Irene would cost tens of billions

The bill may be steep Irene. The governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, has evaluated this Sunday on the NBC television network damage caused by Hurricane "billions of dollars, even tens of billions of dollars." According to an alternative estimate delivered by the consulting firm Kinetic analysis, the hardware cost of this storm is expected to rise between five and ten billion dollars, most likely around seven billion. Just to the North Carolina and South Carolina, two states already affected by the hurricane, the amount of losses expected to reach between 200 and 400 million.

Above all, this damage should be responsible in large measure to the State, businesses and individuals, when insurers should take on a lesser share of the burden, said Chuck Watson, one of the leaders of Kinetic Analysis told AFP."Most of the structural damage will be caused by the rising water because of rain and coastal flooding. Yet this type of damage is not covered by private insurance, "said he.

The same applies to losses caused by the cessation of activity in areas relevant to the coast, or the cost incurred by the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people payday loan lenders. Thus, New York, usually hectic, has been transformed this weekend into a ghost town, most shops have closed up shop and residents have been urged to stay home. But there is no damage reported, insurance should not pay a dime to compensate their members.

Insurers expected to be down

Insurance companies, however, should see their value fall Monday at the New York Stock Exchange.On Friday, insurers Allstate and Travelers had fallen to the lowest levels for two years, investors anticipate the costs incurred by the hurricane for those companies.

The amount of the invoice should still be less than initially estimated. Thus, Kinetic analysis was planned on Friday that a tornado could generate over 12 billion euros of damage if it hit New York at the height of its intensity. Finally, she was demoted to a mere tropical storm, with winds still 100 km / hour. These amounts are in any case of a different order of magnitude as the colossal damage of about $ 100 billion registered during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Wall Street should be on guard before the Fed

Wall Street holds its breath. In the wake of a sharp drop in session, and two hours of opening, the contracts are in equilibrium on the Dow Jones (+0.03% to 11,134 points), Nasdaq (0.09 % to 2113 points) and the S & P (+0.02% to 1157 points).

As in Europe and Asia this morning, the New York Stock Exchange on Friday waiting to learn more about the measures to be taken by the Fed to support the U.S. economy threatened by recession. Ben Bernanke, head of the institution, will speak Friday at 4:00 p.m. (French time) to his counterparts at the traditional central bankers in Jackson Hole Symposium, Wyoming. The Fed could launch a new program of quantitative easing, but many stakeholders are concerned that expectations may be disappointed.However, "if Ben Bernanke said that the need for further action is not obvious, it means that the economic outlook is less black than starting to think many investors, 'the economists broker Aurel BGC.

GDP in the menu

Before this appointment, investors will read the second estimate of GDP for the second quarter (14.30), the first being very disappointed. Growth could however be further revised down 0.2 point to 1.1% annual rate. The second estimate of the index of consumer sentiment in August is also the program cheap credit report.

As for currencies, the euro resumed slightly against the dollar to a few hours of the speech of Ben Bernanke. Around 11 am, the euro was worth 1.4440 dollars against 1.4378 dollars on Thursday in 21 hours. The wait also dominates the side of the oil markets.A barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery was trading at 110.25 dollars on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London, down 37 cents, while in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of "light sweet crude" (WTI) for the same maturity lost 35 cents to 84.95 dollars.

Values ​​of the day

On the corporate side, Tiffany, Madison Square Garden, Frontline and Royal Bank of Canada must publish.

HollyFrontier reported a dividend increase of 17% to 8.75 cents.MTS Systems also announced a 25% increase in its quarterly dividend.

Pandora Internet Radio, which made its IPO in June, on Thursday posted a net loss of $ 3.18 million in the second quarter of its fiscal year lag, and a turnover more than doubled, exceeding analysts' expectations.

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts has reported a quarterly profit of $ 8.8 million or 12 cents per share against 2.2 million a year earlier. Sales jumped 11% to $ 97.9 million.

