Question of economic efficiency then. One can only be struck by the complete lack of fiscal strategy of the Finance Bill 2012, currently under discussion in Parliament. In the eyes of officials of Bercy, the only way to increase tax revenues is to remove the niches or benefits made in the tax calculation.More than half of the 11 billion euros in additional savings are announced in late August and the removal of some old tax benefits. Now that the idea has been fueled largely with public opinion than the 104 billion euros in lost revenue for state coffers that are the fiscal and social niches, half are "very effective" or "inefficient", this solution is actually the easiest to implement. But it can serve as long-term program. As niches, whose real term is "tax expenditure", are as fundamental to encourage private investors to replace the public investor.No niches, no investment in France, which already sorely lacking.

Reform the income tax

The tax reform in 2012 will revolve around three major issues: how to bring balance between taxation of wealth and income? How to get to his income tax progressivity? What future for VAT?

To these questions, the UMP and the PS will provide different answers, of course. But the rules are the same for all. France can no longer raise taxes. The tax ratio-mandatory, ie the tax burden, amounted to 44.5% of GDP, close to its historical levels (44.9% in 1999). But conversely, the disastrous situation of public finances prevents them down.The "big bang" will be announced fiscal totally bounded in the universe: it will be a rebalancing in depth, but revenue constant.

Some lines of force emerge. The income tax in its present form, is on trial. Two transformations are emerging: reconsider its progressivity, that is to say goodbye slices. Or merge it with the CSG, an idea that has the favor of PS and a large part of the UMP. This merger should not be mistaken, broaden the tax base, will make the income tax fairer, but will also be more painful for the average incomes.

Similarly, it will not escape a VAT reform. Since 2008, 15 European countries have found, for fiscal consolidation, so much so that the rate of 19.6% French is now among the lowest in the euro area, 1 point lower than the average.Especially down at the other, the government chose to lower it for some sectors (food, building …).

Finally, there is the balance between taxation of income and wealth. The most sensitive issue. Recently, in Le Figaro, the budget minister Valérie Pécresse explained: "By raising taxes on savings, we compare the taxation of wealth from that of labor income." The road has only begun. One can imagine what awaits holders of wealth in the coming years …

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Tens of thousands of demonstrators, inspired by the "outrage" of Wall Street and Spain, marched on Saturday in Rome, the city had been cordoned off by police. "One solution, the Revolution!", "We are not property in the hands of bankers," could be read on the signs of the protesters.

In Rome, two cars were torched. Photo credits: ALBERTO PIZZOLI / AFP

In 2010, the area was paralyzed by a social movement in response to the announcement of the closure of the Flanders refinery, operated by Total in Dunkirk freecreditscore. At the time, the conflict had disrupted fuel distribution in France.

At Berre, the sale of the refinery achieved no result, LyondellBasell prefer to stop the costs: it has indeed lost 400 million euros since its acquisition in 2008 and is expected to be € 120 million deficit in 2012 . "It's the only number that management has given us. They are unable to tell us what results come out the whole site with or without the refinery while a McKinsey study estimated that closing the refinery would deprive downstream from the site of 80 million margin of integration " , Patrick gets upset Sciurca.

While a government source announced the "initiatives" to support Franco-German Greece to face serious funding problems of its debt, the Elysee Palace denied."There will be no Franco-German initiative today," said the president requested by the AFP, saying also that no decision had been made about a possible speaking of Nicolas Sarkozy to Following his meeting scheduled at 17 am (Paris time) with the President of the European Union Herman Van Rompuy.

The Elysee was also opposed to a very firm denied rumors that a scenario out of Greece to the euro would be discussed at the Elysee. We emphasized above all the character "drama" of this to the Greeks themselves, but also for the euro area.

"To ensure compliance with the commitments of the July 21"

"This is not a desirable solution, we do nothing to make it desirable," confided a senior official Monday night Elysian following folder every minute."We try to be consistent: we are about to present to Parliament the rescue plan that was decided on 21 July in Brussels. We do not prepare in the wings is another scenario that would offer the exact opposite, "he continues.

The state still remains fragile in which finances are Greek, "We try to convince them to do everything to achieve compliance with the commitments of July 21," says this source. Tuesday evening, the Head of State may wish to print this message in a clear and solemn.

