The economy will rebound after the earthquake

The destruction resulting from the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on Friday are still difficult to assess. Nevertheless, for many economists, which provide a parallel with the Kobe earthquake of 1995, the impact of the disaster on Japan's economic growth will in the medium term, positive rather than negative.

While the cost of the quake could amount to several tens of billions of dollars. In the short term, the destruction caused are enormous: infrastructure damaged production facilities at the stop, the areas impacted are placing great weight in the economy. If the worst-affected region, that of Tohoku, north-east coast, only 8% of Japanese GDP, that of Kanto, which houses including Tokyo, by contrast produces 40% of national wealth.

GDP contraction in first quarter

Besides stopping the oil refinery of Cosmo Oil Ichihara, east of Tokyo, the activity of the Japanese nuclear industry, which produces between 25% and 30% of national electricity production, is seriously compromised. Eleven of the fifty reactors are currently stalled, while an explosion in one of two plants in Fukushima, northern-eastern countries, has caused extensive damage and the evacuation of all population within a radius of 20 km.

"The temporary closure of production plants and oil refineries, and the interruption of power plants should have an impact on the country's production. GDP could result in decreased again slightly in the first quarter, "predicted the AFP and Wolfgang Leim, an economist at Commerzbank.

Growth boosted by reconstruction

In the medium term however, the Japanese economy could rebound strongly. Drawing a parallel with the Kobe earthquake in 1995, Takuji Okubo, senior economist at Societe Generale, said that reconstruction should generate an increase in activity, and the need for people to renew their property damaged boost consumption. The sectors of construction, steel and telecommunications sectors should benefit fully from the increased activity post earthquake.

"After the earthquake of 1995, Japan's GDP grew 1.9% in 1995 and 2.6% in 1996, while the average growth of the Japanese economy over this period was 1.5% .Consumption grew 2.2% between 1995 and 1996 against 1.1% on average between 1995 and 2004, "said Takuji Okubo.

Risk on debt

The Japanese bank Nomura, which also anticipates strong growth in the Japanese economy in the medium term, says his side as the stimulus state has played a key role in 1995 to revive the economy. "Immediately after the earthquake, the government passed an emergency budget which has contributed 0.3 points to GDP growth in the second quarter 1995 and 0.5 points in the third quarter. We anticipate a similar response from the authorities, "notes Peter Westaway, economist at Nomura.

The opposition conservative Japanese has already announced its support for extraordinary measures promised by the center-left government.A situation which should not, however, help improve the financial health of Japan, whose debt stood at 200% of GDP. The rating agency Standard and Poor's has also recently lowered the debt rating of Japan, considering that the country's budget deficit will remain high in coming years. But Moody's did its part Friday that the earthquake should not cause a subsequent breakdown of the score attributed to the Japanese debt.

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Didier Migaud, it's not just the TFR reform

"In Germany, they were clean before us." This Sunday, Didier Migaud first President of the Court of Auditors, relied on the report of the institution on fiscal convergence between France and Germany to remind the Government that the tax reform should focus on removing tax loopholes . It is a matter to be "addressed first," he told the Europe 1 radio mic.

Didier Migaud, the finding is indeed clear: "The attitude of the income tax is too narrow and too often questioned."It calls for review of certain practices, such as "devices in Overseas" and "tax loopholes on corporate taxes" that may "cause problems" or "tax loopholes on tax income, which can be considered to excessive levels and contribute to the tax on income from a certain point, becomes regressive. It raises issues of tax justice, "he says.

Do not focus on the TFR

The president of the ECA is concerned that the current debate, focusing on the TFR, not moving in the wrong direction cheapest personal loan rates. Of course, "reform may well be envisaged" because this tax "now has a rate higher than the original even though the return on capital is now lower than at its inception" .However, the ISF must "not necessarily be the main topic" of discussion on tax reform, led by the government. "When you look at the weight of the ISF in the French tax system: 4 billion euros in revenues, while the overall property tax is around 33 billion euros," he recalls.

Conversely, tax loopholes should be the central concern "given the explosion we have witnessed in recent years," he says. He added that "the consequences of the 2011 decisions in terms of reducing fiscal and social niches are low. The student can do better. "

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Wall Street plays prudence

The U.S. stock market opened slightly lower on Thursday. The Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively recede into effect from 0.41% to 1,315.52 points and 0.81% at 2766.34 points. For its part, the Dow Jones was down 0.40% at 12,191.20 points. Wednesday's session was mixed on Wall Street.

