Debt: France deserves what score she?

The three major rating agencies have Anglo-Saxon reassured after the deterioration of the U.S. debt rating by Standard & Poor's: France, with a AAA, will not follow the same path. At least in the coming months. An agency is an exception, the Chinese Dagong. It gives the country an AA-rating, while preventing it could soon lower it. Large agencies and small news, who's right?

Dagong is not severe with France. "She has a much more negative than Western agencies of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, observes in a note to Patrick Artus, head of economic research at Natixis.Regarding the situation of public finances and potential growth, we can only give reason for Dagong against three major rating agencies. "

But the financial rating of a state that reflects the risk that it does not pay-or-bad debt, is not based solely on purely accounting. Moreover, France does not deserve an AA if only the statistics alone were taken into account by Standard & Poor's, according to calculations of Natixis.

Political risks

"The gap between Dagong and the three major agencies and explained in the apprehension of risk policy and governance," notes Juan Carlos Rodado, economist at Natixis, and author of a study on the methodology of rating agencies. An example: Venezuela has severely noted Standard & Poor's (BB-) by Dagong (BB +), because the former has less confidence in the Chavez government.Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's, unlike Dagong, also place a note on the weight of history. If a country has poorly paid its creditors in the past, such as Russia in 1998, the final verdict will be more severe. This factor discriminates against developing countries, and benefits the West.

At the heart of the statistical arguments, the Chinese agency promotes stronger economic growth and foreign exchange reserves, that is to say the cash generated by an entire economy thanks to exports. This way of clearly favors the emerging countries, major exporters (including China) and catching up economically.

The agency Dagong appears too severe, however, in general, said Jean-Christophe Caffet, an economist in charge of France, Natixis also: "She has placed virtually no major country in the AAA category, and those that are found are the debt markets rather narrow in which we can not really invest, such as Norway, Denmark, Luxembourg and New Zealand. "

Question of Independence

Also emit some doubts about the credibility of the agency Dagong. It has only twenty analysts to rate 67 countries, against 70 to 80 126 Standard & Poor's. In addition, its relationship with the Beijing government cast doubt on some Chinese economists, reports Le Monde. Finally, the same method as slides Juan Carlos Rodado, is not innocent: "When Dagong underestimated so the political risk, we understand the underlying interest."Namely encourage emerging countries close to China.

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Obama gives assurance on Wall Street

The speech Barack Obama optimistic on economic prospects of the country begins to lighten the mood in the U.S. markets. The stock market indicators began to return gradually in the green, particularly reassured by the employment figures. At 18:50 Paris time, the Dow rose 0.89% to 11,485 points and the S & P gained 0.60% to 1207 points, the Nasdaq remains hesitant, remaining balance (0.02%) to 2256 points.

U.S. markets also appreciate the market rumors to the effect that the European Central Bank is ready to support the Italian and Spanish bonds, if these countries to undergo structural reforms.

The employment figures dictate trend

The announcement of a significant improvement in job creation last month seems to calm the situation on Wall Street Friday after a collapse in U.S. up over 4% yesterday.In recent weeks, disappointing publications on the state of the U.S. economy had, in fact, chained, challenging the idea of ​​resumption of the world's largest economy. This publication confirms the figures released Wednesday by ADP, reports of more new jobs than expected for the month of July.

At 21 hours the numbers of U.S. consumer credit for the month of June will end this week full of macroeconomic data.

Oil and euro pressure

Oil prices climbed hesitantly at the opening Friday in New York, despite the employment figures better than expected, as the market wondered if it would be sufficient to support the demand for crude in a very fragile economic environment .On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 87.04 dollars, up 41 cents from the previous day.

This concern also weighs on the currency front, the euro was trying to rebound against the dollar but remained under pressure from macroeconomic concerns.To 15 hours in Paris, the European currency was worth 1.4224 dollars against 1.4106 dollars on Thursday night, after falling to 1.4055 dollars in early Asian trade, its lowest for three and a half weeks instant payday loan.

