To a "big bang" tax after the presidential

The tax is sure to be one of the main themes of the campaign. First question of democracy: the French have always been upset with the tax. This is not new. But now they no longer understand the meaning. Taxpayers do not know why they are not taxed when the money from. They wonder if they are "just" dizzy and taxed at the constant changes in the foot of the state, making our tax system totally unpredictable, unreadable, and therefore ineffective.How many French know they will pay for the first time this year a portion of their housing tax for inter-municipal, that is to say, of municipalities, they know nothing? How many business owners know exactly how much they will pay in lieu of professional lataxe, removed last year in favor of two new taxes? Reconcile with the citizen taxpayer is more than ever an imperative, when the both of them were again tempted to exile.

Question of economic efficiency then. One can only be struck by the complete lack of fiscal strategy of the Finance Bill 2012, currently under discussion in Parliament. In the eyes of officials of Bercy, the only way to increase tax revenues is to remove the niches or benefits made in the tax calculation.More than half of the 11 billion euros in additional savings are announced in late August and the removal of some old tax benefits. Now that the idea has been fueled largely with public opinion than the 104 billion euros in lost revenue for state coffers that are the fiscal and social niches, half are "very effective" or "inefficient", this solution is actually the easiest to implement. But it can serve as long-term program. As niches, whose real term is "tax expenditure", are as fundamental to encourage private investors to replace the public investor.No niches, no investment in France, which already sorely lacking.

Reform the income tax

The tax reform in 2012 will revolve around three major issues: how to bring balance between taxation of wealth and income? How to get to his income tax progressivity? What future for VAT?

To these questions, the UMP and the PS will provide different answers, of course. But the rules are the same for all. France can no longer raise taxes. The tax ratio-mandatory, ie the tax burden, amounted to 44.5% of GDP, close to its historical levels (44.9% in 1999). But conversely, the disastrous situation of public finances prevents them down.The "big bang" will be announced fiscal totally bounded in the universe: it will be a rebalancing in depth, but revenue constant.

Some lines of force emerge. The income tax in its present form, is on trial. Two transformations are emerging: reconsider its progressivity, that is to say goodbye slices. Or merge it with the CSG, an idea that has the favor of PS and a large part of the UMP. This merger should not be mistaken, broaden the tax base, will make the income tax fairer, but will also be more painful for the average incomes.

Similarly, it will not escape a VAT reform. Since 2008, 15 European countries have found, for fiscal consolidation, so much so that the rate of 19.6% French is now among the lowest in the euro area, 1 point lower than the average.Especially down at the other, the government chose to lower it for some sectors (food, building …).

Finally, there is the balance between taxation of income and wealth. The most sensitive issue. Recently, in Le Figaro, the budget minister Valérie Pécresse explained: "By raising taxes on savings, we compare the taxation of wealth from that of labor income." The road has only begun. One can imagine what awaits holders of wealth in the coming years …

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Wall Street tumbles at the end

New eventful session Thursday on Wall Street. The indices, which have continued to increase their losses after the closing sharply down European markets fall at the close. The Dow Jones ended in a loss of 3.51% to 10,733.83 points, the Nasdaq lost 3.25% to 2455.67 points and the S & P drops 3.19% to 1129.56 points.

Like European and Asian stock markets, Wall Street is not immune to the anxiety surrounding the health of the global economy. This pessimism has been going on yesterday and pessimistic of the U.S. central bank. The Fed has held that the U.S. economic recovery was "slow" and threatened by "high risk". The central bank, in this context, announced an operation to extend the maturity of the assets it holds up to 400 billion dollars by June 2012."You can interpret this decision as the Fed's will not to launch three quantitative easing (monetary easing to boost the U.S. economy, ed) immediately, says Arnaud Poutiers, executive vice president of IG Markets.

The general concern about global growth has been reinforced by concerns about the economic situation in China. Manufacturing activity in the country has deteriorated in September, reaching its lowest level in two months, according to preliminary PMI bank HSBC said on Thursday. PMI Purchasing Managers calculated by HSBC in September reached 49.4 against 49.9 in August, knowing that a figure below 50 means contraction.