Egypt: Mubarak talks tough

Egypt returns to center stage. President Hosni Mubarak has indeed warned that the army would intervene in cases of "chaos, to take things in hand." This hardening of tone immediately led to renewed tension on oil markets: a barrel of light sweet crude for March delivery rose to 86.90 dollars while that of Brent North Sea with identical maturity exceeded $ 102.Moreover, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IEA) has further revised upwards its forecast on Thursday in world oil demand for 2010 and 2011 respectively to 87.8 and 89.3 million barrels per day (bpd ), mainly because of Chinese consumption, which set new records.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro lost ground against the dollar on Thursday, traders reaping some profits after a sharp rebound of the euro, but remained anchored over $ 1.36. Around 14:00 in Paris, the euro bought 1.3727 dollars against 1.36 dollars Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the United States, the weekly jobless claims rose less than expected at 383,000 against 419,000 recorded the previous week, and 410,000 enrollments anticipated by the consensus. It thus reached its lowest level since July 5, 2008.Pending the publication of wholesale inventories in December (around 16 hours), investors prefer to be cautious, however. Also note, the U.S. Treasury Department will unveil the budget figures in January to 20 hours.

NYSE Euronext to follow

The side of values, NYSE Euronext title should still be surrounded by this very Thursday at the New York Stock Exchange. NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse announced Wednesday that in "advanced talks" over a possible merger in which shareholders of the German company would be majority, with 59% to 60% of the shares.

The telecom equipment and computer Cisco has again alarmed investors by publishing Wednesday after market close a net profit of 1.52 billion for the second quarter of fiscal 2010-11, falling by 17.9% and slightly above expectations.

Also after market, the distributor of fresh produce Whole Foods Market has announced a profit of 88.7 million dollars (+ 61%). Turnover was up 14% to $ 3 billion and its gross margin rose slightly to 34.6% against 34.3%.

The world number one Hewlett-Packard (HP) introduced a new tablet computer called TouchPad, using the operating system of the late producer of Palm PDAs to compete with Apple iPad.

Also in the technology sector, according to the Wall Street Journal, Twitter is in negotiations with several suitors, including Facebook and Google."Leaders from both Facebook and Google, among other companies, had discussions somewhat inconsistent with those of Twitter in recent months to discuss the prospect of an acquisition of messaging service," said the newspaper, citing " People familiar with the matter. "

The site Eurosportbet TF1 is for sale

Qu'Eurosportbet not have results "ridiculous" in terms of customers, but "economically, it is not satisfactory," Nonce Paolini launched this Friday on LCI. So he said: "If there is a bid, we will look, we must be pragmatic."

It must be said that after the kick-off explosive opening of the gaming market online 8 June 2010, supported by World Cup football in July, the enthusiasm of internet users has quickly faded. Many of the side-operators, the market "was very disappointing," says the boss of the first TV channel in France, which states that this niche is not its core business.

"I was skeptical about the ability of the French market to have as many operators," he said on LCI.Indeed, a quarantine approvals (21 per poker, paris 12 for sports and seven for horse paris) were awarded to thirty operators. Three operators have the three accreditations: BetClick, PMU and SPS Betting France.

Finally, Nonce Paolini denounces paris online for a "regulation that is not favorable from a system that is very heavy, the heaviest in Europe fast cash."

The French game bet on the long term

The French game, which hitherto had a monopoly with the PMU, announced Wednesday a nice earnings growth: 180,000 punters in 2010, housing starts jumped 112% to EUR 91 million and its share market amounted to 15%.

But his boss is far from jumping for joy. "We must be patient, insists Christophe Blanchard-Dignac, which has imposed the term on the Paris sports online.His goal has not changed with its site ParionsWeb!, The French gaming market is a quarter of internet sports paris in 2012.

(With agencies)

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The police charged with batons, tear gas and water cannons. Photo credits: ANDREW Biraj / REUTERS

Orange is preparing a related response KINECTS

Wednesday night, Steve Ballmer, the Microsoft boss made his show at CES in Las Vegas, starring in the new recreational features of the Xbox game console and Kinetc, the accessory that everyone becomes a joystick . Soon the phrase "Xbox, show me a movie" will have access to a selection of films. The user can not only play, but zapping the finger and voice.

Similar functionality is in the cards at Orange Valley, a subsidiary of Orange, with Keenu. "The Orange Box will include a 3D camera that will play as the controller, but also to control his TV with a hand gesture," says William Oulés, development manager at Orange Valley.The new features allowed by the camera "3D are numerous and are the technical prowess, according to William Oulés, since the boxes were much less powerful processor than Microsoft's console.

However, by Orange Keenu allow both to change the channel with a simple hand movement, than playing as the controller Same day payday loans. Facial recognition, achieved through 3D also allows management of user profiles, see parental controls. Keenu will also be connected to the Internet, with its application bundle. For example, Géonews, which will display a 3D globe and to "manipulate" to choose the area of the world which we seek information. Also on the photo storage sites such as Picassa, simply drag the photos, with his hand. The 3D camera movement cue, moving images, photos, glue, can make connections.Finally, Keenu conference also offers a vision improved with the 3D capture. Again, face recognition lets you create personalized calendars s'afficent by the person appearing before the camera. A function can also blur the background, useful for teens who do not rank their room!

