Axa was less affected by Greece that the banks

A nice trading day for Axa. The title of the insurer took 4% to 10 o'clock Thursday morning while the CAC 40 is given a little air, with an increase of 0.45%. Investors welcomed the good half done by the insurer that has quadrupled (324%) profit to 3.99 billion euros.

This performance is significantly higher than the expectations of analysts who had expected an average net profit of 3.7 billion. But Axa has mostly benefited from a favorable base effect. The increase in net income is in fact supported by exceptional gains of 1.44 billion euros from the sale of the 15.6% of Veolia capital of the life insurer China Life Taikang and the sale of its New Zealand and Australia."In this environment (of European debt crisis), we publish the results are good, satisfactory and show Axa's fine," said CFO Gerald Harlin, during a conference call.

Confirmation of the Plan 2015

The insurer stands in relation to banks about the impact of the Greek crisis on its accounts. While the financial cost runs into hundreds of millions for BNP Paribas (850 million), Crédit Agricole (650 million) and 395 million to Société Générale, Axa has placed "only" 92 million euros in provisions for impairment assets in its bond portfolio of the Greek state No teletrak payday loan.

In contrast, exposure of the insurer in Italy, estimated at 6 billion euros against 300 million for Greece, is much more important. "We have no reason to reduce our exposure to Italy and Spain," said Henri de Castries."We are confident that Italy is absolutely the means to repay its debt, simply that the European institutions give a stronger signal of support towards Italy for the markets calm down," said Denis Duverne, the deputy CEO of Axa Business on BFM radio.

If the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain because of the turmoil in financial markets, the CEO of Axa, Henri de Castries is "confident". It provides Axa is on track to achieve its 2015 targets.

The Cac 40 up sharply after the U.S. agreement

Relief. Is the word that prevails today in all of world stock markets, after U.S. lawmakers passed this night finally put to agree on raising the debt ceiling. In the wake of the Asian stock markets, the benchmark index in Paris advance to its first weekly session of 1.28% to 3718.38 points.

Last week, the inability of the United States to solve the problem of public finances had weighed on investor sentiment. In Paris the CAC 40 was indeed touched its lowest level in session year (3,630.75 points), while Wall Street finished its worst week in a year, despite the intervention of Obama Friday in an attempt to reassure debt.

After the relief 10 days ago on Greek sovereign debt, optimism is therefore in the financial Parisian.After weeks of negotiations, elected Democrats and Republicans have indeed finally found common ground on the amount of new ceiling, avoiding the world's largest economy is in default of payment in the coming days. According to preliminary information provided by the White House, the debt ceiling would be raised to 2.1 trillion dollars, which breathe new life in the United States on the forehead of the debt until 2013, after the presidential elections. This agreement in principle will also enable the countries to continue to borrow on the markets beyond the August 2 deadline set by the Treasury.

The reaction of rating agencies expected

On the other hand, no excessive optimism sustainable are to be expected in financial markets, at least until the U.S. Congress has not ratified the agreement. The first submission is expected to vote that day.Furthermore, few details have yet filtered on measures taken to reduce the deficit in the U.S., which does not exclude the possibility of deterioration in the rating of the sovereign debt of the United States.

For now, the first tranche of spending cuts of $ 1 trillion is expected. Then a bipartisan special committee of Congress will be responsible for finding the end of November additional expenditure cuts amounting to 1.5 trillion dollars. A total of 2.5 trillion dollars in budget cuts, all over 10 years. From this point of view, the reaction of rating agencies in this agreement called the "medium term" should be widely followed by markets in the coming hours.

On the currency front, the dollar has benefited only modestly from the announcement of the night, illustrating the temporary nature of such an agreement.Around 6:00, the euro slipped against the dollar at 1.4385 dollars against 1.4395 on Friday, but climbed against the yen at 111.67 yen against 110.41 Friday. For its part, the dollar set off again up significantly against the yen at 77.63 yen after briefly reached 78 yen, 76.73 yen against Friday night.