Fruits and vegetables producers' anger

Was rotten to the producers of French fruit and vegetables. Multiply these actions to raise awareness of the state of their precarious economic situation. Vegetable growers now call their members to "strike of public payments," inviting them to no longer pay their payroll and other taxes. "I did not revive the disastrous situation of 2009, laments Angelique Delahaye, president of vegetables in France. Treasuries of our 40,000 businesses are very tense, 10% to 15% risk of extinction. We invite them to put themselves insolvent employer contributions to the MSA, deadlines and other bank charges. We must keep what little cash we have left to pay our employees and our local suppliers, "she says.

The gardeners feel they have lost 20% to 40% of their turnover since the crisis of cucumber, late MayAfter the questioning of vegetables by the German authorities in the bacterium E. coli, there has been a surplus of vegetables in the European market. With, as a consequence, a collapse in prices. These never reached the levels of last year payday loans. First victim, the tomato, which is officially in economic crisis last week.

Finally, the bad weather came to tarnish the situation. "The winter vegetable pot-au-feu or those consumed in béchamel as cauliflower are selling well right now over their cost," says Angelique Delahaye.

Targeted actions

Fruit growers are hardly better off. They have the advantage of cross-over for the holiday challenge on the road. "Sos Fruits, Europe guilty, absent policies …" be able to read on the tolls or stickers on banners hung on the bridges of the A7."We sell our fisheries currently 30 cents below our cost, deplores Regis Aubenas, producer of peaches in the Drome, the cause of this action by the FDSEA. We call policies to regulate the market so that the Spanish leading provider of fisheries in Europe, stop the dumping by selling eg 35 cents per kilo in Hamburg at Lidl. "

The player is used by default in the articles of figaro.fr. Maj7

"The deteriorating U.S. puts enormous pressure on Europe"

In the night from Friday to Saturday, S & P downgraded the rating of the United States, from "AAA" to "AA +". This historic announcement, which comes as the markets have closed a black week, plunged the financial world into the unknown. Munis Hassim, professor at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, explains why such degradation threatens the U.S. economy, the first world power, and identifies the situation to that of Japan in the 1990s.

Is the degradation of the notes of the United States plunges us into a new crisis?

The fact that the United States lose their triple-A means that they have a slightly higher probability of defaulting. But by switching to "AA +", this probability is very low. Moreover, experts and analysts do not believe at all a failure to pay the largest economy in the world. So there is no reason to panic.However, the multiple consequences which such degradation can they prove to be very disturbing.

For example?

The fact that S & P has dared to sacrifice the American note puts enormous pressure on other countries rated AAA, particularly in Europe as the UK or even France. This announcement will fuel fears of a contagion of degradation of notes, when the markets seemed to panic this week. In Italy and Spain (already degraded) in particular, tensions are rising, although they seem to be the new target markets. Moreover, the impact on the banks direct. They will have to review their capital allocation taking into account the appearance of more risky U.S. bonds they hold, as they impose the new international regulations, to strengthen the solvency of banks (Basel III).The recent bank stress tests, whose results were given there only three weeks, have already lost all credibility because they did not include either a restructuring of the Greek debt, or a deterioration note the United States.

Why such a lowering of note can threaten the global economy?

When the debt rating of long-term decline in the U.S., this means that more may not be refunded if the creditor is. However, the markets, the risk is remunerated by interest rates: if I am less sure of being repaid, so I request a higher rate. Thus, losing the "AAA", the U.S. interest rates at 5 years, 10, 20, 30, will mechanically increase.And if rates rise, it's a downward spiral of investment and consumption that will engage, which produces more unemployment, less tax revenue and public expenditure. This government deficits widen further, and sovereign debt. But during the past two weeks very turbulent markets, the U.S. long rates remained very low. There have never been so low, a sign of investor confidence.

There is still a little time, no one imagined the United States lose their AAA. How did they get there?

The problem the U.S. is that they have more flexibility, or a monetary point of view, or budget.On the one hand, monetary policy can not be more accommodating, having pumped billions and billions of dollars of liquidity into the markets and set the interest rate floor (they are between 0% and 0.5 %) to restore the U.S. economy weighed down by the subprime crisis that has capitulated Lehman Brothers, three years ago. On the other, public spending has been poorly controlled, while the U.S. tax burden is already high. Difficult in these conditions for fiscal consolidation.