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Unedic provides an improvement in employment in 2011

"Elements of framing material" for the renegotiation of the Agreement UI to start in January. Unedic has updated its forecast for 2011 Wednesday. It provides 74,000 jobs created, 93,000 unemployed registered in category A to less employment center and a 99,000 drop in job seekers compensated. A "significant improvement" compared to projections from September. Result, the cumulative deficit at the end of 2011 is revised downwards, based two billion in three months – to $ 11 billion – thanks to a significant improvement in projected revenue contribution.

"The system UI is very responsive to job creation," justified Bonnand Gaby, President of the CFDT Unedic."We can not continue to EUR 15 billion of accumulated deficit reached during the last crisis, welcomed Geoffroy Roux de Bezieux, vice president of MEDEF regime.

Unedic has also prepared a "preliminary assessment" after 18 months of exercise of unemployment insurance agreement, which expires March 31. The agreement, which was signed in early 2009 by the CFDT trade union side, there were three major changes from the previous. First, an opening of a right to compensation as early as four months of contributions (cons six previously) and secondly, the creation of a single chain of prorata on the basis of "one day paid, compensated one day," and thirdly , extending up to 28 months of the maximum contribution for a claim for compensation (for those under 50 years) cheap pay day loans.Nearly half a million unemployed have ultimately benefited from greater rights than they would with the old agreement, 51,000 have lost. The winners are the unemployed who have contributed less than 6 months (mostly young and insecure) and who were not previously compensated. The introduction of a single chain has generated gains for 76% of recipients.

"In less spending"

This improvement has a cost: 1.2 billion! "The bill could be 50% higher if the beneficiaries had used all their rights," said Gaby Bonnand. "Many unemployed found a job before arriving at the end of the compensation period, which translates into lower spending," said Geoffroy Roux de Bezieux. Therefore little risk that the general framework of the present Convention comes into question during the upcoming negotiation.

The war of currencies explained on an air of rap

The war of currencies is not a Chinese puzzle only for G20 countries. It probably is more to public opinion, which does not always understand why the Chinese and Americans are in conflict. The company Next Media Animation has perhaps found a solution. Specializing in video lagged news, this company of over 3600 employees created by the "serial entrepreneur" Lai Chee Ying (Jimmy Lai or English) and based in Hong Kong, just to make a video where one see President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, compete on an air of rap.

"Without Bretton Woods, you'd be in the same situation that Argentina"

In the video, Obama tells Jintao that he must stop manipulating its currency. An undervalued yuan raises the price of American products. For his part, recalls Jintao's successor George W.Bush that he is "responsible for the recession." "Do not ask us to make concessions no fax payday loans. You're in no position to consider myself a fisherman. Without Bretton Woods, you'd be in the same situation as Argentina, "he quips at Obama, we see drink the cup because of the waves of U.S. deficits.

As a chorus, two singers trying to bring them to reason: China and U.S. need each other. The first purchases of treasury bills of the second, which buys its products. And indeed it works: Hu Jintao and Barack Obama end up joining the two singers on the track.Not sure that the two presidents will begin the dance steps at the time to meet in Washington next January …

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Pensions: new gestures toward unions

A final opening on the pension reform. And a pipeline project to try to revive the thread very quickly with the unions, once voted the text. The government, firm vis-à-vis the "blockers", wants to show it to the end "blocks" not all changes in its text.

Labour Minister, Eric Woerth, was preparing Wednesday to give its green light to an amendment of the chairman of the Senate centrist group, Nicolas About. This amendment provides, "from the first half of 2014, a" national debate "to a rethinking of the entire pension system. This thinking would be to introduce "greater equity" in the system, considering "a universal spot or notional accounts. This solemn undertaking has no immediate practical significance. But it responds to strong demand of the CFDT.And without denying oneself, since the establishment of such a system would require at least a decade, while the horizon of the government reform is set at 2018-2020.