In terms of oil prices were up Monday morning in electronic trading in Asia, where the market relieved by this agreement in extremis. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery gained 1.53 dollars to 97.23 dollars. That of Brent North Sea crude for September delivery was appreciating $ 1.25 dollar to 117.99.

Macroeconomic side, investors should look carefully at the unemployment figures for the month of June (11am).Overseas are also expected to 16h construction spending for the month of June, the ISM manufacturing index for July.

As for values ​​to follow

Last week, the many semi-annual publications were rather disappointing, adding to the nervousness of investors. The pace slows publications this week, though are expected in the next three days the details of the interim bank shares. After the U.S. agreement, the entire sector was also well oriented (BNP Paribas will publish Tuesday, Wednesday Societe Generale, Natixis and Axa and Thursday).

EADS announced this morning that the takeover from Apax Partners Vizada, a provider of communication services for 673 million euros, the second largest acquisition in its history. The transaction will be financed entirely by cash.

Eiffage reported a slight slowdown in growth in the second quarter despite a sharp rebound from its construction activities, the division of public works who registered a decrease over the period.

Outremer Telecom. A draft tender offer simplified to the telecom operator was introduced by OMT Invest, a structure controlled by Axa Private Equity, according to a notice to the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) and released Friday.

EDF Energies Nouvelles (EDF ENR) has entered into exclusive negotiations with Capital Perceva to cede control of Supra, the fund feeds the project to file a simplified takeover bid at the end of the process.

General Health issued a sharp drop in operating profit in the first half due to exceptional items, but its revenue rose due to higher acute care stays.

Recylex published Friday sales for the second quarter increased significantly, from 32% to 125.34 million euros, supported by an increase of 48% of its business in recycling lead thanks to rising 16 % of lead prices and increased sales volumes.

Air Liquide. The gas giant reported Monday a 11% increase in net profit in the first half, to 750 million euros.It maintained its forecast a "steady increase" in net profit for the year.

Note that Gameloft will publish its interim results after market close, while Le Noble Age unveil at the same time state sales for the same period. The British bank HSBC, which is listed in Paris, finally published its results for the first six months of the year.

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The government is mobilizing to the development of telework

Working from home one or two days a week: an impossible dream for most of the French, a reality for many Americans or Scandinavians. While telecommuting is over 30% in Finland, Sweden or the United States, it reaches 18% on average in Europe, it lags behind true in France with a rate of 9%.

However, telework is now greatly facilitated by the development of broadband networks and the boom in smartphones. But the benefits are many, for the employee, but also for businesses and the community. For the employee, it reduces stress, travel time, can increase efficiency and to better balance professional and personal life. For the company, it is a source of local savings and productivity gains.It is also an element of flexibility because it can help extend the service to customers, allowing more time slots adapted to their needs. Finally, for the community, promotes telework planning, reduced emissions of greenhouse gas emissions and relieving congestion. Thus, according to estimates, telecommuting one day a week could reduce by 5% carbon emissions.

Main obstacle: the manager

With this in mind, Eric Besson, Minister of Industry, is determined to eliminate the backlog of France. Pragmatic, he launched a study on the practice of telework in large companies. The results of this study will be published later this year.Conducted by the consulting firm Greenworking, this study aims to identify best practices and identify key success factors to foster the spread of teleworking in France. More than a dozen major companies have already agreed to participate in the study.

In the public sector, negotiations on telework in 2011. In the private sector, a dozen agreements were signed last year in large groups in the CAC 40. Based on volunteering, telework arrangements have been set up at Renault, Alcatel-Lucent, Dassault Systems, EDF, France Telecom and Microsoft. Axa, which has 76 telecommuters, the goal is to move to 200 people by the end of 2012.