In France, the growth of private sector activity in September fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the recovery in 2009, while in Germany, the composite PMI, which includes industry and services, has emerged to 50.8, its lowest level since July 2009 against 51.3 in August.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner also said Thursday in Washington that the slow economic growth was a challenge "greater" than the debt and that the governments around the world should give priority to support growth .

On the issue of European debt disturbing fact, little progress.Greece has just announced yesterday it will launch new austerity measures to get the funding it needs Troika in October to avoid bankruptcy.

Oil tumbles 6%

The announcement of a rise in weekly jobless across the Atlantic is not reassuring. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, 423,000 people registered as unemployed during the week of September 10 to 17. The consensus of analysts expected 420,000 new applications for unemployment benefits.

The increase in the composite index of U.S. economic indicators slowed in August, which is a sign of increased risks to growth, said Friday the Conference Board.This index, which includes ten indicators supposed to give an idea of ​​the changing conditions in the United States within six months, rose 0.3% compared to July, where he won 0.6% said the institute of private economy.

On the front real estate, the price of houses increased by 0.8% in July compared to June, according to data released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. In one year, it appears down 3.3%.

In this context, oil has lost more than 6% of its value in New York, amid sharp strengthening of the dollar, within the scope of pessimistic compiled by the Central Bank of the United States, the leading consumer of gold black.

On the currency markets, the euro is trading at 1.3476 dollar.The oil, he lost more than 6% of its value in New York, against the backdrop of a sharp strengthening of the dollar, within the scope of pessimistic compiled by the Central Bank of the United States, the leading consumer of black gold. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery ended at 80.51 dollars, down 5.41 dollars (6.3%) compared to the previous day.

Values ​​to follow

On the corporate side, Bank of America (-5.02% to 6.06 dollars), Wells Fargo (-2.15% to 23.17 dollars) and Citigroup (-6.23% to 23.93 dollars) suffer further degradation of their notes by Moody's. The agency that the state may fly to their rescue.

Fedex (-8.17% to 66.58 dollars) has reported an EPS according to the consensus of $ 1.46 in the first quarter, a turnover of 10.52 billion dollars.

United Technologies (-8.75% to 68.32 dollars) will buy the equipment manufacturer Goodrich Aviation (10.10% to 120.55 dollars) to $ 16.5 billion (12.2 billion euros) cash, a transaction that would be the largest acquisition of U.S. industrial giant in 10 years.

Debt: France deserves what score she?

The three major rating agencies have Anglo-Saxon reassured after the deterioration of the U.S. debt rating by Standard & Poor's: France, with a AAA, will not follow the same path. At least in the coming months. An agency is an exception, the Chinese Dagong. It gives the country an AA-rating, while preventing it could soon lower it. Large agencies and small news, who's right?

Dagong is not severe with France. "She has a much more negative than Western agencies of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, observes in a note to Patrick Artus, head of economic research at Natixis.Regarding the situation of public finances and potential growth, we can only give reason for Dagong against three major rating agencies. "

But the financial rating of a state that reflects the risk that it does not pay-or-bad debt, is not based solely on purely accounting. Moreover, France does not deserve an AA if only the statistics alone were taken into account by Standard & Poor's, according to calculations of Natixis.

Political risks

"The gap between Dagong and the three major agencies and explained in the apprehension of risk policy and governance," notes Juan Carlos Rodado, economist at Natixis, and author of a study on the methodology of rating agencies. An example: Venezuela has severely noted Standard & Poor's (BB-) by Dagong (BB +), because the former has less confidence in the Chavez government.Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's, unlike Dagong, also place a note on the weight of history. If a country has poorly paid its creditors in the past, such as Russia in 1998, the final verdict will be more severe. This factor discriminates against developing countries, and benefits the West.

At the heart of the statistical arguments, the Chinese agency promotes stronger economic growth and foreign exchange reserves, that is to say the cash generated by an entire economy thanks to exports. This way of clearly favors the emerging countries, major exporters (including China) and catching up economically.

