Wall Street offers a strong rebound

The rebound was confirmed on Tuesday on Wall Street after two weeks of choppy stock markets worldwide. The New York indexes opened higher in small (0.22% for the Dow, 0.36% for the Nasdaq), after a session very agitated. But they gradually accelerated their progress. Only the earthquake of magnitude 6 that shook the East Coast of the United States shortly before 20h (French time) slightly slowed the increase without transactions are disrupted. The Dow Jones gained 2.95% to close at 11,175.10 points and the Nasdaq dominated by technology wins at 4.29% to 2446.06 points.The broader index S & P 500 finished its part of a gain of 3.43% (38.53 points) to 1162.35 points.

The only macroeconomic indicator on the agenda on Tuesday, however, was likely to reinforce fears of the market: sales of new housing in the United States have in fact declined by 0.7% in July, following declines of 2 9% in June, according to the Commerce Department. On an annual basis, the sales trend to 298,000 units (300,000 in June after), while analysts on average had forecast 310,000. If other indicators will be announced in the coming days, investor caution, but market volatility, however, should remain in force throughout the week until Friday.

That day, in fact, speak the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke.Speculation is rife, some still hoping that it will decide a third monetary easing to support the U.S. economy. Will also be unveiled for the second estimate of U.S. GDP for the second quarter.

Banks and investment funds turbulent agitated

Oil markets, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October closed up 1.02 dollars to 85.44 dollars in New York. As for gold, it never ceases to reach new records: the precious metal has reached this morning for the first time in its history to 1900 dollars quick payday loan.

As for values, the securities of the banking sector managed to recover. Monday, banks have suffered a lot and have weighed most heavily on the Dow. On Tuesday, Bank of America finally finished down 1.87% to 6.30 dollars.The bank, however, lost up to 6% to 6.01 dollars after losing 7.9% Wednesday on rumors of capital increases.

UBS gained 5.23% to 13.64 dollars, while Goldman Sachs ahead of 0.33% to 106.86 dollars, a government source who reported that the bank had hired Reid Weingarten, a lawyer of reputation, that markets see as the harbinger of a tough legal battle over the role of the bank in the financial crisis of 2008-2009.

News is expanded on the side of investment funds. The fund Cerberus and its partner Chatham Lodging Trust and have informed the United States real estate company Innkeepers Trust (Marriott franchise) they did not buy the walls of 64 of its hotels in the United States.The transaction, amounting to $ 1.1 billion, was announced in May.

The investment fund Jana Partners in New York and the pension fund Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, shareholders of the publisher McGraw-Hill (4.45% to 38.69 dollars), for their part stated the recommended separation group's activities. The two investors, who had announced in early August have acquired a total of 5.2% of the capital, advocated in a paper presented to the authority of the U.S. equity markets (SEC) that the group split its divisions Education, Information and Media and stock index Standard & Poor's.

Finally, on the front of mergers over the world stock markets, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) approved on Tuesday the merger of NYSE Euronext (5.17% to 26.23 dollars) and Deutsche Börse (-0.67% to 56.52 dollars) that should give birth to the first global exchange operator.

"The user usually has nothing to fear"

Is this the end of unlimited Internet packages at home?

No operator has no plans to do so today. The buzz started on the Internet by Owni skidded. The presidents of the major operators have simply said in recent months that they would go to differentiate their offerings and those who consume the most could be more involved. But the average consumer has no chance of being involved.

What consumers might be affected?

This is very, very heavy users, a very specific segment of customers that are found in all countries. These are 5% to 10% of consumers who use 80% of the bandwidth, because they spend their time downloading movies, make video at all times, spend the day on Facebook with video, YouTube, Dailymotion cash advance payday loan. The population is fairly limited.Perhaps operators will they have different prices for those? Maybe they will limit their bandwidth? Nothing is decided. But the ordinary user of the Internet has nothing to fear.

Is not a disguised means to raise prices for everyone?

No. On the contrary, the good news of the season is that competition only increased with the arrival of new players like Virgin Mobile or the post office in the market for Internet box. This will add new offerings on the market, which is already very busy. The French are very lucky: they can take advantage of competition.

Wall Street still heavily lower

Concern persists on Wall Street. In early trade, the Dow Jones unscrewed from 2.06% to 11,008 points, the Nasdaq 3.10% to loose 2408 points and the S & P lost 2.74% to 1140 points. As in Europe, signs of nervousness are palpable. The volume of trade is still very well fleshed out and heightened volatility. "At this stage, investors dizzy," says Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services.

On Wednesday, Greece again worried investors. The country plans to expand its exchange program to include obligations of the securities in the longer term, which penalizes first private creditors.