But the brakes remain. Rather than legal, they are primarily cultural.Some employees are more justification in their work attendance and their results. But it is mainly the managers who are often opposed, fearing the loss of part of their power and status … Even if, ultimately, the overall results of their teams are improved.

German banks at the forefront in Greece

If European leaders want to involve rescuing investors from Greece, they will have to negotiate primarily with German banks. They are in fact those who hold more government debt, amounting to $ 22.7 billion (15.5 billion euros), according to figures released Monday by the Bank for International Settlements. The French came second, with an exposure of 15 billion dollars (10.3 billion euros).

A total exposure of all European banks in Greece's debt stands at $ 52.3 billion (35.8 billion euros). By adding the two other countries receiving EU aid and the IMF, Ireland and Portugal, the figure stands at 100 billion euros. German institutions hold almost two thirds of this amount.

Particpiation private

Friday, EU leaders said they reached agreement on the extension of aid to Greece. About 60 to 65 billion euros that the new plan would cost a quarter, or 15 to 20 billion euros would come from the private sector. He would ask investors to reinvest in Greek debt money recovered when their bonds mature.

Such an initiative would demonstrate that participation in the effort from the private sector has been explored, "said Justin Knight, strategist at UBS AG, quoted by Bloomberg. "This could lead to voters to accept a new European public aid" to Greece business card. The Germans would, however, according to Die Welt, go further and require banks to extend loan periods, exchanging bonds maturing by other securities of a longer duration.

Default risk

However, "some sources suggest that asking banks to exchange the Greek bonds could trigger precisely a failure," says Luigi Speranza, an economist at BNP Paribas CIB. The rating agency Fitch estimates for its part in a note published Monday that even an exchange of debt on a voluntary basis, if it is unfavorable to creditors, may be considered a "credit event", ie ie a payment default.

In this context, EU leaders are walking a tightrope. Especially since the European Central Bank reiterated Monday his opposition to the restructuring of state debt. "Imposing a discount to private investors can seriously disrupt the real economy and financial creditor and debtor countries, has said Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, board member of the institution.Therefore a restructuring would be done as a last resort, that is to say when it is clear that the debtor country can not repay its debts. "

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Nuclear RWE and EON angry and France under pressure

The German government "plays with the competitiveness" of the country by accelerating the dropping of the atom civilian judge the boss's number two Germany's RWE, the megaphones and nuclear. Juergen Grossmann said that Germany wants "a future without major international groups in the energy sector," it said in the daily newspaper Bild on Wednesday in reaction to the decision of the German state of halt atomic energy by 2022.

For its part, the country's leading sector, EON, warned he would sue the position of Chancellor Angela Merkel to accelerate the abandonment of nuclear energy, and in particular not to abandon the tax nuclear fuel, saying that this tax "raises legal."The tax was created as a part-cons to a longer than twelve years of the life of the 17 nuclear reactors in Germany, decided last year and then canceled in a hurry after the disaster of Fukushima. She must report 2.3 billion euros per year in the German state. Proceeding in the same sense that Jürgen Grossmann, the group has also ensured that such decisions penalize investments in renewables and disability meet its European competitors.

A meeting Thursday, June 9 in France

In France, the pressure rises. On Wednesday morning, the Energy Minister Eric Besson announced on 9 June a meeting of the energy system to assess the consequences of the German decision. He acknowledged that France Info France would be affected "in the short term," deprived of a source of imports, when drought increases the need for electricity."The immediate halt of the seven nuclear plants in Germany removes about 10% of its electricity production", which means that "Germany will no longer be able to export, or much less," said Eric Besson.

The minister also said that delaying the opening of the public inquiry into the proposed EPR nuclear reactor Penly – it was to open on Wednesday 1 June – did not mean a "stop the process of public inquiry to Penly, recalling that President Nicolas Sarkozy had reaffirmed the nuclear option.