AIG, GM and Procter & Gamble publish their accounts

On the corporate side, the semi-annual publications still dominate the news on Friday.

Thursday evening after market, the insurer AIG (-0.23% to 26.34 dollars) announced a return to the green of its accounts in the second quarter, with net earnings of $ 1.84 billion over the period, against a loss of $ 2.7 billion a year earlier. Per share, net income totaled $ 1 ($ 0.69 after tax, against $ 0.92 expected by analysts).

At the same time, and its first quarterly since its IPO on May 19, LinkedIn (-2.27% to 93.36 dollars) was positively surprised markets by announcing a turnover more than doubled the second quarter to 121 million dollars (120 euros) and net profit (4.5 million), where analysts expected a loss.

GM Motors (1.27% to 26.32 dolars) Thursday reported quarterly results exceeded expectations, with a near doubling of profits over the period.

Procter & Gamble (1.78% to 60.64 dollars) released before market on Friday for the fourth quarter of fiscal offset, net income up 15% to $ 2.51 billion.Of 2010-2011, so it shows a net profit of 11.79 Annual Statement billion, down 7% from the previous year.

Viacom (3.55% to 53.17 dollars), the parent company of MTV and Comedy Central, has reported a rise than expected in earnings thanks to strong revenue growth in advertising Cable and license agreements with websites. Its quarterly results (Q3) increased to $ 574 million against 432 million

Bank of America (1.70% to 8.98 dollars) is highly exposed to the most fragile countries in the euro zone, according to a document from the bank. The group said exposure to the tune of $ 16.7 billion (11.8 billion euros) in total to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain in June 30Management has indicated in a document submitted to the regulatory authorities that its losses could reach up to legal $ 2.3 billion in addition to the provisions already passed for this purpose.

The display stands up well with JCDecaux Asia

No doubt, the economic model of JCDecaux continues to prove itself. In the first half, sales of the French group, world leader in outdoor advertising, organic growth (excluding acquisitions and currency effects) of 5.8% to 1.17 billion euros, higher than the communication sector, which is between 3 and 4%.

The growth remains strong with a good spread of activities. The dynamism of the Asia-Pacific, representing 19% of sales and grew by almost 20%, but the rest of the world (Middle East and Latin America in particular) helped offset JCDecaux weak activity in France (+0.6%). This is still weighing a quarter of turnover.Similarly, Southern Europe (Portugal, Spain and Italy) continues to suffer.

Among the major activities of JCDecaux, the decline in activity in the display (-3.7% as reported) is offset by the growth of income in airports and public transportation (subway, bus), which jumped nearly 17% over the first six months of the year. A segment of the market in which JCDecaux has invested heavily in recent years.

Stability in third quarter

In total, the group chaired by Jean-Charles Decaux can boast flashing in green. The increase in sales has led to a mechanical increase in the margin, but less than that expected by analysts. Net income group share resort, it, up 46.3% to 95 million euros. The slowdown, however, marked between the first and second quarter.Segment of street furniture (almost half of the activity), growth was almost zero from April to June, a jump of activity against 5% in the first three months of the year. This cons-performance due to the continuing difficulties in Europe and the loss of several concessions to large shopping centers in the United States.

The group gives no margin target. He anticipates only "organic growth of its sales in line with the second quarter. "In other words, we must continue to do with the difficulties in Europe. "Knowing that the bases of comparison are not favorable," argues Jean-Charles Decaux. Organic growth was over 11% in the second quarter of 2010.

"Our media is the one most resistant to the crisis," says the boss.JCDecaux expects the continued urbanization of the planet and the rise of digital (11% of the activity in transport) to continue to grow. Not to mention possible acquisitions.

Google sued in the Commercial Court in Paris

The blows rained down from all sides on Google. Friday, the U.S. competition has announced the opening of an investigation into the Internet group. Today was the turn of French society 1PlusV attack. Editor of topics such as search engines ejustice.fr, Google it assigns to the court of commerce of Paris to seek redress for damages caused by anticompetitive practices of the American giant. 1PlusV assesses his damages at 290 million euros, corresponding to the lost revenue (74 million) and potential revenue lost since the establishment of its business in 2007. The company also claims the publication of the disputed practices on the home page of the famous search engine.

