Crisis: CEOs more pessimistic than in 2008

Worse than the fall of 2008, "58% of business leaders consider an inevitable deterioration in the economic situation," according to the survey conducted in 2011 by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Paris (CCIP). This survey was conducted during September, with 5000 businesses with fewer than 500 employees, representing the economic fabric of Ile de France and the country as a whole. There were only 48% of patrons to express such a fear in September 2008, at the time of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, which would trigger a few months later a global recession – in France, in particular, GDP declined by 2.5% in 2009.

A remake of 2008-2009 is in everyone's head. But comparison is not right."Companies now have to pay much less than in 2008 and stocks the contrary, they have much better treasuries, said Pierre-Antoine Gailly, President of the CCIP. For the whole of France, their current account deposits at banks now amount to 180 billion euros, 20 billion more than in 2008. "

The CCIP also notes that if the concern that banks limit access to credit are large, this fear has not yet materialized. Moreover, the dreaded cold snap on the situation at the moment is focused on Europe, while in 2008 it had distributed instantly worldwide. Clearly the multiplier effects that had abruptly fired three years ago now seem less formidable.The current crisis follows a phenomenon much more confidence that it reflects a mechanical depression guaranteed unsecured personal loan.

Bring to a faster response to the crisis in Greece

Thinning can therefore act only through a return of confidence, it says in the CCIP. First in Europe: it is faster to make a response to the crisis in Greece and more generally to uncertainties in the sovereign debt.

Second key point: the situation of banks and their ability to finance the economy. There also should clarify the situation, including the definition of the application of Basel III on capital requirements.

Third dimension, unique to France, the presidential campaign. She never held in such a climate of economic turmoil, with what is more significant questions about a possible alternate.Two factors, by definition, anxiety, do you recognize the CCIP where one refrains from taking sides of course on the merits. Much will depend on the conduct of the presidential campaign, knowing that in times of uncertainty the temptation of inaction is great for business.

Everything will be in the speech

The survey conducted last September marked a sharp decline in climate, especially in SMEs. The synthetic indicator currently stands at 91 down from 106 in September 2006, at the last presidential campaign for SMEs. For larger companies, this indicator is 96 against 104 five years ago. While governments have no fiscal space to influence the deal, everything will be in the speech. The power of words never been so great.

Obama gives assurance on Wall Street

The speech Barack Obama optimistic on economic prospects of the country begins to lighten the mood in the U.S. markets. The stock market indicators began to return gradually in the green, particularly reassured by the employment figures. At 18:50 Paris time, the Dow rose 0.89% to 11,485 points and the S & P gained 0.60% to 1207 points, the Nasdaq remains hesitant, remaining balance (0.02%) to 2256 points.

U.S. markets also appreciate the market rumors to the effect that the European Central Bank is ready to support the Italian and Spanish bonds, if these countries to undergo structural reforms.

The employment figures dictate trend

The announcement of a significant improvement in job creation last month seems to calm the situation on Wall Street Friday after a collapse in U.S. up over 4% yesterday.In recent weeks, disappointing publications on the state of the U.S. economy had, in fact, chained, challenging the idea of ​​resumption of the world's largest economy. This publication confirms the figures released Wednesday by ADP, reports of more new jobs than expected for the month of July.

At 21 hours the numbers of U.S. consumer credit for the month of June will end this week full of macroeconomic data.

Oil and euro pressure

Oil prices climbed hesitantly at the opening Friday in New York, despite the employment figures better than expected, as the market wondered if it would be sufficient to support the demand for crude in a very fragile economic environment .On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 87.04 dollars, up 41 cents from the previous day.

This concern also weighs on the currency front, the euro was trying to rebound against the dollar but remained under pressure from macroeconomic concerns.To 15 hours in Paris, the European currency was worth 1.4224 dollars against 1.4106 dollars on Thursday night, after falling to 1.4055 dollars in early Asian trade, its lowest for three and a half weeks instant payday loan.

AIG, GM and Procter & Gamble publish their accounts

On the corporate side, the semi-annual publications still dominate the news on Friday.