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Virtual operators have built a true position

On Monday, the Post Office is officially launching its own mobile phone service for individuals, known as La Poste Mobile. Launched via the SFR network, it provides another example of diversification into telecoms. The opportunity to take stock of the growing power of these operators without their own network, but both rely on niche marketing and / or community to get a place alongside the historical giants such as Orange , SFR and Bouygues.

• What is a MVNO?

The acronym stands for MVNO Mobile Virtual Network Operator. Translated by "mobile virtual operator" or "no operator's own network," he means an operator who does not have spectrum or infrastructure.Appeared in France in 2005 to deregulate the telecom sector, so these new actors use an existing network, content to buy from the incumbent operators (Orange, SFR and Bouygues) of the minutes of their telephone then sell to their customers under their own brand, and to freely set their rates. The lack of investment, extremely heavy to develop its own network, allowing them to offer more competitive rates of around 15% to 30% depending on the offers. However, funding for equipment (reimbursement of part of the phone purchased at the time of signing the Contract) is often low or even zero. Hence the overall time commitment shorter than big operators.

• Who are the main MVNO?

According to the criteria Arcep (Regulatory Authority for electronic communications and postal services), are considered only MVNO operators virtual assets is not controlled mainly by a network operator. The first, and one of the oldest among them is Virgin Mobile, which uses the Orange network and accounts for about 2 million customers after a gain of 161,000 customers in the first quarter of 2011.Other MVNOs independent, we find NRJ Mobile, Omer Mobile (Virgin Mobile, Breizh Mobile, Mobile Casino, Mobile Tele 2) Afone, Auchan Telecom, Carrefour Mobile, Coriolis Telecom … According to Arcep, MVNOs controlled by operators network are German Debitel (SFR), Mobisud (SFR), Ten (Orange) and Neuf Cegetel (SFR).

• What is their weight against incumbents?

According to the latest figures from Arcep, the market share of these operators has reached 8.4% in the first quarter of 2011, 5.294 of customers / lines, against 7.5% a quarter earlier (4.7 million customers / lines). A jump rarely observed, partly due to terminations "without charge" offered by the incumbents when the VAT hike in telecom.In the first three months of the year, Orange, SFR and Bouygues have lost about 542,000 customers, cons 566,000 SIM cards earned by virtual operators. Long, these MVNOs have struggled to take off, remaining stuck on the 5% market share. In France, the number of virtual operators is generally the average of other European countries, but their relative weight remained below the European average (13%). To observers, the weight could quickly exceed 10%.

• Why market share has it difficult to take off?

At first glance, this growth remains weak. However, "at the time of their appearance there are 4 or 5 years, we would not bet on this rate of progress," an expert analysis of the sector.For cause, "the mobile market is marked by a certain inertia, with only 25% of subscribers who switch operators each year, for, most often spend an incumbent to another."

Especially since the captive customers of Orange, SFR and Bouygues is accentuated by long periods of time commitments (usually 12 or 24 months). With growth in the number of subscribers increases by a further 3 to 4% per year, "at the end, the MVNO capture each year between 9 and 10% of gross new subscribers," concludes the analyst. "In five years they have managed to build a position not so bad, with marketing means much more limited than those of larger operators."

• MVNOs are they a threat to Orange, SFR, Bouygues?

Certainly, the presence of these players has driven prices down, in a market long remained oligopolistic.However, network operators also have an interest in the existence of MVNOs, praising them as their network, and offering some of their services (voice, customer service …) they optimize the use of their infrastructure. They can also grow rapidly in population or niche clientele where they are still very present.Some MVNOs have indeed relied on population categories (geographic, cultural, ethnic, business, etc.). By taking control of the MVNO, the incumbent attracts new customers with offers less traditional but particularly well adapted to a particular population segment.

• The licensing 4G is it good news for these operators?