It is like in Japan twenty years ago …

Exactly, you are right in the Japanese-style scenario. The United States could enter a situation of liquidity trap in which Japan was mired in the 1990s, but never really escape. Rates were zero and sluggish growth, while prices fell, leaving Japan trapped.United States, the U.S. central bank, the Fed is now more capable of supporting the U.S. economy, which has not really recovered from the crisis, according to the latest statistics. Growth for 2011 looks less than expected, despite the monetary support giant that has been deployed. It remains to be seen whether this will result in deflation (lower prices) or if inflation will return. The best case scenario would be the second, to prevent the United States is experiencing a "lost decade" in Japan.

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Air France: conflicts threaten three departures on holiday

While looming two weekends among the busiest in passenger of the year, Air France warned of now-already-and its passengers that they may have to be patient. If the airline has reached an agreement with the seven unions of Stewart and hostesses, thus avoiding a first strike scheduled for July 29 and August 1, she still faces other threats to social movements.

Two pilots notice

The first is the drivers. Tuesday, three minority unions – the SPAF, the Alter and R'Ways – have in fact filed a strike notice for the same July 29 to August 1. As the crew before them, the drivers are protesting against the offensive "anti-low cost" Air France plans to launch in its databases province. The new operation is expected to result, according to the drivers, an increase in the number of hours worked and trips a day.

For now, this movement somewhat worried the company, which does not anticipate any disruption in traffic this particular weekend. She feared much more the second notice, filed for the weekend of August 5 to 8, by the powerful pilots' union SNPL. Especially since the solutions to this conflict then escape it, since it is the government that is directly targeted. The pilots claim in fact the culmination of the reform of the Pension Fund of seafarers, which began three years ago. This morning, Labour Minister Xavier Bertrand told Europe 1 radio he was "hopeful" of finding a solution to the conflict. A mediator was appointed in early July to resolve this issue, which divides pilots and cabin crew.Raphael Hadas-Lebel, who assumes the function of mediator in addition to the Chairman of the Board of Retirement Guidance (NRC) "shall make its findings in the coming hours," said Xavier Bertrand this morning payday loans for bad credit.

The mechanics harden the tone

But at the same time, the management of Air France must also manage a third conflict, less publicized than those of pilots and aircrew, but highly impacting: some 4000 engineers responsible for maintenance of 260 units of the company practice of walkouts, for seven weeks.

If the company minimizes the facts explaining that stoppages of one or more hours that are 50 to 100 people, the impact on traffic is nonetheless real. According to Le Parisien, Aujourd'hui en France, long flights and medium-haul flights from Paris-Charles de Gaulle accuse each day delays of 15 to 20 minutes.Management also recognizes that it is obliged to postpone the launch of a two-plane in the evening to morning. Orly airport and Toulouse are also affected.

And before the stalled negotiations on wage demands, the engineers are threatening to get tough tonight at 22 hours. "Delays are possible and we do not exclude some cancellations," said Air France AFP. Alert bulletins on traffic conditions are published to the attention of travelers on the website of the company.

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Greece: The judge left with insufficient

In general, policy makers and global economic welcomed on Friday the new aid package of nearly 160 billion euros to save Greece. In France, François Baroin, the Minister of Economy, and Valerie Pécresse, his counterpart in the Budget, were the first to emphasize the benefits of the plan this morning on RTL and RMC, respectively. It's then Prime Minister, Francois Fillon, who returned on the details of the agreement, and most importantly, who has estimated the cost to France at 15 billion euros. All three said they were very satisfied with this plan. But French opposition, meanwhile, remains critical.

• François Hollande (PS) The socialist candidate for president in 2012 called Friday for "late and poor" the new plan of aid to Greece, even if deemed "necessary."At the micro de France Info, François Hollande spoke of "relief": "The markets for some time will be appeased, especially since it is the States that will make the main effort." However, it refrains from any "complacent", saying the plan is insufficient. He deplored, among other things that the tax credit was set aside.

