"China underestimated its trade surplus

Lefigaro.fr / jdf.com Do you think China can show a trade deficit in March, as Beijing has warned?

Antoine Brunet regard to China, everything is possible! There are thus two sources to monitor developments in foreign trade of China: Beijing publishes official figures very soon, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released later the algebraic sum of trade between China and each of its trading partners. In general, the external surplus established by the IMF is almost twice higher than that displayed by Beijing.

China over time, underestimate the reality of its surplus. For example, the government does not include exports of Chinese subsidiaries of foreign groups, which is not justified economically. This largely explains the discrepancy with the IMF data.

Why China would try to hide it a part of its trade surpluses?

This strategy is an integral part of Chinese diplomacy to delay the possible revaluation of the yuan. Plus his "score" is impressive, the more the world takes umbrage, and China shows a healthy insolent foreign trade, the more she exposes herself to scolding of its trading partners. Countries suffering from sluggish growth, combined with a deficit due to China, very legitimately claim a revaluation of the yuan.

Do you, as some analysts that Beijing let the yuan rise by around 4 to 8% in the coming months?

Recent Chinese statements are not encouraging and should be completed in arm wrestling. The Chinese government has the support of the people and businesses.They know that the prosperity of China is largely due to the undervaluation of the yuan.

Beijing also likes to test the true responsiveness of Westerners. China will probably go to the balance of power. How will this happen? It will withstand international pressure calling for a higher yuan. Only if the U.S. put in place tariffs of around 40% on Chinese goods that China will negotiate an appreciation of the yuan.

China Has no interest in lowering the yuan?

Some Western commentators are their wishful thinking and believe that Beijing revalue the yuan to fight against inflation and speculative bubbles. But China did not need this tool.To reduce inflation it suffered through the commodity denominated in dollars, China supports the current rise in the price of the greenback against the euro. It pretty much control the evolution of the Shanghai Composite Index through exchange controls that isolates the Chinese market from the rest of the world. Finally, it relies on direct supervision of mortgage lending to limit the rise in house prices.

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