Thursday evening after market, the insurer AIG (-0.23% to 26.34 dollars) announced a return to the green of its accounts in the second quarter, with net earnings of $ 1.84 billion over the period, against a loss of $ 2.7 billion a year earlier. Per share, net income totaled $ 1 ($ 0.69 after tax, against $ 0.92 expected by analysts).

At the same time, and its first quarterly since its IPO on May 19, LinkedIn (-2.27% to 93.36 dollars) was positively surprised markets by announcing a turnover more than doubled the second quarter to 121 million dollars (120 euros) and net profit (4.5 million), where analysts expected a loss.

GM Motors (1.27% to 26.32 dolars) Thursday reported quarterly results exceeded expectations, with a near doubling of profits over the period.

Procter & Gamble (1.78% to 60.64 dollars) released before market on Friday for the fourth quarter of fiscal offset, net income up 15% to $ 2.51 billion.Of 2010-2011, so it shows a net profit of 11.79 Annual Statement billion, down 7% from the previous year.

Viacom (3.55% to 53.17 dollars), the parent company of MTV and Comedy Central, has reported a rise than expected in earnings thanks to strong revenue growth in advertising Cable and license agreements with websites. Its quarterly results (Q3) increased to $ 574 million against 432 million

Bank of America (1.70% to 8.98 dollars) is highly exposed to the most fragile countries in the euro zone, according to a document from the bank. The group said exposure to the tune of $ 16.7 billion (11.8 billion euros) in total to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain in June 30Management has indicated in a document submitted to the regulatory authorities that its losses could reach up to legal $ 2.3 billion in addition to the provisions already passed for this purpose.

Italy adopts final plan of austerity

The Italian Parliament has given its final green light Friday to a strengthened austerity plan to bring the country away from the debt crisis and attack markets awaiting test results of resistance experienced by 91 banks Europe.

After being passed to the charge Thursday by the Senate, the austerity plan of nearly 48 billion euros has been voted permanently in the afternoon by the Chamber of Deputies with 316 votes to 284 against and two abstentions, a speed unprecedented in the history of Italy, and suggestive of a "miracle" to the President of the Republic the former communist Giorgio Napolitano.

Italy, attacked by the markets last week, had to accelerate the adoption of this plan as a spread of the debt crisis in the country could kneel throughout the euro area including the Peninsula is the third largest economy.

Uproar inside the country

The austerity plan, however, raised a storm of protest within the country. "This plan is yet another crap, it affects poor people," denounced Friday in an interview with Corriere della Sera Antonio Martino, former minister Defense of Silvio Berlusconi. The president of the employers' association Confindustria, Emma Marcegaglia, for his part denounced a plan "based on substantially higher taxes."

Italy is being targeted by the markets because of its huge public debt of 1900 billion euros, representing about 120% of GDP, which is dangerously increase the cost of borrowing for the country.Among the measures to reduce the deficit include the launch of a privatization plan in 2013, the introduction of user fees, freezing salaries and hiring staff, a severe reduction of tax deductions and allocations of local local, as well as more severe conditions for pensions. The Bank of Italy, which has raised slightly its growth forecast for 2011 from 0.9% to 1%, felt that a continuation of the debt crisis would have a "significant cost".

The very large public debt remains the most vulnerable point of the Italian economy, especially in this climate of great uncertainty and fear of the markets, "said in an interview with La Repubblica the EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Olli Rehn.

(With AFP)

Meat: The Mayor wants to renegotiate the price

Facing the worst drought since 1976, farmers have to contend with a rare forage whose cost increases, and meat prices down sharply. An equation that puts some farms in particularly difficult financial situation.

In order to relieve the profession, the Minister of Agriculture Bruno Le Maire today called the various stakeholders in the sector – farmers, manufacturers and distributors – to get around the table to renegotiate the price of meat on the rise, by the end of June FNSEA had claimed last week to hold such negotiations, under an agreement signed in early May under the auspices of the Minister. This agreement, however non-binding plans to open discussions when production costs increase beyond a certain threshold, as is the case today because of rising feed prices business card."Farmers, particularly small meat producers are in a terrible situation. [...] They are tired of seeing prices fall. They need to have a price signal, "held Friday Bruno Le Maire.