The agency Dagong appears too severe, however, in general, said Jean-Christophe Caffet, an economist in charge of France, Natixis also: "She has placed virtually no major country in the AAA category, and those that are found are the debt markets rather narrow in which we can not really invest, such as Norway, Denmark, Luxembourg and New Zealand. "

Question of Independence

Also emit some doubts about the credibility of the agency Dagong. It has only twenty analysts to rate 67 countries, against 70 to 80 126 Standard & Poor's. In addition, its relationship with the Beijing government cast doubt on some Chinese economists, reports Le Monde. Finally, the same method as slides Juan Carlos Rodado, is not innocent: "When Dagong underestimated so the political risk, we understand the underlying interest."Namely encourage emerging countries close to China.

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Obama gives assurance on Wall Street

The speech Barack Obama optimistic on economic prospects of the country begins to lighten the mood in the U.S. markets. The stock market indicators began to return gradually in the green, particularly reassured by the employment figures. At 18:50 Paris time, the Dow rose 0.89% to 11,485 points and the S & P gained 0.60% to 1207 points, the Nasdaq remains hesitant, remaining balance (0.02%) to 2256 points.

U.S. markets also appreciate the market rumors to the effect that the European Central Bank is ready to support the Italian and Spanish bonds, if these countries to undergo structural reforms.

The employment figures dictate trend

The announcement of a significant improvement in job creation last month seems to calm the situation on Wall Street Friday after a collapse in U.S. up over 4% yesterday.In recent weeks, disappointing publications on the state of the U.S. economy had, in fact, chained, challenging the idea of ​​resumption of the world's largest economy. This publication confirms the figures released Wednesday by ADP, reports of more new jobs than expected for the month of July.

At 21 hours the numbers of U.S. consumer credit for the month of June will end this week full of macroeconomic data.

Oil and euro pressure

Oil prices climbed hesitantly at the opening Friday in New York, despite the employment figures better than expected, as the market wondered if it would be sufficient to support the demand for crude in a very fragile economic environment .On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 87.04 dollars, up 41 cents from the previous day.

This concern also weighs on the currency front, the euro was trying to rebound against the dollar but remained under pressure from macroeconomic concerns.To 15 hours in Paris, the European currency was worth 1.4224 dollars against 1.4106 dollars on Thursday night, after falling to 1.4055 dollars in early Asian trade, its lowest for three and a half weeks instant payday loan.

AIG, GM and Procter & Gamble publish their accounts

On the corporate side, the semi-annual publications still dominate the news on Friday.

Thursday evening after market, the insurer AIG (-0.23% to 26.34 dollars) announced a return to the green of its accounts in the second quarter, with net earnings of $ 1.84 billion over the period, against a loss of $ 2.7 billion a year earlier. Per share, net income totaled $ 1 ($ 0.69 after tax, against $ 0.92 expected by analysts).

At the same time, and its first quarterly since its IPO on May 19, LinkedIn (-2.27% to 93.36 dollars) was positively surprised markets by announcing a turnover more than doubled the second quarter to 121 million dollars (120 euros) and net profit (4.5 million), where analysts expected a loss.

GM Motors (1.27% to 26.32 dolars) Thursday reported quarterly results exceeded expectations, with a near doubling of profits over the period.

Procter & Gamble (1.78% to 60.64 dollars) released before market on Friday for the fourth quarter of fiscal offset, net income up 15% to $ 2.51 billion.Of 2010-2011, so it shows a net profit of 11.79 Annual Statement billion, down 7% from the previous year.

Viacom (3.55% to 53.17 dollars), the parent company of MTV and Comedy Central, has reported a rise than expected in earnings thanks to strong revenue growth in advertising Cable and license agreements with websites. Its quarterly results (Q3) increased to $ 574 million against 432 million

Bank of America (1.70% to 8.98 dollars) is highly exposed to the most fragile countries in the euro zone, according to a document from the bank. The group said exposure to the tune of $ 16.7 billion (11.8 billion euros) in total to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain in June 30Management has indicated in a document submitted to the regulatory authorities that its losses could reach up to legal $ 2.3 billion in addition to the provisions already passed for this purpose.

