Jean-Paul Chifflet: "We have no difficulty in funding us"

LE FIGARO – Your share price has marked a record low 10 August, worse than worst days of 2009. What's going on?

Jean-Paul CHIFFLET – We are in paradox. You mention the low of the action but at the same time, the Crédit Agricole group in the first half net banking record since its inception! We are not the only ones to be attacked on the stock exchange, the whole financial sector is affected (banking and insurance) and even beyond all publicly traded securities.

So why this near-panic investors?

The world is experiencing a structural crisis that has three components: economic, financial and political. This is the first time they are collected and their entanglement makes the situation even more complex. In 2007-2008, the difficulties relating solely to the financial sphere.Today, investor concerns about the economy and growth are strong, with the feeling now that the recovery will be forthcoming in the United States. Then there are doubts about the European sovereign debt and U.S. policy of rigor to establish, particularly in Europe, and the governance of the euro area.

Given the effects of contagion, some raise the specter of a liquidity crisis for banks. Feel the French worried? The are you yourself?

No. Crédit Agricole we have not seen any concern from our customers. In all respects, including liquidity, our situation is good. Crédit Agricole is one of the banks rated by rating agencies in the world. We are the first custodian bank in France, which gives us a significant advantage in terms of liquidity.We have no difficulty in funding us.

U.S. money market funds, however, withdrew funding for European banks …

European banks, and French in particular, must adapt to this new situation. These funds will not be around for two or three months at least. But there are other sources of funding. Based on its treasuries in 25 countries, Crédit Agricole has direct access to central banks, companies or asset managers in Europe, Asia or the Middle East. Our financing program and long-term market was carried out at 90% at end-July. We also have available cash reserves of more than 120 billion euros. I am perfectly calm.

Have you been asked by the New York Fed on your cash?

No.Each controller on every continent requires banks to be mindful of their liquidity. It is a measure of attention that seems normal.

Why the French banks were they stigmatized?

French banks have been more battered by the markets than their European counterparts. The fears that we faced were related to our exposure to sovereign debt and doubts concerning reports of France. Add to this the fact that French banks capture a significant portion of funds from money market funds U.S. $ 200 billion on 800 billion allocated to European banks. This has raised specific questions about the ability of our banks to adjust.

Have you read this summer fiction of Le Monde, which envisioned a nightmare scenario for your group?

This did not please me, I did know.But I respect the freedom of the press.

How do you change the economy?

The recovery will be slow, slower than expected. But so far, we do not get a second recession.

This degradation should it encourage regulators to soften their demands on the banks?

I have only one message: we will adapt to the regulations. However, it would be nice if regulators take the time to add the impact on banks of all the new requirements, capital liquidity, through taxes and surcharges for systemic institutions. Banks are the sherpas of the economy. If their backpack is too heavy and that the oxygen is reduced, it will mechanically eventually impact on growth.It is ultimately the competitiveness of the European economy, these reforms threaten.

Are you going to trim down for credit offered?

Crédit Agricole is the main partner of the French economy. We are the largest financier in France with 471 billion euros of outstanding loans. They have always grown and we want to enroll in a sustainable way in supporting growth. But of course we will have to adapt according to the real economy and the requirements of regular lators.

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In China, inflation still climbing

The Chinese inflation beating record after record. In June, the price index reached a new high for three years, to 6.4% yoy. A figure up sharply from the month of May, when inflation was already high, however, to 5.5%.

This increase is mainly the result of rising food prices. After droughts and floods that have occurred in China in the spring, the cost of power has indeed increased by 14.4% in June over a year. Pork, the first meat consumed in the country, even took 57.1%, said the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Faced with the risk of social tensions generated by the rising cost of living, the Chinese government has done since the fall of 2010 the fight against inflation its top priority in economic matters.The central bank has already raised five times the interest rates since last October, and nearly ten times the rate of reserve requirements for banks, hoping to slow the pressure on prices. As a result, the volume of lending has slowed, and China's economic growth begins to suffer from these austerity measures. In the first quarter, it has reached "only" 9.7%, after 10.3% in 2010.