Some slaughterhouses have to refuse applications

The red curve represents the evolution of prices in 2011, the blue 2010 prices, the prices in black in 2009, and the dotted black 2008 prices of adult bovine animals at the entrance to the slaughterhouse.

Apple after the iPhone and iPad, the revolution icloud

Monday night, Steve Jobs must have Apple's service icloud. Using a deal with record companies, the Cupertino company will upgrade its online music service iTunes. Customers can purchase their music from Apple's online store and listen to their wishes, where they are. The service called "cloud computing, or cloud computing, grow fast. This is a new revolution in computing. It is to connect to the Internet to access data and applications. Individuals no longer need to store on their PC or hard drive at home, and businesses no longer need to invest in high-performance computers.

The computer then used to open the application as a water faucet or turn on a light.Apple already offers a first service "cloud" to synchronize the network, contacts, emails and diary, from an iPhone or an iPad. The MobileMe service is very expensive (99 dollars or 79 euros per year from France).

Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic.

Amazon has shown the way

Google will launch this summer the free operating system for PCs, Chrome OS, designed and filmed for the cloud. "The biggest users of cloud services are already without knowing it, individuals using tools such as Gmail or Google pay services data storage from Amazon," said Lew Tucker, Director Technical cloud at Cisco.With his offensive, Apple created a new front against Google, Amazon and Microsoft.

One of the largest global provider of cloud services Amazon is the world leader in cultural services in line with an estimated turnover in this area at one billion dollars in 2010. The original idea of ​​the champion of e-commerce, which has expanded its services to music storage for individuals, was to lease excess capacity of its own "farms" of computers. "It comes down to your apartment when it is empty during the workday and when you go on vacation," says one expert. All the giants of the Web follow the lead of Amazon. In economic terms, the marginal cost is low for providers of computing power and storage capacity low interest rate personal loans. The additional revenue generated almost as much profit.For ten years, computer manufacturers, software publishers and computer services companies dream of a paradigm shift.

56 billion market

With the development of the Internet and especially because of the economic crisis, companies have converted to cloud computing. "After years of germination, cloud computing takes off. Partly for macroeconomic reasons. The crisis led all organizations to scrutinize their spending. In this context, a solution which can offer more for less is difficult to ignore, "says Ben Pring, vice president of research firm Gartner. For now, most of the market is done by software. The turnover of the software on demand is estimated around $ 11.7 billion in 2010 by Forrester Research. Today, 60% of worldwide turnover is made in the United States.But the phenomenon should spread to other countries. By 2020, the worldwide market will reach $ 56 billion, says Forrester Research.

With about 3 million business customers worldwide including one million in Europe, Google makes between 500 million and $ 1 billion in sales in the cloud. Finally, Microsoft will invest 90% of its budget on R & D in the cloud this year, said Jean-Philippe Courtois, senior vice president of Microsoft. But its sales in the area is estimated at "several hundred million dollars a year," admits a group leader. Each offers its solution. IBM, HP, Dell, Microsoft and Oracle want to use huge "farms" of servers to store and rent computing power to their customers. To this end, HP and Dell have acquired companies in the storage and data virtualization, in order to compete with VMware, a subsidiary of EMC.The market also attracts telecom giants like Cisco, Ericsson and Huawei, and specific actors, such as Akamai, Rackspace Hosting or Salesforce.

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Wall Street does not go up the slope

The NYSE has attempted to initiate a mini-rebound Thursday. In vain. Economic statistics are still bad on Thursday and Valuers bank saddled the trend. Thus, the Dow Jones lost 0.56% at 12,220 points, the Nasdaq yields 0.16% to 2765 points while the S & P fold from 0.41% to 1309 points.

Yesterday, U.S. markets have taken a double slap (more than 2% losses) with first a series of bad macroeconomic indicators that raise doubts about the health of the world's largest economy. Then with Moody's decision to degrade three notches note of the Greek debt. The rating agency has cooled the financial markets had begun to hope that a solution be found to stabilize the financial situation of the country.