In addition, operators are even very concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. Yesterday, the world stock markets have overreacted, and positive against all odds, to about the Fed.This has indeed ensured that it would maintain its rates at a historical low, and until mid-2013 to support the economy. Its leaders also promised various stimulus, but without specifying its content. It will probably wait until his final release in late August. On the merits, however, the Fed has painted a disturbing report from the world's largest economy. Growth, pointing in particular the U.S. central bank, is growing at an annual rate of less than 1% in the first half, where the institution expected, earlier this year, more than 3%.

In contrast, oil prices were up sharply at the opening Wednesday in New York, in a market where investors were trying to regain footing after heavy losses, and pending the report of the stocks in the United States payday loans.On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 81.20 dollars, up 2.40 dollars compared to the previous day.

Cisco News Corp expected

On the business side, Cisco (-1.68% to 13.82 dollars) will unveil its results later this evening the fourth quarter, along with News Corp (-5.36% to 13.77 dollars).

Disney (-12.72% to 30.29 dollars) falls after the media group has yet announced quarterly results better than expected thanks to strong advertising revenue on its cable networks.

The title of U.S. internet group AOL (-8.85% to 10.20 dollars) has lost over a quarter of its value on Tuesday at the New York Stock Exchange after the release of disappointing quarterly earnings and lower forecasts. The stock has dropped 25.75% against the current of a market up sharply.The action even reached 10.36 dollars during the session, the lowest price ever since the split with Time Warner in 2009.

Facebook on Tuesday launched a new application for mobile phones iPhone (Apple) and those equipped with the Android operating system (Google) to send messages to his "friends" on social networking, but also to other contacts. Called "Messenger", the application can send both text messages (SMS) and email.

Apple (-1.11% to 369.85 dollars) briefly delighted yesterday to ExxonMobil, its position as the first market capitalization.

In China, inflation still climbing

The Chinese inflation beating record after record. In June, the price index reached a new high for three years, to 6.4% yoy. A figure up sharply from the month of May, when inflation was already high, however, to 5.5%.

This increase is mainly the result of rising food prices. After droughts and floods that have occurred in China in the spring, the cost of power has indeed increased by 14.4% in June over a year. Pork, the first meat consumed in the country, even took 57.1%, said the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Faced with the risk of social tensions generated by the rising cost of living, the Chinese government has done since the fall of 2010 the fight against inflation its top priority in economic matters.The central bank has already raised five times the interest rates since last October, and nearly ten times the rate of reserve requirements for banks, hoping to slow the pressure on prices. As a result, the volume of lending has slowed, and China's economic growth begins to suffer from these austerity measures. In the first quarter, it has reached "only" 9.7%, after 10.3% in 2010.

The tax threshold raised

If inflation remains particularly high, many analysts believe it has reached in June, its highest level. The figure published on Saturday morning is indeed partly the result of the recovery policy conducted by the Chinese government during the crisis, when control measures against inflation for their part have not yet produced their full effect."The rise in prices should slow down continuously from June to between 4% and 4.5% by the end of the year and remain at that level for several years," predicts and Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in a statement.

The Chinese government had already announced in June that the goal of a previously displayed inflation contained below 4% in 2011 would not be attainable. Beijing should try to stick to a figure of 5%. Until such a slowdown, the tax threshold will be raised in the country from 1 September to restore purchasing power to lower classes. The new tax threshold is now set at 320 euros monthly income.

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Cerutti: Cerutti, "A magazine for families in the study with TF1"

July 9, Vincent Cerutti present the second issue of "Sosie Sosie or not" in prime time on TF1. A vote of confidence granted by the private channel to its new host, after a first edition earlier this year. Readily compared to "Surprise of making" the show had launched Marcel Béliveau in 1989 in France, "Sosie Sosie or not" brought 5.2 million viewers on 1 January (23.8% audience share ). "This proves that the concept pleases, said Vincent Cerutti. The difference with "taking on Surprise" is that it is no longer the stars who get trapped, but the stars who, in a role against type, trap and anonymous. " Three programs are planned this summer, 9, 16 and July 23 in prime time, with about twenty guests in total.Whether TF1 wants to make a recurring issue, "it depends figures and viewers," concedes the presenter, who denies receiving any pressure or targets to hearing from the chain. Maybe TF1 wants to install a new brand with this program, at least we'll try, "says he.

Earlier this year, who made his debut on TNT channel local TV Le Mans (LM TV), was screened at the presentation of the new program flow TF1, "Dancing with the Stars" alongside Sandrine Quétier. A strategic project for the chain after the end of "Star Academy". Despite a change in leadership programs, "the second season will take place in a few months, said Vincent Cerutti, although I can not tell you when and with what celebrities."