The terms of the call for tenders launched May 16 by the Ministry of Industry for the licensing of fourth generation (4G) to exploit frequency at very high speed, was a priori well received by MVNOs. They consider that the division of lots allows small operators to try their luck. However, unlikely that one of them decides to enter only the dance.Eric Besson, Minister of Industry, Energy and the Digital Economy, believes that "nothing prevents the entry of a fifth mobile operator (with Orange, SFR, Bouygues and Free ). But technically and financially, the operation would be a miracle.

"The ticket to a single lot on the frequencies in the 2.6 GHz band is 150 million euros, said an analyst in Paris. Now, a new entrant can hardly afford a single lot, as it would soon be limited in terms of throughput, and therefore very little competitive. " Moreover, beyond the high price of lots, the acquisition of licenses from a new entrant assumes that subsequently develops its own network, and thus it furnishes a hand in his pocket. For example, Free, who began to build its own 3G network after obtaining his license two years ago, has estimated its capital to 1 billion euros over five years.And this just for the antennas. Unless several MVNOs together to diversify the sector with network operators, only Free seems to be able to shake the current landscape.

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Portugal in the Greek system

The country is preparing for two years of recession. This is the price of economic modernization demanded by the IMF and the European Union to pay the 78 billion euros of assistance plan, after the rescue of Greece and Ireland.

The recession is expected to "2%" this year and next year, warned Thursday the Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, for 2011 is double what was originally planned. Unemployment is also expected to jump up to 13% in 2013 before declining in subsequent years.

"The program is tough, but necessary and right," acknowledged the European negotiator Jürgen Kröger. "The economy will face significant headwinds in the coming three years," said Premier Poul Thomsen of the IMF, which provides for recovery "in the first half of 2013." But donors stressed that there was little alternative.The Portuguese economy is suffering from under-competitiveness and "without this package, the reforms have been more rapid and painful," assured Mr. Thomsen.

The program rests on three pillars: fiscal adjustment, with lower expenditure equivalent to 3.4% of GDP, especially in health and pensions, continued structural reforms, with an extensive program of privatization and an overhaul of legislation work and dynamic financial sector, with the establishment of a safety net 12 billion euros to banks in exchange for an increase in their capital ratios fast payday loan. The details will be formally adopted at the Eurogroup, May 16

Lisbon Area will stay out of the market for almost two years.The interest rate paid on the portion IMF (26 billion euros) will be calculated on a basis of 3.25% in the first three years, and 4.25% thereafter, according to a senior official of the Fund.

Sacrifice unpopular

The package will, however, far less than many feared, reducing the deficit more gradually than expected. But the sacrifices incurred unpopularity is likely to take center stage at the approach of parliamentary elections on June 5. The main opposition right-wing has already hinted that he would support him. "It must be clear in the campaign that the future government will implement this program," however, hammered Mr. Kröger. Portugal will need the funds by 15 June, the date of repayment of a loan of 4.9 billion euros.

It will also silence the growing discontent in Europe face the new rescue.Before Lisbon, he had help Athens (110 billion euros) and Dublin (85 billion), without reach to prevent speculation on a debt restructuring Greek. In Finland, the Portuguese plan hostility looms over forming a coalition government. And Germany voices were raised yesterday to ask that Portugal first sell its gold.

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The hearings of its leaders jostle TF1

Click image for larger graphic.

TF1 has weathered the financial crisis of 2009, but for nearly nine months, the chain collects bad audiences, particularly in primetime. The proliferation of "industrial accidents" on the most strategic time slot of television has been gradually mounting concern internally and makes the situation urgent in the eyes of some. Laurent Storch, head of programs, is put on the spot, even if Nonce Paolini, CEO of the chain, said it was not unworthy. Given these facts, the time for reflection has sounded at TF1. Jean-François Lancelier, CEO of Antenna Group, late engineer of the grid TF1 since 1997, could further strengthen its influence in the group.

It must be said that all kinds of programs are met and that the chain is struggling to defend its historic leadership.The clear victory of France 2 at the wedding of Kate and William, last Friday rocked the chain.

