "As for offering toys at the end of year deals on the products at the start of school is only profitable for the traffic they bring," says one consultant. And provided that once in-store customers take the opportunity to make further purchases. "We've lowered our prices in August 1000 on food references: the effort for the products most frequently purchased by our customers, everyday products (dairy products and desserts, for example), and the products popular with families, "said Noël Prioux, which means" to rediscover Carrefour. "The objective is clear: "re strong business momentum in the last quarter."

Auchan and Système U have introduced similar devices. Thursday and Friday, customers who buy 23 items in the school are being taught northerner all of the purchase paid in vouchers to spend in the entire store … next week. In addition, the company offers a special on the shelf textiles from there too in addition to its promotional programs most common in the food department.