• Martine Aubry (PS) Another presidential candidate, former secretary of the Socialist Party also welcomed an agreement has been reached. But the problem is "whole" in terms of "building the government of the euro," she said in a statement. Thus, "Europe has risen almost a disaster: the collapse of the single currency by lack of political action against speculation," says she. Before qualifying as "unacceptable" that "the rating agencies weigh so much on the choices that affect half a billion people."And reiterates its desire to create a tax on financial transactions.

• François Bayrou (Modem) – The plan "will not" slammed the president of the Democratic Movement. He sees in this agreement a lifeline intended to give "relief to the Greek government." To him, other crises will undermine the euro area. It regrets in particular that the measures adopted to reform the banking sector of Athens were not extended to other members of the euro area. Before you lament that "the rules and structures of defense systems of the European currency" has not been established.

• Arnaud Montebourg (PS) – The agreement "will likely relieve pressure and gain more time," said the PS deputy and president of the General Council of Saone-et-Loire. It considers, however, that this plan is not a solution as "effective and fair" that he should have been.Among other things, he accuses him of "load" European taxpayers by saving the banking sector.

• Marine Le Pen (FN) The leader of the Front National sees in the plan a "very bad news." "Another 109 billion euros of public money spent for nothing," she exclaims, lambasting a euro area "already bankrupt." And renew its desire for a "concerted output of the euro", since the plan "sign the stubbornness of the ruling caste to want to save at least one euro become synonymous with debt, unemployment, and insecurity", asserts she said.

• Jean-Michel Baylet (PRG) – "The measures taken to stop midstream." But esteem is what the president of the Radical Left Party (PRG) in a statement Friday morning. If he sees in "solidarity with Greece" a "necessity", Senator regrets measures "purely technical"."Above all, the vicious circle of speculation is not stopped," he supports, before advocating "a tax on financial transactions of sovereign debt across the European continent."

• Pierre Laurent (PCF) – a decision that "protects the interests of major creditors, banks and insurance companies, and speculators." The national secretary of the PCF has blasted the new plan to help. "The relaxation of systems refinancing and redemption of public debt will not illusion," he criticizes in a letter to AFP. "The risk of widespread collapse of the system is real.The role of the European Central Bank is not redirected, hedge funds are not taxed, the idea of ​​a tax credit is abandoned, "he recites.

• Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLR) to the President of the Republic and Member of Standing of Essonne, the "arsonists" played with "firefighter" for "attempting to deceive public opinion still." He sees in this agreement that a "large patch", which "is a little more into debt without the French helping the Greeks." For him, "the cause of the collapse of the economies of south of France" is by no means settled.

Internationally, the reactions are positive

• Philipp Rösler (German Minister of Economy) It expressed satisfaction on Friday, the summit of the eurozone. But he warns that secondary market purchases by the European Financial Stability (EFSF) should be strictly controlled.He recalled that it is one of the cornerstones of the agreement announced Thursday, to the extent that it must allow support of Greece while avoiding spread of the crisis to other economies in the euro area.

• Jan Rostowski (Polish Minister of Finance) He also welcomed a "step in the right direction." "For the first time in years the euro area began to anticipate events," he adds in a micro national radio. Now, even if the rating agencies formally declared insolvency of Greece, "the problems of Athens, Ireland and Portugal are sufficiently well resolved so that it does not spread to other countries," he said.

• Evangelos Venizelos (Greek Minister of Finance) At a press conference Friday morning, the Minister welcomed an agreement that in his view a "great relief".For him, the country's banking system is so "guaranteed and insured." In addition, Evangelos Venizelos welcomed the emergence of a "European meeting" in his view, the decisions of the euro area provided a "clear and precise solution" against "asymmetric warfare [...] between the European Union and the markets. "

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Facebook declined in North America

Endtime, accident or simple miscalculation? The latest results are already hearing from Facebook debate. Produced by the research department of the information website Inside Facebook – Facebook is independent of the company itself – these statistics indicate that the most famous social networks would decline among Internet users in North America. Facebook has lost 6 million users in the United States between April and May, and 1.52 million in Canada. The community site will now respectively 149.4 and 16.6 million active members.