On Thursday, investors do not turn the page of this session was the worst recorded since August 2010.Bad numbers have fallen:

– The weekly jobless claims fell less than expected in the United States during the week to 28 May, against 422,000 428,000 (revised) the previous week, said Thursday the Department of labour.In economists on average expected 415,000 entries in unemployment.

– U.S. inventories of crude oil rose against all odds last week, said Thursday the U.S. Agency for Energy Information (EIA). Crude oil inventories rose 2.88 million barrels to 373.81 million. Economists on average had expected a decline of 1.3 million barrels [EIA / S]. The oil prices were down sharply after the announcement. Ceded $ 1.42 a barrel after a fall already marked.

On the currency side, the single currency continues to rise against the greenback. One euro is worth more than $ 1.44.For their part,

However, non-farm productivity rose more than expected in the first quarter, while unit labor costs rose slightly more than expected, according to the second estimate published Thursday by the Labor Department. Productivity, which measures hourly output per employee rose by 1.8% instead of the 1.6% increase announced in the first estimate. The market expected it to climb by 1.7% over the period from January to March.

Other bad news affecting U.S. banks this time: Goldman Sachs (-1.61%) received a subpoena from prosecutors in New York who want to learn more about its role in financial crisis.In addition Moody's "could reduce" the credit ratings of Bank of America (+0.35% to 11.28 dollars), Citigroup (+0.15% to 39.71 dollars) and Wells Fargo (+0, 28% to 27.02 dollars) on behalf of a hypothetical reduction in state support for large U.S. federal institutions in the country. The rating agency notes that the current notes of banks take account of public aid granted by the Treasury at the height of the financial crisis.

Google and China: Paper

Internet giant Google (+0.25% to 526.93 points) was monitored after the announcement of a hijacking Gmail accounts by hundreds of Chinese dissidents and American officials. While Google suggests a Haker Chinese, Beijing denounced the remarks "unacceptable."

The distributor Costco Wholesale Corporation (+0.12% to 80.31 dollars) has reported a net profit of $ 324 million in the third quarter of 2010-2011 (73 cents per share), up 6% the same period last year. Based on the number of share, earnings were 73 cents. Turnover was up 16% to $ 20.2 billion, with a jump of 12% on a comparable basis.

Limited Brands (-5.48% to 36.59 dollars) has announced a 6% increase in May same-store constant at 717 million dollars. But this figure is below expectations of analysts who had forecast an increase of 7%.

The mining equipment manufacturer Joy Global (3.07% to 88.70 dollars) has reported a profit of 34% to 162 million in the second fiscal quarter, or $ 1.52 per share. Income climbed 19% to 1.06 billion.It's better than $ 1.35 per share and $ 1 billion expected by markets. The group also revises upward its forecasts. It now expects earnings per share between $ 5.60 and 5.30 against 5.10 to 5.40 before.

WPP (-3.78% to 11.95 dollars), the leading global advertising in terms of revenue, announced Thursday an organic growth above 6% during the first four months of the year, thanks including a good performance in the United States.

Slight decrease in advertising on TF1

After the rally of 2010, TF1 faces a more difficult first quarter of 2011. During this period, the private audiovisual group saw its turnover increase by 2.9% to 614.4 million euros. However, the advertising revenue of the antenna TF1 down 2.6% to 353.3 million euros, due in March and April in the semi-shade. However, this figure suffers from the comparison with the strong rebound in early 2010. Good news, the group's net profit jumped 47.9% to 48.2 million.

These results come at a time when TF1 faces another challenge: how to perk up its newscast of 20 hours, while there is the challenge of the presidential important moment in the life of a great chain. The launch on Thursday night, a political meeting monthly at 20 h 15 is the forerunner with this shortening of the slice info most ritualized television.Because as the campaign intensifies, "Word direct", hosted by Laurence Ferrari and François Bachy, head of policy TF1, will be more recurrent. Two years ago, France 2 was the precursor with a newspaper reduced to 25 minutes.

And indeed, for a little over a year, the differences between the two JT in terms of audience share is shrinking. In July 2010, it is also taken much for France 2 to outweigh the first private channel. Since the incidents are increasing. TF1 naturally continues its leadership, but now falls steadily below the four-point gap with France 2.For now, however, the average "20 hours" by Laurence Ferrari -27.6% audience share for the month of April, according to Médiamétrie-still higher than the channel TF1, which itself falls to 23.4%.