The Cac hesitates on the threshold of 4000 points

The Paris Bourse is stabilized Friday morning after a nice session of increase recorded last night leCac 40 opens to the balance (-0.01% to 3981.96 points, still close to 4000 points a threshold that has not been touched for a month. The Greek situation reassured the financial world yesterday, as the Greek Parliament finally adopted the unpopular austerity plan, paving the way for the release of a next tranche of aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The euro has risen, moving at more than $ 1.45 this morning.

To be continued this morning Markit manufacturing PMI this afternoon and consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in June (2nd estimate), construction spending in May and the ISM index of activity in industry in June.

Investors also will monitor the U.S., where the issue of debt escalates.One report indicates that U.S. lawmakers should agree within three weeks on raising the debt ceiling, or the country will default.Timothy Geithner, the Secretary of the Treasury, would resign.

The figures in the automotive market

The Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers (CCFA) has released figures this morning the car market for the month of June and first half: the new car registrations in France fell 12.6% in June, in gross, with 210,236 units sold, Renault (-0.88% to 40.52 eruos) showing a plunge of 29.3%, said Friday the Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers (CCFA).

Renault breaks the price of his Renault Twingo, faced with falling sales, will sell for the first time one of his vehicles, the little Twingo at a price lower than the Logan, the model input range of its Romanian subsidiary Dacia, according to La Tribune.

PSA (-0.63% to 30.67 euros) is increasing in India The automaker is expected to invest 620 million euros in building its future manufacturing site in India, according to Les Echos. PSA will implement this facility in the state of Tamil Nadu, south of the country.

EDF EN signs a big contract

EDF. EDF Energies Nouvelles (-0.13% to 39.64 euros), a subsidiary of French group dedicated to renewable energy, has signed with the Danish Vestas Wind Systems for the use of wind turbines in Europe and the United States pay day loan lenders. The contract could provide the French operator up to 2000 megawatts over the period 2012-2014. The transaction amount was not disclosed.

LVMH (-0.36% to 123.65 euros).Philippe Pascal, who led for ten years, watches and jewelry division of LVMH, has been appointed adviser to Bernard Arnault, CEO of the world's number one luxury.

Areva (0.08% to 25.73 euros) said Thursday that the strategy developed since the creation of nuclear group by Anne Lauvergeon was a "success" and that his replacement did not involve a change of course.

EADS (-0.35% to 23 euros) Thursday announced the successful acquisition, through its subsidiary Eurocopter, the Canadian aerospace supplier Vector Aerospace, 98.32% of shares were made to the offer made in late May.

TF1 (0.48% to 12.60 euros) Thursday announced to be in negotiations to become the sole shareholder of Metro France, the eponymous owner of the free newspaper which claims 2.4 million daily readers.

Carrefour (-0.35% to 28.22 euros) has signed an agreement with Pixmania, the specialist in consumer electronics, to catch up in online sales of non-food.

Bénéteau (0.37% to 14.90 euros), leading manufacturer of sail, said that sales in the first nine months of fiscal year 2010-2011 and the level of its order book allowed him to confirmed its target of annual turnover of 920 million euros.

BioAlliance (-4.92% to 5.80 euros) Friday announced the launch of a capital increase of EUR 16.6 million to accelerate development of its portfolio of orphan drugs in oncology, particularly Livatag .

CGG Veritas (-3.13% to 24.60 euros): Goldman Sachs cut its price target to 29 euros against 31 euros previously and released the value of its company preferred.

Teleperformance (0.96%) would be an ideal target for a fund specializing in buyout leverage (LBO), analysts said while the global call center is not in debt and that its Capital is not controlled.

Valeo (2.47% to 48.24 euros) from the list of preferred values ​​of Morgan Stanley. The intermediate course is 67 euros.

Google sued in the Commercial Court in Paris

The blows rained down from all sides on Google. Friday, the U.S. competition has announced the opening of an investigation into the Internet group. Today was the turn of French society 1PlusV attack. Editor of topics such as search engines ejustice.fr, Google it assigns to the court of commerce of Paris to seek redress for damages caused by anticompetitive practices of the American giant. 1PlusV assesses his damages at 290 million euros, corresponding to the lost revenue (74 million) and potential revenue lost since the establishment of its business in 2007. The company also claims the publication of the disputed practices on the home page of the famous search engine.