No production projects

Within six months, the young leader would be poised to confirm that, in its search for new faces, TF1 made him the right choice. Also not impossible that we find in other programs. "A magazine of entertainment is also being studied or for the prime-time, or to a second part of the evening. It would be a show about family life, and a pilot has been shot, "he says.

At a time when most television hosts are also producers, Vincent Cerutti has no plans for now to give in to these sirens. "Producing? Maybe one day, but it is not relevant. My priority is simple: lead and present programs as can Jean-Pierre Foucault. "In 2006, the leader had created his company, Press'Agrum Productions (which no longer exists as such), who has produced "You had your fill! "For SM TV. "It allowed me to present for four years a 90-minute talk show, where I received the guests as diverse as Marc Levy, Michèle Cotta or Jean d'Ormesson." The new host of advanced TF1 also the importance of this type of experience and regional media. "The local DTT channels are like the radio in the 1980s. These are laboratories that allow leaders and journalists of tomorrow to form. It is important to try to keep them even if they suffer a lot economically. "

This summer, Vincent Cerutti will also be broadcast on RTL, for the second consecutive summer. He replaces Vincent Perrot at the helm of "Stop or" every weekend, from 9:30 to 11:30.As in 2010, it will also be with Jean-Sébastien Petitdemange, this time for "Journey of a spoiled listener" on Saturday from 13:30 to 15:00, starting July 16. For those who started on the radio, should be seen as a harbinger of any lasting return on the air? Why not. "I speak with my manager Gerard Louvin," concedes the moderator.

Christine Lagarde to the American

From our correspondent in Washington.

America will now discover Christine Lagarde. Despite his six years at the head of the general business law firm Baker & McKenzie in Chicago, the French selected to head the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is not yet a well-known in the United States. The IMF does not enjoy the rest of America is its perceived prestige in Europe.

Those in the world of private finance and business in the United States had the opportunity to listen to Christine Lagarde, for example when she came to New York or Texas, explained the French economy, were impressed by his mastery of English style "professional" and his knowledge of capitalist values ​​cherished by Americans.

Its role in the G20 to build consensus on complex issues is also widely recognized.Including his prowess to have convinced the Chinese to accept the indicators for measuring imbalances that contribute to the weakening global economy. The weekly Bloomberg BusinessWeek points out that the style of Lagarde includes both an original look, built on its French elegance, her athletic figure, his tan, his white hair and a deliberate absence of ego that promotes the combination of points opposing views.

In 2009 the most American of French ministers had dared to participate in the satirical and political cable channel Comedy Channel. With a beret on her head, she had learned to his iconoclastic host, Jon Stewart, pronounced in French "catastrophic economic recession."In the movie produced by HBO about the financial crisis, the American actress Laila Robins plays the role of Christine Lagarde, s is to severely criticize Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson for allowing Lehman Brothers to fail: "This is a horrifying error," said she. This view, popular in Europe in 2008, is now about a real debate: let the shareholders of a bank that does not matter systems suffer all the consequences of errors of its leaders is seen to contrary by many American experts as perfectly justified. Systematic rescue of banks is seen by contrast as a source of distortion that increases the crisis and to encourage risk taking.

Reviews

Nevertheless, many who are familiar with the IMF were against the appointment of Christine Lagarde at the head of the institution. "If Mrs.Lagarde became boss of the IMF, it is likely to continue to dump loans in the euro area mired in its problems. If preventive programs are determined even for Spain, Italy or Belgium, the IMF will need to ask its shareholders at least another 1 trillion dollars in credit lines.Lagarde personifies the strategy of betting the euro area which aims to ensure his resurrection with other people's money, "explained a month ago, Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the IMF faxless cash advance.

One of his predecessors, Raghuram Rajan, argued that the choice of a European political figure would be bad: "The Fund is designed to defend policies hard to countries that have mismanaged their finances, not to win popularity contest "sums up the Indian economist, skeptical about a European is once again chosen to head the IMF.

In addition, Rajan is concerned about the lack of economic training of the French Minister: "We expected the IMF chief that he has opinions … we can not ask the staff to make decisions for you."This is where the boss DSK was ideal for the IMF: it could discuss on equal terms with technocrats Fund fundamental issues such as the relative effectiveness of tools to address a country in dire fiscal situation, or how best to control fickle capital flows without distorting market trends. Christine Lagarde does not have the technical knowledge to win such debates, very important in the IMF.

The most scathing anti-position Lagarde came from Sebastian Mallaby, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, "Lagarde is the latest person to whom he must look for a new approach and independent advice."Like many, the author of several books on multilateral institutions, Christine Lagarde believes that is partly responsible for the current crisis of the euro and therefore can not act with credibility to change the way it should be managed.