"Unfair Competition"

This assignment in Paris in addition to two cases brought against Google by 1PlusV in Brussels.The first complaint, filed in February 2010, led the European Commission to investigate Google in November 2010. A few months later, in February 2011, filed a complaint 1PlusV further to extend the complaint to all of its search engines. It accuses two things at Google. First, the search engine "rigged" results in both favoring its own thematic search engines (called "vertical"), as in the book, video, maps, and feeding its index data Public collected without the consent of the site publishers guaranteed high risk personal loans. On the other hand, Google would have prevented 1PlusV to monetize their sites with advertising by conditioning access to its advertising to the use of its search technology (tying).

"We launched search engine in 2007, but they could not develop because of discriminatory practices of Google.Our company was nipped in the bud, "said Bruno Guillard, founder of 1PlusV. He now believes it has evidence, found by a bailiff, on practices that dereferencing Google was guilty. "There is unfair competition to the extent that Google gives the impression that their engine is more powerful than us. This assignment, which is intended to redress, the complaint does not stop Europe, covering an injunction to stop these practices, says Bruno Guillard. We believe that Google has answers to give. "

The Commercial Court of Paris could take from 16 to 24 months to rule on this complaint. Brussels, meanwhile, is in the process of peeling the replies to questionnaires sent to various European actors in the Web in early January as part of its investigation.While the debate over Net neutrality has been raging, it could well be extended to search neutrality.

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New finance minister for Greece

The name was the most anticipated of the new finance minister. This will be the former Defence Minister Evangelos Venizelos, who is also Vice-Premier, announced Friday a spokesman of the Greek government.

The new finance minister succeeds George Papaconstantinou, in office since the victory of the Greek socialist party (PASOK) in the legislative elections of October 2009. Principal architect of the austerity suffered by Greece to cover its deficits, George Papaconstantinou was in the front line of the anger expressed in the street by the Greek people. Finance aside, it remains in the government team in charge of the Environment.

Curb the social crisis and negotiate with creditors

Before arriving in the team Papandreou, Evangelos Venizelos, 54, had held many ministerial posts in previous socialist governments in the mid-1990s, including the voice of the government, Minister of Justice and Minister Development. He will now have the task of curbing the financial and social crisis in Greece and negotiate with creditors.

In Defense Venizelos is replaced by a close associate of Prime Minister Georges Papandreou, Panos Beglitis.Another relative, Stavros Lambrinidis, was appointed Foreign Affairs.

Faced with conflicting pressures of creditors of the country and the street, and the refusal of the main opposition party the right to form a national unity government, the prime minister announced Wednesday he would proceed to reshuffle and he would ask in the wake of confidence in parliament. By sacrificing his finance minister, George Papandreou shade his last card. If the new team fails to resolve the crisis, keeping its own head of government will be compromised.The question is whether this game of musical chairs will be enough to calm the anger of the street.

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Raffarin for a second day of solidarity

The French will they work an extra day to finance the addiction? This idea, stated in recent months by several groups working on the financing of dependence, was taken on Europe 1 this Saturday by former Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the instigator of the first day of solidarity. It would, he said "the easiest solution" to partially fund the addiction. A more appropriate measure to implement that "our organization's work" has "a lot of RTT," he said, tackles the 35-hour shift introduced by Martine Aubry.

As stated in former prime minister, would finance additional working day as part of the costs of an aging population.For if the day of solidarity relates each year about 2 billion to state coffers, the expenditures related to dependence in turn have posed 24 billion on public accounts for 2010 alone, according A recent review of the Economic, Environmental and Social Committee (EESC). The increase of approximately 1% per year in the number of elderly dependents by 2040 should in turn lead to a peak of public expenditure between 2025 and 2050, around 30 billion euros.