Based on his own analysis tool, Inside Facebook has also found a small erosion of over 100,000 active users, markets UK, Norwegian and Russian. Box of 687 million active members worldwide, Facebook has however continued to rise over the period.Drawn by Brazil, Mexico and India, the social network has expanded by nearly 12 million Internet users.

Other alerts

Inside Facebook remains cautious about the meaning of these figures. "We're going supervision is closely to see what trends emerge over the long term, note the service. Bugs in the Facebook advertising tool and we get this information, seasonal changes, such as for studies, and other factors can influence short-term figures on a month and hide what is really happening. "

It is also not the first time that analysts observed a drop in speed at Facebook in the U.S.. Last March, the Institute of audience measurement Comscore noted a slowdown in the growth of Facebook in the United States. In April, Nielsen had warned about a decline in time spent by users on Facebook.Farther still, Nielsen had been a decline of 5% of Facebook users in the United Kingdom in early 2008! Explored by 8.5 million UK Internet users then, the social network now boasts over 29 million.

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Market movements in the outhouse

The lines are moving among specialists support the addiction. Fifteen months after its IPO, the third French player in specialist nursing homes and care facilities on, saw the arrival of a new shareholder in its capital. A shareholder not quite unknown in the health sector, far from it, because it is the family holding Ruggieri Batipart already shares amounting to 23.8% of Korian the second major player side sector.

In a statement, said Batipart have acquired from the BC Partners Funds 9.5% stake in Medica. For this, the holding company has spent about 72.5 million. BC Partners, who wanted to disengage from Medica via IPO in February 2010, also sold 18.6% of the group Medica Covéa (mutual insurance: MAAF, MMA, GMF, etc.)..Following the transaction, BC Partners, which had already reduced its stake in March by selling 14.6% stake, holds longer qu'environde 3% of specialist care dependency.

An opportunity to 'rare'

For this operation, Batipart take this particular situation of the round table Medica. "It is rare to have such a big business opportunity in health," says Nicolas Ruggieri, associate director of Batipart. This entry to the capital allows us to strengthen the sector, the second major strategic Batipart, with real estate. " Among the other listed companies, a withdrawal of investors with holdings as large as that of BC Patners (30.5% at the time of the introduction) is indeed unusual.Since health is seen to hold for the long-term investments are generally in the same same horizon.

Investors semblainet share this enthusiasm Thursday in the Paris Bourse, clinching the title Medica 3% in early trade, to 15.3 euros. "This is clearly a long-term investment from Batipart, says Nicolas Ruggieri." Remains to be seen what position to adopt the new entrant later and wants to eventually take over his new participation. "We do not exclude us strengthen, says Nicolas Ruggieri, but we will not do so significantly, if at night floating Medica, who at nearly 55%, is one of the major advantages of this investment" . Today, the largest shareholder Medica is the life insurance company Prédica, with 11.3% of the round.

Side Medica, little reaction on the operation."The arrival of a new shareholder, a priori known for its investment over time, can only be a good thing," confined to explain Bailet Jacques, CEO of Medica. The group should issue a statement in the morning.

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DSK's arrest revives the debt crisis in Europe

While the Director General of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, was charged with attempted rape and arrested in the U.S. yesterday as investors worried about the turn that will take the debt crisis in the euro area, especially in Greece. The indictment of Dominique Strauss-Kahn ally of Prime Minister of Greece George Papandreou, arrived in effect at the worst time for Athens. The IMF chief would have had to go in Berlin on Sunday and meet Angela Merkel to discuss a possible new aid to Greece, who won the spring of 2010 using a 110 billion euros, 30 billion from the IMF.This meeting was to take place on the eve of a meeting of the Eurogroup, the Monday night and Tuesday in Brussels, with the main discussions at the agenda of the financial problems that resurface Greece for several days and plaguing the markets, concerned about the risks of bankruptcy of Greece, and the possible contagion to other countries of the euro area.