The Perfect Storm market, this change of note, even anticipated, will be a blow to those banks seeking to reassure investors about their ability to refinance. The climate is harmful: the action of Societe Generale, the most attacked by the markets, has lost 56% since January 1, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and 37%, 43%. The European banking index at the same time dropped by 35%.

Troika in Athens

The tension is escalated Friday when the very orthodox chief economist at the European Central Bank (ECB), the German Jürgen Stark, resigned to show his disagreement with the assistance provided by the Mint of the fragile the euro area, including Italy and Spain, as a redemption of their bonds on the market.To make matters worse, banks are reluctant to lend to each other. Deposits from day to day banking in the euro area with the European Central Bank (ECB) are at record levels.

This week, representatives of the troika (EU, IMF and ECB), to oversee the accounts of Greece, it will return. They had left unexpectedly in early September, saying that Athens had not fulfilled its promises in terms of privatization and economic reforms. The Greek government has given additional pledges Sunday and EU Commissioner Olli Rehn said he was confident in the prospect of an agreement by the end of the month. Time is short indeed: Greece is in dire need of approval from the troika to receive a new tranche of EUR 8 billion taken from the first aid plan in 2010. A refusal would mean the default.Banks that have lent money, would suffer, while heavy losses.

In this context, the debate rages about whether European banks, which hold their balance sheets in packages of loans to countries in fragile states in the euro area are adequately capitalized.

August 27, Christine Lagarde, the executive director of the IMF, had felt it was "urgent" that the European financial institutions reinforce with new capital. Saturday, it reduced his remarks, adding that the figure of 200 billion euro recapitalization needs of European banks was only a preliminary estimate "under discussion" …

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In July, a survey conducted by the MEDEF Ile de France, reported a cautious business leaders in investment and hiring in the coming months. They showed a greater reluctance at the beginning of the year. Recent events have not changed their perception. "Business leaders know that the current financial difficulties do not have the same basis as in 2008. They are not fooled. A company is not only its market value cash till payday advance. Its value, it is men and what it produces. French banks are solid. Order books are good. The agenda is full of my business, "says Marie-Christine OGHLY, president of MEDEF Ile-de-France.

Emerging growth opportunities in

"What strikes me is the gap between the health of businesses and the macro-economy.I am reasonably optimistic. Large companies and other clients maintain their investments, "says Christian also Poyau, president of the Micropole services company that has acquired a Chinese company in May. "I just take stock of our activities in China that are developing as planned. The company fundamentals are good. We should not only focus on the U.S. economy. The world has changed. China, Brazil grow. I do not believe in a deep recession in the United States. I am confident because companies have growth opportunities in the world. " This observation is also that of Christophe de Margerie, Total CEO: "The growth in emerging markets is not to our detriment. It helps a lot when things go less well, "said the boss in this major group, listed on CAC 40, who attended a session on the theme" Réespérer. "A word that bosses are determined to make them.

Dagong is not severe with France. "She has a much more negative than Western agencies of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, observes in a note to Patrick Artus, head of economic research at Natixis.Regarding the situation of public finances and potential growth, we can only give reason for Dagong against three major rating agencies. "

But the financial rating of a state that reflects the risk that it does not pay-or-bad debt, is not based solely on purely accounting. Moreover, France does not deserve an AA if only the statistics alone were taken into account by Standard & Poor's, according to calculations of Natixis.

Political risks

"The gap between Dagong and the three major agencies and explained in the apprehension of risk policy and governance," notes Juan Carlos Rodado, economist at Natixis, and author of a study on the methodology of rating agencies. An example: Venezuela has severely noted Standard & Poor's (BB-) by Dagong (BB +), because the former has less confidence in the Chavez government.Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's, unlike Dagong, also place a note on the weight of history. If a country has poorly paid its creditors in the past, such as Russia in 1998, the final verdict will be more severe. This factor discriminates against developing countries, and benefits the West.

At the heart of the statistical arguments, the Chinese agency promotes stronger economic growth and foreign exchange reserves, that is to say the cash generated by an entire economy thanks to exports. This way of clearly favors the emerging countries, major exporters (including China) and catching up economically.