The tax threshold raised

If inflation remains particularly high, many analysts believe it has reached in June, its highest level. The figure published on Saturday morning is indeed partly the result of the recovery policy conducted by the Chinese government during the crisis, when control measures against inflation for their part have not yet produced their full effect."The rise in prices should slow down continuously from June to between 4% and 4.5% by the end of the year and remain at that level for several years," predicts and Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in a statement.

The Chinese government had already announced in June that the goal of a previously displayed inflation contained below 4% in 2011 would not be attainable. Beijing should try to stick to a figure of 5%. Until such a slowdown, the tax threshold will be raised in the country from 1 September to restore purchasing power to lower classes. The new tax threshold is now set at 320 euros monthly income.

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Life insurance less attractive

The French preferred to shun their investment. For six months, the payments on life insurance contracts are in free fall. In one year, they were down 12% at the end of May But it is true that last year at the same time, the collection was exceptionally strong.

His back is not what concerns most insurers. They are especially concerned more and more savers to make withdrawals from their contracts. These purchases (and capital paid after the death of the policyholder) jumped 15% in one year, and even 29% on the single month of May. According to the French Federation of Insurance Companies (FFSA), the movement affects all contracts, better filled with more modest. Crisis forces, some French draw on their savings to finance their spending. Others are shifting their capital to other investments, including real estate faxless pay day loans.The erosion yield contracts (3.4% on average in 2010) encourages them. As uncertainty about the sustainability of the tax advantages of life insurance.

Even the famous Afer the contract is affected. The G76, a syndicate of agents of the historical savings association, a phenomenon of outflows unprecedented explosion in the number of closings of contracts for two months, and decreased – for the first time – the number of members . In the weeks preceding the general meeting of Afer, June 29, the G76 has spared no criticism of the current leaders, denouncing particular problems of governance and lack of independence of Association vis-à-vis Aviva, the insurer that manages the contract Afer. Two points on which he joined the SOS Principles Afer. Further discussions that may leave investors confused again.

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Berlin expects 100,000 workers East

Workers from eight countries of Eastern Europe – except Romania and Bulgaria – are free to seek work in Germany since May 1. Fearing an influx of immigrants, Germany had delayed for two years opening its labor markets to new members of the former Soviet bloc. But with the shortage of manpower caused by the economic upturn, it now welcomes their arrival as an opportunity. To defuse criticism, Berlin has announced a tightening of controls on illegal work and increased vigilance against "dumping" wages.

The federal Department of Labor expects an influx of nearly 100,000 people per year. "Most are young, educated and mobile," the ministry said. Candidates for a job in Germany should mainly come from two neighboring countries: Poland and the Czech Republic.Faced with a shortage of engineers, computer scientists, executives, doctors, caregivers and skilled workers, especially in construction, German companies consider the arrival of these immigrants as an opportunity . But they will not be enough to fill the shortage.

Fear of unions

The Federation of German Chambers of Commerce estimated that it would bring in about 400,000 immigrants a year to compensate for the lack of manpower. German MEP, Nadja Hirsch sees open borders as an opportunity. "Germany is in dire need of skilled workers," she says, while the labor force is projected to decline by 6.5 million people by 2025. "Such a decline can be offset by better education, better integration of women into the labor market or the lengthening of working life.We need foreign workers and would have opened our borders sooner, "she laments.

In 2009, Germany and Austria were the only countries in the European Union to postpone by two years of opening their labor markets to nationals from eight former communist countries that joined in 2004 (Poland, Czech Republic Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia).

But since the economic situation has changed. The unemployment rate in Germany (7.3%) declined further in April. The number of unemployed to fall permanently below 3 million in 2011. While they had hands to negotiate wage increases consequent industry by industry, unions are concerned that the influx of immigrants helps sustain job insecurity and wage dumping.

Berlin has announced tighter controls on illegal workers and wage dumping."We will strengthen controls particularly in the construction industry, cleaning of buildings, medical care and food," said German Minister Ursula von der Leyen. The finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, promises more systematic control. "The controllers of black workers are 150 additional posts this year. For 2012 and 2013, we still want to create 100 more per year, "he said.