"Unfair Competition"

This assignment in Paris in addition to two cases brought against Google by 1PlusV in Brussels.The first complaint, filed in February 2010, led the European Commission to investigate Google in November 2010. A few months later, in February 2011, filed a complaint 1PlusV further to extend the complaint to all of its search engines. It accuses two things at Google. First, the search engine "rigged" results in both favoring its own thematic search engines (called "vertical"), as in the book, video, maps, and feeding its index data Public collected without the consent of the site publishers guaranteed high risk personal loans. On the other hand, Google would have prevented 1PlusV to monetize their sites with advertising by conditioning access to its advertising to the use of its search technology (tying).

"We launched search engine in 2007, but they could not develop because of discriminatory practices of Google.Our company was nipped in the bud, "said Bruno Guillard, founder of 1PlusV. He now believes it has evidence, found by a bailiff, on practices that dereferencing Google was guilty. "There is unfair competition to the extent that Google gives the impression that their engine is more powerful than us. This assignment, which is intended to redress, the complaint does not stop Europe, covering an injunction to stop these practices, says Bruno Guillard. We believe that Google has answers to give. "

The Commercial Court of Paris could take from 16 to 24 months to rule on this complaint. Brussels, meanwhile, is in the process of peeling the replies to questionnaires sent to various European actors in the Web in early January as part of its investigation.While the debate over Net neutrality has been raging, it could well be extended to search neutrality.

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New suicide attempt at the Ministry of Finance

Ill-being at work does not spare officials. A union representative FO Finance tried to end his day on Friday, in full meeting of the Health and Safety (HSC) on working conditions within the Directorate of Public Finance (DGFIP). Several witnesses reported by AFP, the union is currently under observation in hospital, would have exposed the direction the difficulties encountered in connection with his work, before swallowing the contents of a tube of medicine .An accident that occurs just days after the suicide of another officer DGFIP, and one month after that of a labor inspector of Direccte (Regional Business, competition, consumption, labor and employment).

The report of activity to be examined on Friday at HSC, 27 suicides were reported to the Ministries of Economy and Budget in 2010, against 25 in 2009 and 24 in 2008. The growing number of these tragic events, the unions denounced the growing unease of the staff concerned, who suffer in their ongoing reforms. "Those from the general revision of public policies (RGPP) were a source of tension for the agents. But with the planned job cuts still 3100 jobs this year – working conditions deteriorate significantly, "worries Aubursin Lawrence, General Secretary FO."It comes to not being able to respond appropriately to user requests," says her assistant, Frances Gauchet.

A view shared by the occupational health department. "Problems related to job cuts are being felt throughout the hierarchy. This situation is not unique to the Ministry of Finance is now characteristic of the entire administration, "said one doctor. A fact made more difficult for agents to manage the discomfort in the workplace has long been taboo in the public service. For example it is extremely rare for a suicide to be recognized as an accident, unlike the private sector. But progress has been made so far in recent years. "There is now a real awareness of managers and the top hierarchy, the court doctor.A reflection on the organization is conducted, training frameworks in place … This is progress, even if these efforts are undoubtedly effective forced. "

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Who's next boss Bercy?

• Baroin: • promoting Valérie Pécresse: reward • Bruno Le Maire: the outsider

The countdown is running. Christine Lagarde flew to Washington Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday, she will spend his "great oral" before the Board of the IMF. Which will meet Tuesday to discuss the nominations before appointing a successor to Dominique Strauss-Kahn on June 30 at the latest. Barring a surprise, the Minister of Economy should take precedence over Mexico's Agustin Carstens. His entourage has the head across the Atlantic: "I proposed to the team Baroin to come and visit our offices to make the identification, said one adviser Christine Lagarde. They said: "It would be bad luck!" "