The gesture is there only for the central Francois Chereque, in the hope that it dissociates itself from other unions? "It used to centrists, whose weight is crucial in the Senate, two key players settle the case same day payday loan lenders. The reaction of "Mr. Retreats" of the CFDT, is also clear: "It does not alter our vision for reform, so our attitude, warns Jean-Louis Malys. The government is going in reverse: he ended by accepting the reform we ask the questions that should have been asked before! "However, the CFDT did not spit on this announcement:" Since the beginning, we have achieved all that we can reap. "

"Grenelle of Youth"

So much for the immediate future.In a second step, the head of state is trying to open a cons-fire after the redesign launch a consultation on youth employment. Grenelle, general condition or national level? The form is not stopped. "We are ready but we expect that the sequence is complete retirement because we do not want the unions take it as a diversionary strategy," said one minister. "The president wants to separate fronts, says an expert in communication. But the head-to-tail which is to move youth retreats will be difficult to sell to the opinion even if the unions can not say that they lose interest. "

Nicolas Sarkozy has appointed Laurent Wauquiez, the Secretary of State for Employment, steer this issue become a priority since the invasion in protests against pension reform high school and college students. It must be said that the stakes are high.The "situation is dramatic," judged in August Jean-Claude Mailly (FOR), requesting a dialogue on the subject. In vain. The plan for youth employment focused on alternating helped limit the damage, especially with the signing of 413,000 apprenticeship contracts since mid-2009. But it has not prevented the unemployment rate for 15-24 years, one of the worst in Europe, flying from 6 points in two years to exceed 23%.

Yet the unions are for the idea of a great national consultation on youth employment 24 hour payday loans . "The string is big, Jean-Claude Mailly regrets. The government wants to give the illusion of a social dialogue while still in his boots right about pensions. "Even tone to the CFDT, which has long claimed, however, measures for young people."That does not calm the students," Judge Herve Garnier, National Secretary for Youth. "The challenge on pensions will remain intact," says Jean Grosset, Number 2, UNSA. But if they are "not fooled by the maneuver, all the unions will meet present if the government asks them. Just as the MEDEF and the CGPME. But ultimately, the social partners would prefer to enter only the subject. "We may be more legitimate, given the state of relations between government and unions, to open this debate," a representative view of metallurgy.

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Take profits on Asia market

In the aftermath of a session that has seen Chinese and Japanese indices gain between 1% and 2% as investors take profits on Friday. "Market participants readjust their positions after strong gains yesterday," said Kenichi Hirano, operating manager at Tachibana Securities.

Therefore: the Nikkei 225 Index was down 0.55% to 9530.57 points. Financial markets also continue to fear the strong yen, especially after the Prime Minister of Japan, Naoto Kan. "I am very concerned about the situation," he says. The G20 agreed on the fact that excessive fluctuations in exchange rates were undesirable. From this point of view, the sharp rise in the yen may be considered an excessive fluctuation. "In this context, the Japanese government reiterated that it stood ready to intervene again on the foreign exchange market, "when necessary".

Japan: Production indutriel revised worse than expected

But most investors believe it will become difficult for Japan to intervene to depreciate its currency, following criticism that his government has issued on South Korea and China. Japan criticizes Korean leaders want to weaken their currencies and the Chinese do not allow to appreciate their own.

On the macroeconomic front, industrial production in Japan fell 0.5% in August compared to July, and not 0.3% as previously estimated in premirèe approach the Ministry of Economy , Trade and Industry.It is his third consecutive monthly decline.

Shanghai rises over 2%

As for values, Toyota will loose 1.77% to 2,878 yen, Canon 2.04% to 3830 yen, Mitsubishi, or 2.77% to 385 yen. Banks are also abused: Mizuho Financial Group cowardly 4.9% to 116 yen and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group 2.49% to 2389 yen.

Chinese markets, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong lost 0.34% to 23,772.25 points, after the yuan rose Friday to its highest level against the dollar since June at 6.6497 yuan to one dollar, cons 6.6582 Thursday. And before the publication of a report by the U.S. Treasury could accuse Beijing of manipulating its currency.In contrast, the Shanghai Stock Exchange shows an unexpected increase of 2.51% to RMB 3305.295.

Currencies: the "war of words" between Beijing and Washington continues

In the battle of depreciation of currencies in which they are engaged, the war of words continues between China and the United States. It's now the turn of the Spokesman for the Chinese Minister of Commerce, Yao Jian, to say that the yuan's exchange rate should not be the "scapegoat for U.S. domestic problems."

Moreover, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China rose 6.1% in September on a year to 8.38 billion, after a sharp slowdown in August, the government said Friday.During the first nine months, foreign companies have invested 74.34 billion U.S. dollars in China, or 16.6% more than during the same period last year, said the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, Yao Jian.

Singapore and Shanghai in the green

In other areas of the region, the decline is generally Scholarships Taiwan was down 0.22% at 8197.53 points, Seoul lost 0.18% to 3974.58 points, Sydney is down slightly from 0.24% dropped 0.71% and Bombay to 20,351.23 points. Only Singapore is moving in the green: 0.65% to 3215.91 points.

Crude prices were steady Friday in electronic trading in Asia, supported by continued erosion of the dollar, analysts said. In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for November delivery lost 4 cents to 82.65 dollars.That of Brent North Sea maturing in December took a cent to 84.21 dollars, its first day of trading on that date.