The IMF will be well represented at the meeting of the Eurogroup, the deputy general manager of operations, Nemat Shafik, who was missionnée to attend. But analysts say the IMF's support to Greece is not as steadfast as Dominique Strauss-Kahn took the reins of the institution.Thus, Eswar Prasad, an analyst at the Brookings Institution told the antenna Bloomberg: "The assumption was that as Dominique Strauss-Kahn remained at the head of the IMF, the institution has not dropped in Europe and continue to support the continent. But the departure of Dominique Strauss-Kahn casts doubt on the intentions of the IMF. "

The IMF board will meet on Monday

Immediate consequence of these doubts, the euro fell to 1.4056 dollars in Tokyo Monday morning, 1.4108 against the dollar in New York Friday night. Against the yen, the European currency eased to 113.61 yen against 113.99 yen.However, shortly after after the opening of financial centers in Europe, the single currency has regained some color, displayed a very slight increase, to 1.4131 dollar.

For its part, the IMF has tried to be reassuring, saying yesterday that he remained "fully functional and operational," after stating that John Lipsky, IMF number two, will the Interim Director General of the institution the time required. The institution must meet its board of directors on Monday to decide the fate of its president at its head.Originally scheduled yesterday the appointment was postponed, the council waiting for new developments to make its decision in this situation that observers deemed "not simple".

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Slight decrease in advertising on TF1

After the rally of 2010, TF1 faces a more difficult first quarter of 2011. During this period, the private audiovisual group saw its turnover increase by 2.9% to 614.4 million euros. However, the advertising revenue of the antenna TF1 down 2.6% to 353.3 million euros, due in March and April in the semi-shade. However, this figure suffers from the comparison with the strong rebound in early 2010. Good news, the group's net profit jumped 47.9% to 48.2 million.

These results come at a time when TF1 faces another challenge: how to perk up its newscast of 20 hours, while there is the challenge of the presidential important moment in the life of a great chain. The launch on Thursday night, a political meeting monthly at 20 h 15 is the forerunner with this shortening of the slice info most ritualized television.Because as the campaign intensifies, "Word direct", hosted by Laurence Ferrari and François Bachy, head of policy TF1, will be more recurrent. Two years ago, France 2 was the precursor with a newspaper reduced to 25 minutes.

And indeed, for a little over a year, the differences between the two JT in terms of audience share is shrinking. In July 2010, it is also taken much for France 2 to outweigh the first private channel. Since the incidents are increasing. TF1 naturally continues its leadership, but now falls steadily below the four-point gap with France 2.For now, however, the average "20 hours" by Laurence Ferrari -27.6% audience share for the month of April, according to Médiamétrie-still higher than the channel TF1, which itself falls to 23.4%.

Financial strength

But the differential is less important than that between the "20 hours" of France 2, which shows an average 22% audience share, when the television channel France 2 as a whole does not exceed the 15% share hearing direct payday lenders.

Nevertheless, the power of advertising and financial TF1 still stands. Indeed, if the hearings "20 hours" are crumbling, the advertising market share in the chain has never been as strong as it reached nearly 55%."The point of no return will happen when advertisers will not accept pay for a hearing less than half of the advertising market share," said one observer.

But for Sebastien Danet, president of media agency ZenithOptimedia France (Publicis Group), "there is no disaster or industrial accident. TF1 remains commercially agile and can adapt its rates at the hearings. Bids are adjusted in real time. Moreover, given its power, remains an important interlocutor TF1 carried by the effectiveness of the media. "In fact, the authority has noted the erosion of the television news, since the prices of monitors have dropped by about 7 % on this time slot. Dominique Delport, the boss of Havas Media France, not far from thinking of himself: "TF1 rates in accordance with its audience. Moreover, few chains in Europe can offer advertisers an audience with 25% of a country.In addition, France Televisions had no screen after 20 hours, the performance of its JT are less strategic. "

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