The economy will rebound after the earthquake

The destruction resulting from the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on Friday are still difficult to assess. Nevertheless, for many economists, which provide a parallel with the Kobe earthquake of 1995, the impact of the disaster on Japan's economic growth will in the medium term, positive rather than negative.

While the cost of the quake could amount to several tens of billions of dollars. In the short term, the destruction caused are enormous: infrastructure damaged production facilities at the stop, the areas impacted are placing great weight in the economy. If the worst-affected region, that of Tohoku, north-east coast, only 8% of Japanese GDP, that of Kanto, which houses including Tokyo, by contrast produces 40% of national wealth.

GDP contraction in first quarter

Besides stopping the oil refinery of Cosmo Oil Ichihara, east of Tokyo, the activity of the Japanese nuclear industry, which produces between 25% and 30% of national electricity production, is seriously compromised. Eleven of the fifty reactors are currently stalled, while an explosion in one of two plants in Fukushima, northern-eastern countries, has caused extensive damage and the evacuation of all population within a radius of 20 km.

"The temporary closure of production plants and oil refineries, and the interruption of power plants should have an impact on the country's production. GDP could result in decreased again slightly in the first quarter, "predicted the AFP and Wolfgang Leim, an economist at Commerzbank.

Growth boosted by reconstruction

In the medium term however, the Japanese economy could rebound strongly. Drawing a parallel with the Kobe earthquake in 1995, Takuji Okubo, senior economist at Societe Generale, said that reconstruction should generate an increase in activity, and the need for people to renew their property damaged boost consumption. The sectors of construction, steel and telecommunications sectors should benefit fully from the increased activity post earthquake.

"After the earthquake of 1995, Japan's GDP grew 1.9% in 1995 and 2.6% in 1996, while the average growth of the Japanese economy over this period was 1.5% .Consumption grew 2.2% between 1995 and 1996 against 1.1% on average between 1995 and 2004, "said Takuji Okubo.

Risk on debt

The Japanese bank Nomura, which also anticipates strong growth in the Japanese economy in the medium term, says his side as the stimulus state has played a key role in 1995 to revive the economy. "Immediately after the earthquake, the government passed an emergency budget which has contributed 0.3 points to GDP growth in the second quarter 1995 and 0.5 points in the third quarter. We anticipate a similar response from the authorities, "notes Peter Westaway, economist at Nomura.

The opposition conservative Japanese has already announced its support for extraordinary measures promised by the center-left government.A situation which should not, however, help improve the financial health of Japan, whose debt stood at 200% of GDP. The rating agency Standard and Poor's has also recently lowered the debt rating of Japan, considering that the country's budget deficit will remain high in coming years. But Moody's did its part Friday that the earthquake should not cause a subsequent breakdown of the score attributed to the Japanese debt.

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Didier Migaud, it's not just the TFR reform

"In Germany, they were clean before us." This Sunday, Didier Migaud first President of the Court of Auditors, relied on the report of the institution on fiscal convergence between France and Germany to remind the Government that the tax reform should focus on removing tax loopholes . It is a matter to be "addressed first," he told the Europe 1 radio mic.

Didier Migaud, the finding is indeed clear: "The attitude of the income tax is too narrow and too often questioned."It calls for review of certain practices, such as "devices in Overseas" and "tax loopholes on corporate taxes" that may "cause problems" or "tax loopholes on tax income, which can be considered to excessive levels and contribute to the tax on income from a certain point, becomes regressive. It raises issues of tax justice, "he says.

Do not focus on the TFR

The president of the ECA is concerned that the current debate, focusing on the TFR, not moving in the wrong direction cheapest personal loan rates. Of course, "reform may well be envisaged" because this tax "now has a rate higher than the original even though the return on capital is now lower than at its inception" .However, the ISF must "not necessarily be the main topic" of discussion on tax reform, led by the government. "When you look at the weight of the ISF in the French tax system: 4 billion euros in revenues, while the overall property tax is around 33 billion euros," he recalls.