Financial strength

But the differential is less important than that between the "20 hours" of France 2, which shows an average 22% audience share, when the television channel France 2 as a whole does not exceed the 15% share hearing direct payday lenders.

Nevertheless, the power of advertising and financial TF1 still stands. Indeed, if the hearings "20 hours" are crumbling, the advertising market share in the chain has never been as strong as it reached nearly 55%."The point of no return will happen when advertisers will not accept pay for a hearing less than half of the advertising market share," said one observer.

But for Sebastien Danet, president of media agency ZenithOptimedia France (Publicis Group), "there is no disaster or industrial accident. TF1 remains commercially agile and can adapt its rates at the hearings. Bids are adjusted in real time. Moreover, given its power, remains an important interlocutor TF1 carried by the effectiveness of the media. "In fact, the authority has noted the erosion of the television news, since the prices of monitors have dropped by about 7 % on this time slot. Dominique Delport, the boss of Havas Media France, not far from thinking of himself: "TF1 rates in accordance with its audience. Moreover, few chains in Europe can offer advertisers an audience with 25% of a country.In addition, France Televisions had no screen after 20 hours, the performance of its JT are less strategic. "

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CL: Tapie responds to accusations

This is yet another twist in the case Tapie – Credit Lyonnais. Nothing seemed to preclude the payment of 285 million euros to the former businessman after the tribunal's decision of 7 July 2008 that condemned the Consortium de Réalisation (CDR) for the management of liabilities Credit Lyonnais in the dispute between Bernard Tapie, Adidas business background.

But on Wednesday, an information report of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly has given fuel to the fire. The latter, which precedes the imminent publication of a report from the Court of Auditors on the subject, believes that the arbitration agreement, which included the waiver of any right of appeal, had "signed a different version" that mentioned by the Board of CDR.

At the heart of the controversy: a possible addition of the notion of "moral damage" between the first version of the document and the version eventually signed. The first version approved by the Board of CDR would have limited "the amount of all claims [the lawyers of Bernard Tapie] to 50 million euros". The compromise finally signed limit "the amount of all of their claims for moral damages of 50 million euros".

According to Jerome Cahuzac, Rapporteur and Chairman of the text of the SP Committee on Finance of the Assembly, the wording should have been falsified at the time of signing. Moreover, the failure to submit the "moral damage" to the ceiling of 50 million euros would have allowed a much higher compensation finally Bernard Tapie. These facts, if true, are likely to cancel the arbitration decision.MP sees "a substantial change in conditions of the compromise in a way that will prove very supportive husband Tapie and very costly for public finances." He said the subject would be "of paramount importance for public finances since the compensation for moral damages was left to the discretion of the judge that the arbitration process is confidential (…) and that are n had not to pay taxes. "

Bernard Tapie cons-attacked on Friday. In a letter to Jerome Cahuzac, which Le Figaro has obtained a copy, he recalls that "the state so taxpayers through the Credit Lyonnais at the time nationalized bank, made a profit at its expense and an illegal manner four times what it was made. "It also accuses Jerome Cahuzac have written a "partial report" and not taking "account of exculpatory evidence in its possession." The Administrative Court had approved the use and "to arbitration even though the CL there was unfavorable" and above had validated the concept of "moral damage, for which compensation is intended primarily to cover the insufficiency of assets As part of the liquidation, by referring to the abnormal behavior of the bank in respect of spouses Tapie, accompanied by a media campaign particularly violent. " Interviewed Friday by Le Figaro, Jean-François Rocchi, president of CDR, "insane" n'entretenir tampering and ensures "no relationship with Bernard Tapie.

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Volkswagen recalls 71,000 vehicles

Numerous vehicle recalls involve decidedly all manufacturers. In fact, Volkswagen, known for its reliability, will turn brown cars in its factories. The German manufacturer has announced yesterday the recall of 71,043 of its Jetta model family sedans, year 2011, the United States. The cars concerned are those built between March 2010 and March 2011.