Periodically, the string displays of audience shares below its average weekly was 23.5% last week and the monthly was 24.5% in March. Whether varieties, games, sports, magazines, series or reality TV, the woes have multiplied since the month of September. Past failures to date, "The big show for children", April 30, which has not exceeded 20.3% audience share, while the day before the game "Family explorers" did not is more than 14.8%, almost ten points lower than the monthly average. Even football is no longer a recipe, and Chelsea / Manchester, April 6 last collapsed to 17 free 3-in-1 credit report.5% audience share."Ushuaia Nature", one of the major brands of chain, also had its failures with a score just over 18% last December.

The resounding failure of "Square VIIIp"

As for emissions of humor, laughter does federates more since "The 100 biggest balls" has not taken off the 17.5% audience share. Besides the resounding failure of "Square VIIIP" last March, which will redraw the map of reality television on the first private channel. And if the advertising is its tariffs on the screens of primetime, but she conceded substantial cuts on edges of access and night time.

Another concern, information and sacrosanct JT 20 hours. If the one on Monday in the death of bin Laden has assembled 7.2 million viewers and an audience share totaled 28.4%, the indicators are red since the beginning of 2011.Chain displays regular hearings less than 27% during the week. The questions are multiplying around the presenter Laurence Ferrari, and the editorial policy of demanding news director Catherine Nayl seems challenged, even if it retains the confidence of absolute Nonce Paolini. Finally, if TF1 is ahead in the great major political appointments – such as interviews with head of state – in contrast, France 2 is on a par or better than the first private channel on the great events as have shown on July 14 or the wedding of Kate and William.

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The war began in savings

"Frankly, I am interested in your money": this clash of the BNP did not last long in the 1970 No bank would dare today to show his frontispiece, yet it has never been so relevant. Whether at the counter or on the home pages of online banks, retailers are currently struggling to raise cash from businesses and some 200 billion saved every year by French households paydayloans. All opportunities are good. A mortgage? Some lenders offer more attractive rates if the borrower is guaranteed to leave a cushion of deposits.

The royal wedding will be costly to the UK economy

The princely marriage between William and Kate be enough to revive the British economy? Nothing is less certain. Despite the media whirlwind and the important marketing surrounding the event, the positive impact on the business, whether sales of products or benefits for tourism, a sluggish economy will not reverse (drop 0.5% of GDP in the fourth quarter), weighed down by a severe austerity.

It could even have a cons-effect on production, if one believes, the Federation of Small Businesses, because of the eleven days of vacation grant themselves the British, between Easter and the wedding day, holiday. Federation, quoted by Bloomberg, down from 6 billion pounds (6.75 billion euros) loss for the economy, 10 times more than expected revenue, estimated by Dataminor to 620 million pounds.

"It's wishful thinking to imagine that people will feel better or spend more," said Jonathan Far, chief economist at Capital Economics. As bright as it is, the smiling young engaged does not erase the billions of budget cuts, the 350,000 jobs lost in the civil service, tax increases and inflation, growing twice as wages.

Besides, the English showed little passionate marriage fast cash without a hassle. According to a recent survey, 45% say they do not want the webcast. They prefer to take the opportunity of a great bridge between Easter and the day of the ceremony, to afford a trip abroad. Of the eleven days they are more than 3.5 million to leave British soil, advance tour operators.An exodus for the season that will boost sales by airlines and travel agencies.

"If marriage boost sales this month, it will not be enough to restore consumer confidence," said Stephen Robertson, director general of consortia in the distribution. The industrial morale, anticipating higher prices, has relapsed in April, according to a monthly survey by the Employers' Confederation, the CBI filed Tuesday.

The index measuring the state of order books deteriorated significantly, falling to -11 points against five in March. And evaluating the export orders himself declined to -6 points against five month précédent.La publication on Wednesday of GDP for the first quarter, will be closely watched.Economists expect a slight increase around 0.3%.

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