Several ministers are indeed in the running to replace Christine Lagarde. Budget Minister campaigned for weeks.His colleague of Agriculture, Bruno Le Maire, also dream of Bercy. But he seems to have thrown in the towel. The Minister of Higher Education, Valérie Pécresse, which has the support of Christine Lagarde, fingers crossed, too. "Lagarde loves Pécresse, provides an advisor to the Minister of Economy. She believes that appointing a woman to a woman's place is important. But it will not interfere. It is at a different level. It will soon have a status of head of state … "

First outsider, Valérie Pécresse seen its rating go up. She met with Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday, after the Council of Ministers. The head-to-head was officially on the large loan and the press conference the President on the subject Monday. But Sarkozy had discussed with her the replacement of Lagarde.In the majority, some believe that appointing a woman to this key position could serve as an able-fire against the candidacy of Martine Aubry in the primary PS, around June 28 "It is played between Pécresse and Baroin," believes a close associate of President. Anyway, the head of state will be careful not to harm women, already under-represented in key government positions since the departure of Rachida Dati and Michèle Alliot-Marie. "The president does not send negative signals about gender or diversity," Elysian swear an advisor.

"The king of herrings"

The head of state could also bring a handful of secretaries of state, whose arrival is announced in the fall. Two positions, at least, are vacant: Public Administration (since the departure of Georges Tron) and Veterans Affairs.If the president decides to bring more "new faces", it "out" of the incumbents. The Minister for Sport, Chantal Jouanno, could start to concentrate on the Senate. "We predicted a reshuffle at minimum, but the president could take this last opportunity to reshuffle the cards before the presidential election," warns a consultant Elysian.

Nicolas Sarkozy should especially take this opportunity to send signals to the centrists. "He wants to crack the clan Borloo," says an adviser. The Secretary General of the UMP, Marc-Philippe Daubresse, told relatives that he had received "assurances" of the president. He also began to prepare his cabinet. In a head-to-head, May 30, Sarkozy had mentioned to him a nomination "for Higher Education or Agriculture."The head of state could also try to "poach" the faithful lieutenant of Borloo, Laurent Hénart. Or, failing that, the former Minister for Overseas, Yves Jego.

The name of the UMP des Alpes-Maritimes, John Leonetti, who chose to live the radical sensibility within the UMP, runs well. The President has recently paid tribute to his "loyalty". But this expert on health does not agree with the health minister, Xavier Bertrand, who had vetoed his appointment in the latest revisions. MP centrist Maine-et-Loire Laffineur Marc is also discussed.

At the Elysee, is amused by this shell game. "The president in secrecy, says a consultant. It is the king of herrings. This will be between him and Xavier Musca. Even between him and …. "" The principle of a reorganization, is the surprise, "says the former minister Brice Hortefeux.

Baroin: promotion

Since coming into office in March 2010, Baroin was a faultless performance credit report. Budget Minister has managed to impose fiscal discipline to his colleagues in government, cutting spending and up to tackle the sacrosanct tax loopholes. Last week, under his leadership, the National Assembly adopted on first reading the supplementary budget, which confirms the removal of the tax shield and the reduction of the ISF. After inheriting the carrier parolat in November 2010, as Chirac ministers could it rise again in the government hierarchy? Many are in the majority, think he was already "well served". If appointed, the mayor of Troyes should release the carrier parolat. But it would keep the Budget. "The president likes him, but it a little suspicious," says a heavy weight of the UMP.The promotion, however, would give new pledges to Chirac, less than a year of presidential elections.

Valérie Pécresse: the reward

It was on the brink of being appointed Minister of Justice in November 2010. But the departure of Jean-Louis Borloo had distributed the cards, bringing the president to give the keys to the Place Vendome in centrist Michel Mercier. Valérie Pécresse has remained in Higher Education, under its charge since May 2007. A record of longevity that allowed him to impose the autonomy of universities, often presented as one of the most emblematic reforms of the quinquennium. "It showed it was broken in the dialogue," said a relative. Deemed "woodcutter" Pécresse is a graduate of ENA and HEC. She speaks English and Russian, and "getting by" in Japanese.Christine Lagarde to Chantal Jouanno, many women ministers would like to see at Bercy. But that Chirac, who sometimes appears as "a good little soldier," a disability: she has never been among the close to Nicolas Sarkozy, sometimes it annoys. For many in the majority, yet it seems that the "best position" to Bercy.