The agency Dagong appears too severe, however, in general, said Jean-Christophe Caffet, an economist in charge of France, Natixis also: "She has placed virtually no major country in the AAA category, and those that are found are the debt markets rather narrow in which we can not really invest, such as Norway, Denmark, Luxembourg and New Zealand. "

Question of Independence

Also emit some doubts about the credibility of the agency Dagong. It has only twenty analysts to rate 67 countries, against 70 to 80 126 Standard & Poor's. In addition, its relationship with the Beijing government cast doubt on some Chinese economists, reports Le Monde. Finally, the same method as slides Juan Carlos Rodado, is not innocent: "When Dagong underestimated so the political risk, we understand the underlying interest."Namely encourage emerging countries close to China.

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While the Speaker of the House John Boehner had slammed the door to negotiations with the White House on Friday night, negotiations continued behind the scenes throughout the weekend between the Democratic allies of President Barack Obama, the Senate majority and their Republican opponents, who control the House of Representatives. But John Boehner told his troops on Sunday night that no breakthrough had yet been obtained.The head of the Republican majority in the House, Eric Cantor, considered the arguments of President Barack Obama "politics and indefensible."

The situation becomes very tense nine days of the deadline mentioned by the Treasury before a default. This morning, this concern has led to a relapse of the Asian markets. For their part, the U.S. markets, which had already ended Friday without direction, were on the downside Sunday night in electronic trading at the end of the weekend.

Greece is also in the news: Moody's today lowered the country's sovereign rating of "Caa1" from "It" with a development, saying the country was still facing major challenges medium-term credit.

Oil down

On the currency side, the dollar is penalized. The euro is rising against the greenback at 1.4367 dollar.Oil is also down. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for August delivery lost 1.08 dollars to 98.79 dollars. That of Brent North Sea crude for September delivery lost 60 cents to 118.07 dollars.

The American situation is also the only concern when no market indicator is expected on Monday.

Values ​​to follow

Areva: -1.83% to 24.88 euros, EDF: 0.28% to 27.24 euros

The new president of Areva, Luc Oursel, who succeeded Anne Lauvergeon end of June, will make his first official Monday by hosting one of its plants EDF's CEO Henri Proglio, showing the warming of relations between the two groups. EDF and Areva have signed an agreement at that time technically and commercially, prior to a more ambitious partnership signed in September low fee cash advance.

Banking

Crédit Agricole (-1.87% to 9.25 euros), BNP Paribas (-1.75% to 47.96 euros), Societe Generale (-1.75% to 37.41 euros), Axa (-1, 60% to 14.10 euros) suffer from degradation of the note of Greece by Moody's.

Axa, while welcoming the agreement reached by EU leaders on Greece, the insurers of the French Federation of Insurance Companies (FFSA) said they consider positively their participation in the project initiative of private investors in As part of the options.

Score: -0.24% to 18.50 euros

The reinsurer Scor said on Monday a 22% growth in constant currencies, the treaty renewals in non-life and specialties of the 320 million of premiums up for renewal in mid-year.

Saint-Gobain: -0.69% to 42.18 euros

The group will buy the network and Brossette Build Center in Wolseley.

Unibail-Rodamco: 0.51% to 158.30 euros; Klépierre: -0.13% to 27.14 euros

HSBC has initiated coverage of Unibail-Rodamco to "overweight" with a target price of 175 euros and raised its recommendation on Klépierre to "underweight" to "neutral."

LVMH: 0.08% to 129.35 euros

Consob is considering a complaint from an investment fund over the price offered to pay the French to buy the balance of Bulgari, confirmed Sunday a spokesman for the Italian stock market.

Total: -0.11% to 39.41 euros

The oil amounts to ten billion dollars (seven billion euros) of investment needed to develop the oil field north of Moho Bilondo off the coast of the Republic of Congo, said its CEO, Christophe de Margerie.

Valeo: -3.94% to 45.35 euros

The group announced Friday that its U.S. subsidiary Valeo Inc., based in Troy, Michigan, had received a request for information from the U.S. court as part of an antitrust investigation.

Fimalac: 0.29% to 27.90 euros

The group announced a sales increase of 11.9% on a comparable basis to 515.8 million euros in the first nine months of fiscal year 2010-2011.Its subsidiary, the rating agency Fitch Ratings has led to an increase of 11.7% of its turnover over the same period to 401.5 million euros.