Conversely, tax loopholes should be the central concern "given the explosion we have witnessed in recent years," he says. He added that "the consequences of the 2011 decisions in terms of reducing fiscal and social niches are low. The student can do better. "

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Wall Street plays prudence

The U.S. stock market opened slightly lower on Thursday. The Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively recede into effect from 0.41% to 1,315.52 points and 0.81% at 2766.34 points. For its part, the Dow Jones was down 0.40% at 12,191.20 points. Wednesday's session was mixed on Wall Street.

Egypt: Mubarak talks tough

Egypt returns to center stage. President Hosni Mubarak has indeed warned that the army would intervene in cases of "chaos, to take things in hand." This hardening of tone immediately led to renewed tension on oil markets: a barrel of light sweet crude for March delivery rose to 86.90 dollars while that of Brent North Sea with identical maturity exceeded $ 102.Moreover, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IEA) has further revised upwards its forecast on Thursday in world oil demand for 2010 and 2011 respectively to 87.8 and 89.3 million barrels per day (bpd ), mainly because of Chinese consumption, which set new records.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro lost ground against the dollar on Thursday, traders reaping some profits after a sharp rebound of the euro, but remained anchored over $ 1.36. Around 14:00 in Paris, the euro bought 1.3727 dollars against 1.36 dollars Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the United States, the weekly jobless claims rose less than expected at 383,000 against 419,000 recorded the previous week, and 410,000 enrollments anticipated by the consensus. It thus reached its lowest level since July 5, 2008.Pending the publication of wholesale inventories in December (around 16 hours), investors prefer to be cautious, however. Also note, the U.S. Treasury Department will unveil the budget figures in January to 20 hours.

NYSE Euronext to follow

The side of values, NYSE Euronext title should still be surrounded by this very Thursday at the New York Stock Exchange. NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse announced Wednesday that in "advanced talks" over a possible merger in which shareholders of the German company would be majority, with 59% to 60% of the shares.

The telecom equipment and computer Cisco has again alarmed investors by publishing Wednesday after market close a net profit of 1.52 billion for the second quarter of fiscal 2010-11, falling by 17.9% and slightly above expectations.

Also after market, the distributor of fresh produce Whole Foods Market has announced a profit of 88.7 million dollars (+ 61%). Turnover was up 14% to $ 3 billion and its gross margin rose slightly to 34.6% against 34.3%.

The world number one Hewlett-Packard (HP) introduced a new tablet computer called TouchPad, using the operating system of the late producer of Palm PDAs to compete with Apple iPad.

Also in the technology sector, according to the Wall Street Journal, Twitter is in negotiations with several suitors, including Facebook and Google."Leaders from both Facebook and Google, among other companies, had discussions somewhat inconsistent with those of Twitter in recent months to discuss the prospect of an acquisition of messaging service," said the newspaper, citing " People familiar with the matter. "

The site Eurosportbet TF1 is for sale

Qu'Eurosportbet not have results "ridiculous" in terms of customers, but "economically, it is not satisfactory," Nonce Paolini launched this Friday on LCI. So he said: "If there is a bid, we will look, we must be pragmatic."

It must be said that after the kick-off explosive opening of the gaming market online 8 June 2010, supported by World Cup football in July, the enthusiasm of internet users has quickly faded. Many of the side-operators, the market "was very disappointing," says the boss of the first TV channel in France, which states that this niche is not its core business.

"I was skeptical about the ability of the French market to have as many operators," he said on LCI.Indeed, a quarantine approvals (21 per poker, paris 12 for sports and seven for horse paris) were awarded to thirty operators. Three operators have the three accreditations: BetClick, PMU and SPS Betting France.

Finally, Nonce Paolini denounces paris online for a "regulation that is not favorable from a system that is very heavy, the heaviest in Europe fast cash."

The French game bet on the long term

The French game, which hitherto had a monopoly with the PMU, announced Wednesday a nice earnings growth: 180,000 punters in 2010, housing starts jumped 112% to EUR 91 million and its share market amounted to 15%.

But his boss is far from jumping for joy. "We must be patient, insists Christophe Blanchard-Dignac, which has imposed the term on the Paris sports online.His goal has not changed with its site ParionsWeb!, The French gaming market is a quarter of internet sports paris in 2012.

(With agencies)

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The police charged with batons, tear gas and water cannons. Photo credits: ANDREW Biraj / REUTERS