Bruno Le Maire: the outsider

Barring a surprise, Bruno Le Maire should remain in agriculture. He dreamed yet to be entrusted with the Economy, as he had dreamed of Foreign Affairs in 2010. "With each redesign, the Mayor is an active campaign, the air of nothing," enjoys a minister. The former right hand of Dominique de Villepin, whose rise in "Sarkozi" has been meteoric, has serious advantages. Normale technocrat and he mastered the economic issues. Also the IE speaks English, German and Italian started."This is a contest of economics, not of languages!" Squeaky Elysian counsel. The Mayor has invested heavily in the agriculture component of the G20, is prowling and multilateral negotiations. But Sarkozy fears of destabilizing the farmers, who appreciate their minister. The Mayor would also annoyed by "highlighting" the role of project manager in 2012: "For the president, only the Socialists in the country, says an adviser. Put themselves forward on the project was awkward. "Failing to be appointed at Bercy, the Mayor may be given door-parolat.

Mr. X: The temptation of an expert

The magnitude of the crisis in Greece could it bring Nicolas Sarkozy to choose an expert on economic Christine Lagarde to succeed? A heavy weight of the majority is seriously considering this option, arguing even the name of Thierry Breton, CEO of Atos Origin.The former Minister of Economy (2005-2007) mastered the issue of public debt. His appointment would also have political virtues, the source said, "Breton is a friend of Chirac, Raffarin and de Villepin. And they bite Borloo he is near. "Many consider this hypothesis unlikely:" What interest would have to leave the private Breton for an acting position on the eve of 2012? "Enjoys a counselor. The name of the centrist Anne-Marie Idrac is also cited. Edouard Balladur was blown to the president. Former Minister of Foreign Trade may assert a strong background at the head of the RATP and the SNCF. But it is "not aligned" with Sarkozy and "speaks her mind." The government, cohabitation was not always easy with its responsible Minister Christine Lagarde. However, the next holder of Bercy will get along with the next IMF chief.

Greece: Restructuring considered inevitable and frightening

Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic.

While European leaders seek to reassure financial markets by saying that Greece's debt will not be restructured, some strategists say the opposite. "To get out of financial crisis plan which moved the European countries, Greece should be restructured" hard, "said Christophe Donay, chief strategist at Pictet & Cie. In other words, Europe must draw a line under some of Greece's debt-what I call a partial-defect, while recapitalizing banks recorded losses due to restructuring. "

However, the solution currently under discussion at EU level aims to do everything to avoid a "credit event" on the Greek debt, that is to say a default. It is thus considered a new loan to pay 60 to 65 billion euros by 2014.The private sector would also be involved, banks are encouraged to continue investing in the Greek debt to the tune of 15 to 20 billion euros.

"But by giving more money to Greece, Europe or the private sector maintain the regime crisis," says Christophe Donay. "Reading the financial markets on the debt of European countries has changed. Until then, they adopted an accounting approach. In other words, they wondered how Europe should pay to save a troubled country. Today, they wonder whether the European countries generate enough growth to pay off their debts to five or ten years. "

45 years to meet the Maastricht

For Strategist Pictet, the conclusion is clear: the growth rates of financially troubled countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain) are insufficient to finance their debts payday loans.Thus, Greece, Ireland and Portugal are expected to show annual growth of 21%, 13% and 8% in ten years to achieve a debt / GDP ratio of 60% as required by the Maastricht criteria. And if one was considering realistic annual growth rate (2%), it would take 45 years to Greece to meet this criterion and 30 years of debt to Ireland. "It is not clear that financial markets are waiting so long," concluded Christopher Donay.

Time is the right thing yet to the euro zone, according to Anton Brender, Chief Economist at Dexia AM. "Lack of Greece, alone, does not pose a problem in itself," he said. But such an event is likely in the current fragility of other countries in the periphery, causing a phenomenon of contagion.If Greece fails, why not also Ireland or Portugal, who also receive assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, will wonder when the markets.