After market, Seb and Klépierre publish their half year results, April Group will announce its earnings for the second quarter, Faiveley the first quarter. Mercialys and STMicroelectronics will publish their results for the second quarter.

When seventeen heads of state and government will meet Thursday at noon, it is not the technical options that were missing.Bail increased, lower interest rates, longer maturities, to the private sector or restructuring in good and due form, all solutions are on the table since that Greece came close to bankruptcy for the first time in spring 2010 .

What has been lacking, however, is the political will and responsibility in a Europe that receive capital not as a common project, but as a domestic policy variable. In contrast, the contagion effect can lead to collective reaction. With Italy last week, found himself the danger of a sudden the heart of the euro.

Rome is also dropped two warnings the most striking. "The creditworthiness of sovereign states is no longer a given," said Mario Draghi, the future President of the ECB at the address of the seventeen cities.And "like the Titanic, the first-class passengers themselves can not cope", predicted the finance minister, Giulio Tremonti.

Greek debt buyback

The warning covered Alps. For the first time, the finance ministers of the euro come to accept that markets and financial experts claim for months no fax payday advances. Yes, Greece, diving in the austerity and recession, may find themselves unable to pay on its debt maturities or interest. And no, a default is not to be excluded in the euro area. Only the ECB still refuses to admit it.

Under this constraint, but also recognized virtual summit Thursday that will tie up a second bailout of Greece. "The key is to improve the ability of Greece to support and pay down debt," insists the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble.In all cases, private creditors – banks and investment funds – will have to fire from, or participate in the effort.

The easiest is to help Greece to repurchase some of its debt through loans from the EFSF the bailout funds in the euro area. Germany has long opposed it in the name of financial orthodoxy. But the accelerated depreciation of Greek securities on the secondary market allows Athens to reduce debt on the cheap, which meets the stated objective in Berlin. The other option would be to exchange the securities for longer maturities.

The plan should cover the needs of public financing of Athens until 2014, some 100 billion euros.He may doubt that Dublin, Lisbon and other capital assisted want to enjoy the same flexibility in time.

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The government, for its part, wishes to inform that he "will remain very vigilant: there is no question that this effect is faster in case of decline," said the ministry in a statement. "This commitment by fuel distributors and the government ensure its respect."A meeting between Christophe de Margerie and Energy Minister Eric Besson is also scheduled for July 19.

Policies in the running

In this time of holiday departures, policies are indeed in line to demand that the impact of oil price increase is gradual. Prime Minister François Fillon has ruled that the proposed Francois Hollande to freeze fuel prices during the summer fell within the "demagoguery." "We must also tell the truth", that is to say "that oil will rise" over time, said the Prime Minister on Europe 1. And rather than to invent solutions that make no sense if not to influence the growth or the French taxes, we must work on alternatives to oil. "

François Fillon also said he "found that in June, the decline has been very well reflected by the distributors.It's a little less sure about the month of May, we are doing checks. " It responds to the controversy that has swelled after the statements of Xavier Bertrand: "When the oil increases, prices (pump) increase immediately. When the oil drop, it is always more time. We must stop to consider that the French have no sense, "denounced the Minister of Labour on Sunday. "To say that the price evolution is faster in one direction than another is not fair," retorted the President of the French Union of Petroleum Industries (Ufip), Jean-Louis Schilansky. Christophe de Margerie, in turn, ensured that the increase would take place Monday "as gently as possible."

Within the Socialist Party in the countryside for the primary election, the subject has provoked many reactions among candidates.Martine Aubry, said she was "very shocked by the decision of the President of Total" to pass on the rise the rise in oil prices: "I found both indecent and even provocative." To offset the price increases, the candidate suggested to lower the TIPP (domestic tax on petroleum products) and "tax the super oil profits."

"What is unacceptable today, it's that kind of inaction before a real scandal, said on his side Segolene Royal on BFM and RMC-TV. Total has 10 billion euros in profits (in 2010, note) and when the price of crude oil production decline, this decline is not passed to the consumer. " Finally, the spokesman for the PS, Benoît Hamon, assured that if the left came to power in 2012, "the impunity of the oil companies" would be "finished".

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