The day of solidarity potentially unconstitutional

This idea to make employees work an extra day is not new. A Senate report released in February, and the conclusions of the working group led by Bertrand Fragonard, made public last May, including this track evoked to support the aging population.The recent opinion of the EESC, which should be released on June 15, however has rejected this option, preferring among others, as mentioned by the report Rosso Debord, the hypothesis of increased taxation on inheritances and an increase in CSG retirees. For its part, the state also plans to encourage older people to tap into their life to convert into an annuity.

Reformed in 2008 so that employees can fulfill their solidarity day anytime during the year, not only on Whit Monday, the day has indeed challenged. The Constitutional Council will decide within three months to determine if this n'écorne not the constitutional principle of equality before tax.Indeed, only employees would pay, "and not professionals and retirees," says Mr. Bertrand Salquain, who entered the Elders of the question. The "father" of the measure, Jean-Pierre Raffarin said on Saturday that "it is not true that only the employees contribute, since we also taxed a portion of the capital."

Originally a French perfume by Michael Jackson

Jackson Tribute to man easy to get unsecured personal loans.

Why the drop in oil is reflected at the pump hurt

As with every drop of crude on international prices, oil is accused of failing to pass the motion on the price at the pump. After soaring oil in April, hoping motorists in early May, quickly see the effect of receding oil prices on the invoice to the service station. He had to wait.

From May 2 to 13, the price per barrel fell from 125.85 dollars to 114.65 dollars in London. However, prices of MS 95 have fallen by an average of … zero cents, while diesel fell 3 to 4 cents in the period. Those are the findings of a study by the Directorate General for Competition, Consumption and Fraud published Monday.

Threats Bercy

This report, the Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde, the accuser is: he believes that dealers could have decreased the price of 6 cents per liter of SP95 and that 4 cents of diesel between April 2 and May 15 Given this apparent unwillingness, Bercy threat sector to impose lower prices.

In reality, it took until May 20 to observe the first tangible effects of the sharp fall in international prices of black gold. It has thus been two full weeks or 10 days, so that the prices displayed in service station finally decrease to the SP 95, 3.4 cents, to 1.515 euros per liter on average.

Operators have taken advantage of the ten days of falling oil prices to restore gross margins by not amending hardly prices at the pump. Immediate expense of consumers.According to calculations Figaro.fr this margin, which can amortize the costs of transportation and distribution, has in fact increased between the first and third week of May, the order of 2 5-3 cents per liter of MS 95.

Cushion the impact

If retailers wanted to restore their margins, it is because they were compressed during the surge in oil prices during the month of April and early May. "When prices at the pump exceed 1.50 euros per liter, operators tend to cushion the impact on the customer taking on them," says Jean-Louis Schilansky, president of the French Union of Petroleum Industries ( UFIP). So when crude prices went back down, "there was little effect of margin recovery," he admits.

The authors of the study reached the same conclusion, noting that before the falling price of a barrel in early May, traders will puncturing an unusually low margin per liter of MS 95. Namely between 8.3 cents and 2.1 for the majors cents for large surfaces. Still, oil has long been suspected to better pass on increases in the fuel decreases. As in this report INSEE dating from 2002, clearly titled: "The fuel price is more sensitive to higher rather than lower crude oil."

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The Tokyo Stock Exchange remains in the red

The Tokyo Stock Exchange is in free fall since last Thursday. In nearly four sessions, the Nikkei 225 has lost more than 3%, while trying to get closer to 10,000 points again he had reached a little over a week earlier. On Tuesday, the Japanese stock index was down 0.12% at 9546.75 points, after the downturn on Wall Street Monday night.

TEPCO continues to plunge

In the absence of macroeconomic indicators or outcomes of heavy odds, the Nikkei does not take advantage of the decline of the yen against the dollar, the greenback rising 0.41% to 81.18 yen. The uncertainties surrounding the euro area after the arrest of the International Monetary Fund boss Dominique Strauss-Kahn, as always worry investors.