Involved, the electrical system of its anti-theft alarms. Fuse responsible for protecting the burglar and converter boxes connected to the windshield and headlights are faulty. Thus, in some cases, a short circuit occurs and prevents the power headlights and windshield wipers.

Technicians are already hard at work to replace the potentially defective. But the manufacturer wishes to emphasize that, at present, no accidents were reported.

A model at a reduced price

But the recall could feed the many criticisms of this new model produced in Mexico and mainly distributed in the U.S. where it flows close to 100,000 copies a year. For some fans of the brand, the new version of the Jetta has lost many of its assets without adding new features guaranteed approval cash advance loans. In fact, to be more competitive and attract a wider audience, the Volkswagen has trimmed its U.S. equipment. The price of this new model has also been reduced.

These price declines have been decided at the height of the crisis and while the competitive market of the automobile was particularly moribund. The big players have thus been forced to trim their costs, a fact which might explain the massive recalls of vehicles from all manufacturers.In fact, the number of recalls made in recent months in the Japanese Toyota exceeds 8 million. The Chrysler has recently issued a recall on almost 250,000 vehicles. And last week, South Korea's Hyundai Motor has recalled 190,000 cars in the U.S. while the Japanese Honda was back in its 21,700 factories in the United States and Canada.

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The Tokyo Stock Exchange drops after the earthquake

The Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange has accelerated its losses late in the session, after a massive earthquake off the coast of north-east has triggered a tsunami warning. The index closed down 1.7% to 10,254.43 points.

The Japanese market was closed for the weekend when the first information on the consequences of the earthquake were just beginning to circulate. The air, road and rail are paralyzed throughout the country.

The yen also accused the coup: the Japanese currency fell against the dollar at the news of the disaster.The greenback, which evolved around 82.75 yen by late morning, jumped to 83.30 yen in the minutes that followed the quake at a magnitude of 8.8.

Investors were already gloomy, worried about geopolitics

All the Asian financial centers are displayed in red, concerned about the continuing rise of oil prices, the market closely following the situation in Saudi Arabia after the call for demonstrations in the kingdom, first largest exporter of crude. These same geopolitical tensions had already weighed on prices Thursday on Wall Street, the U.S. stock market ended down almost 2%, its biggest drop since August, and thus enhancing the pessimism on Asian markets .

Despite a decline in oil prices Thursday, worries about the Middle East so the above resume.In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for April delivery took 14 cents to 102.84 dollars. However, that of Brent North Sea crude for April delivery yielded 23 cents to 115.20 dollars. Inflationary pressures which cast doubt on the extent and strength of the global economic recovery.

Chinese Inflation above expectations

In Shanghai, after the disappointment surrounding the publication Thursday of a larger trade deficit than expected in February, it announced a rise in inflation in February on the Chinese consumer prices, higher than expectations, which prevents the return of confidence on the Chinese site no fax cash loans. Rising consumer prices rose 4.9% in February in China, well above the official target of 4% set by the government.Enough to bend slightly the CSI 300 Index of Shanghai from 0.15% to 3275.21 points.

The remarks of the governor of China's central bank have failed to reassure markets. The revaluation of the yuan is not a "major tool" to fight against inflation in China, Zhou Xiaochuan said Friday, reiterating that Beijing would implement a reform "gradual" exchange rate as its monnaie.Rappelons major trading partners of China are calling for a rapid revaluation of the Chinese currency, which continues to be secured tightly to the dollar, against which she has gained about 4% since June 2010.

Balance in India

Elsewhere in Asia, investors keep the same caution vis-à-vis a gloomy macroeconomic situation. Taiwan TAIEX Index of Taiwan and South Korea's KRX 100 fold respectively 0.87% and 1.26% at 8567.82 points and 4168.39 points.For its part, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong yields 0.73%, to 23,441.70 points.

Net decrease also on the Australian site, the S & P / ASX 200 upgraded from 1.17% at 4644.80 points. Finally, the FTSE Singapore Straits Times was down 0.78% at 3051.53 points and the Indian Sensex is almost at equilibrium, down from 0.19% to 18,293.80 points.