Beyond even this group of countries at risk, "there is a risk of transmission of the crisis countries such as Belgium, Italy and Spain," continues the economist. "You have to give time to the latter, especially, to leave the area of ​​infection by standing on a stable trajectory of debt reduction", defends Anton Brender. For this, one must combine austerity and growth, two goals are incompatible in the short term.

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Wall Street does not go up the slope

The NYSE has attempted to initiate a mini-rebound Thursday. In vain. Economic statistics are still bad on Thursday and Valuers bank saddled the trend. Thus, the Dow Jones lost 0.56% at 12,220 points, the Nasdaq yields 0.16% to 2765 points while the S & P fold from 0.41% to 1309 points.

Yesterday, U.S. markets have taken a double slap (more than 2% losses) with first a series of bad macroeconomic indicators that raise doubts about the health of the world's largest economy. Then with Moody's decision to degrade three notches note of the Greek debt. The rating agency has cooled the financial markets had begun to hope that a solution be found to stabilize the financial situation of the country.

On Thursday, investors do not turn the page of this session was the worst recorded since August 2010.Bad numbers have fallen:

– The weekly jobless claims fell less than expected in the United States during the week to 28 May, against 422,000 428,000 (revised) the previous week, said Thursday the Department of labour.In economists on average expected 415,000 entries in unemployment.

– U.S. inventories of crude oil rose against all odds last week, said Thursday the U.S. Agency for Energy Information (EIA). Crude oil inventories rose 2.88 million barrels to 373.81 million. Economists on average had expected a decline of 1.3 million barrels [EIA / S]. The oil prices were down sharply after the announcement. Ceded $ 1.42 a barrel after a fall already marked.

On the currency side, the single currency continues to rise against the greenback. One euro is worth more than $ 1.44.For their part,

However, non-farm productivity rose more than expected in the first quarter, while unit labor costs rose slightly more than expected, according to the second estimate published Thursday by the Labor Department. Productivity, which measures hourly output per employee rose by 1.8% instead of the 1.6% increase announced in the first estimate. The market expected it to climb by 1.7% over the period from January to March.

Other bad news affecting U.S. banks this time: Goldman Sachs (-1.61%) received a subpoena from prosecutors in New York who want to learn more about its role in financial crisis.In addition Moody's "could reduce" the credit ratings of Bank of America (+0.35% to 11.28 dollars), Citigroup (+0.15% to 39.71 dollars) and Wells Fargo (+0, 28% to 27.02 dollars) on behalf of a hypothetical reduction in state support for large U.S. federal institutions in the country. The rating agency notes that the current notes of banks take account of public aid granted by the Treasury at the height of the financial crisis.

Google and China: Paper

Internet giant Google (+0.25% to 526.93 points) was monitored after the announcement of a hijacking Gmail accounts by hundreds of Chinese dissidents and American officials. While Google suggests a Haker Chinese, Beijing denounced the remarks "unacceptable."

The distributor Costco Wholesale Corporation (+0.12% to 80.31 dollars) has reported a net profit of $ 324 million in the third quarter of 2010-2011 (73 cents per share), up 6% the same period last year. Based on the number of share, earnings were 73 cents. Turnover was up 16% to $ 20.2 billion, with a jump of 12% on a comparable basis.

Limited Brands (-5.48% to 36.59 dollars) has announced a 6% increase in May same-store constant at 717 million dollars. But this figure is below expectations of analysts who had forecast an increase of 7%.

The mining equipment manufacturer Joy Global (3.07% to 88.70 dollars) has reported a profit of 34% to 162 million in the second fiscal quarter, or $ 1.52 per share. Income climbed 19% to 1.06 billion.It's better than $ 1.35 per share and $ 1 billion expected by markets. The group also revises upward its forecasts. It now expects earnings per share between $ 5.60 and 5.30 against 5.10 to 5.40 before.

WPP (-3.78% to 11.95 dollars), the leading global advertising in terms of revenue, announced Thursday an organic growth above 6% during the first four months of the year, thanks including a good performance in the United States.