On the corporate side, the operator of the nuclear power plant, Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) collapses from 11.42% to 372 yen, its lowest in a month and a half.According to Standard & Poor's on Friday, the U.S. rating agency Moody's also downgraded one notch from TEPCO (Baa2). This rating qualifies the issuers considered of average quality but still able to meet their deadlines.

Investors replay the energy sector in Shanghai

In China, financial markets operate in an uncoordinated manner. If the Hang Seng in Hong Kong following the downward trend in Tokyo, falling from 0.11% to 22,935.80 points, the ISC Shanghai climbed from 1.07% to 3133.53 points supported by the energy sector is highly prized by the investors who profit from the decline of oil. China Shenhua Energy climbed 3.47% and to 28.6 yuan.

Oil prices are actually trending down Tuesday in electronic trading in Asia on demand concerns continued to affect the market, dealers said.In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for June delivery declined 27 cents to 97.10 dollars. That of Brent North Sea also June delivery yielded 30 cents to 110.54 dollars.

Mixed trend in other Asian financial centers

On other Asian financial centers, the trend is mixed. The Taiwan TAIEX edges up 0.18% to 8927.40 points, the S & P / ASX 200 gained 0.59% in Sydney to 4677.60 points and the KRX 100 of Seoul is stable at 4464.54 points. In contrast, the BSE Sensex 30 Bombay declined from 0.14% to 18,320.20 points and the FTSE Straits Times is 0.86% at 3136.48 points.

Slight decrease in advertising on TF1

After the rally of 2010, TF1 faces a more difficult first quarter of 2011. During this period, the private audiovisual group saw its turnover increase by 2.9% to 614.4 million euros. However, the advertising revenue of the antenna TF1 down 2.6% to 353.3 million euros, due in March and April in the semi-shade. However, this figure suffers from the comparison with the strong rebound in early 2010. Good news, the group's net profit jumped 47.9% to 48.2 million.

These results come at a time when TF1 faces another challenge: how to perk up its newscast of 20 hours, while there is the challenge of the presidential important moment in the life of a great chain. The launch on Thursday night, a political meeting monthly at 20 h 15 is the forerunner with this shortening of the slice info most ritualized television.Because as the campaign intensifies, "Word direct", hosted by Laurence Ferrari and François Bachy, head of policy TF1, will be more recurrent. Two years ago, France 2 was the precursor with a newspaper reduced to 25 minutes.

And indeed, for a little over a year, the differences between the two JT in terms of audience share is shrinking. In July 2010, it is also taken much for France 2 to outweigh the first private channel. Since the incidents are increasing. TF1 naturally continues its leadership, but now falls steadily below the four-point gap with France 2.For now, however, the average "20 hours" by Laurence Ferrari -27.6% audience share for the month of April, according to Médiamétrie-still higher than the channel TF1, which itself falls to 23.4%.

Financial strength

But the differential is less important than that between the "20 hours" of France 2, which shows an average 22% audience share, when the television channel France 2 as a whole does not exceed the 15% share hearing direct payday lenders.

Nevertheless, the power of advertising and financial TF1 still stands. Indeed, if the hearings "20 hours" are crumbling, the advertising market share in the chain has never been as strong as it reached nearly 55%."The point of no return will happen when advertisers will not accept pay for a hearing less than half of the advertising market share," said one observer.

But for Sebastien Danet, president of media agency ZenithOptimedia France (Publicis Group), "there is no disaster or industrial accident. TF1 remains commercially agile and can adapt its rates at the hearings. Bids are adjusted in real time. Moreover, given its power, remains an important interlocutor TF1 carried by the effectiveness of the media. "In fact, the authority has noted the erosion of the television news, since the prices of monitors have dropped by about 7 % on this time slot. Dominique Delport, the boss of Havas Media France, not far from thinking of himself: "TF1 rates in accordance with its audience. Moreover, few chains in Europe can offer advertisers an audience with 25% of a country.In addition, France Televisions had no screen after 20 hours, the performance of its JT are less strategic. "

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