Mohamed El-Erian, head of the largest bond fund in the world, PIMCO, has taken some of these arguments. A former senior official of the IMF had proposed that it be called once just to finish the term of DSK, ie until November 2012. Beyond that, it could be renewed if it had been proven.

"Ms. Lagarde was also criticized, like other European political leaders for mishandling the crisis of the euro since its inception and now obliged to be in a hurry to clean the problems they have created" reminds his side a journalist from The New York Times.Far from judging that the triumph of Christine Lagarde is simply the consecration of real qualities, rather than the Americans consider their new responsibility will test his ability to play a role as conciliator not of divergent views, but the substantive decision-maker to decide in both technical issues but also political, forgetting that it is European.

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Greece: Restructuring considered inevitable and frightening

Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic.

While European leaders seek to reassure financial markets by saying that Greece's debt will not be restructured, some strategists say the opposite. "To get out of financial crisis plan which moved the European countries, Greece should be restructured" hard, "said Christophe Donay, chief strategist at Pictet & Cie. In other words, Europe must draw a line under some of Greece's debt-what I call a partial-defect, while recapitalizing banks recorded losses due to restructuring. "

However, the solution currently under discussion at EU level aims to do everything to avoid a "credit event" on the Greek debt, that is to say a default. It is thus considered a new loan to pay 60 to 65 billion euros by 2014.The private sector would also be involved, banks are encouraged to continue investing in the Greek debt to the tune of 15 to 20 billion euros.

"But by giving more money to Greece, Europe or the private sector maintain the regime crisis," says Christophe Donay. "Reading the financial markets on the debt of European countries has changed. Until then, they adopted an accounting approach. In other words, they wondered how Europe should pay to save a troubled country. Today, they wonder whether the European countries generate enough growth to pay off their debts to five or ten years. "

45 years to meet the Maastricht

For Strategist Pictet, the conclusion is clear: the growth rates of financially troubled countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain) are insufficient to finance their debts payday loans.Thus, Greece, Ireland and Portugal are expected to show annual growth of 21%, 13% and 8% in ten years to achieve a debt / GDP ratio of 60% as required by the Maastricht criteria. And if one was considering realistic annual growth rate (2%), it would take 45 years to Greece to meet this criterion and 30 years of debt to Ireland. "It is not clear that financial markets are waiting so long," concluded Christopher Donay.

Time is the right thing yet to the euro zone, according to Anton Brender, Chief Economist at Dexia AM. "Lack of Greece, alone, does not pose a problem in itself," he said. But such an event is likely in the current fragility of other countries in the periphery, causing a phenomenon of contagion.If Greece fails, why not also Ireland or Portugal, who also receive assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, will wonder when the markets.

Beyond even this group of countries at risk, "there is a risk of transmission of the crisis countries such as Belgium, Italy and Spain," continues the economist. "You have to give time to the latter, especially, to leave the area of ​​infection by standing on a stable trajectory of debt reduction", defends Anton Brender. For this, one must combine austerity and growth, two goals are incompatible in the short term.

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Why the drop in oil is reflected at the pump hurt

As with every drop of crude on international prices, oil is accused of failing to pass the motion on the price at the pump. After soaring oil in April, hoping motorists in early May, quickly see the effect of receding oil prices on the invoice to the service station. He had to wait.

From May 2 to 13, the price per barrel fell from 125.85 dollars to 114.65 dollars in London. However, prices of MS 95 have fallen by an average of … zero cents, while diesel fell 3 to 4 cents in the period. Those are the findings of a study by the Directorate General for Competition, Consumption and Fraud published Monday.

Threats Bercy

This report, the Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde, the accuser is: he believes that dealers could have decreased the price of 6 cents per liter of SP95 and that 4 cents of diesel between April 2 and May 15 Given this apparent unwillingness, Bercy threat sector to impose lower prices.

In reality, it took until May 20 to observe the first tangible effects of the sharp fall in international prices of black gold. It has thus been two full weeks or 10 days, so that the prices displayed in service station finally decrease to the SP 95, 3.4 cents, to 1.515 euros per liter on average.

Operators have taken advantage of the ten days of falling oil prices to restore gross margins by not amending hardly prices at the pump. Immediate expense of consumers.According to calculations Figaro.fr this margin, which can amortize the costs of transportation and distribution, has in fact increased between the first and third week of May, the order of 2 5-3 cents per liter of MS 95.

Cushion the impact

If retailers wanted to restore their margins, it is because they were compressed during the surge in oil prices during the month of April and early May. "When prices at the pump exceed 1.50 euros per liter, operators tend to cushion the impact on the customer taking on them," says Jean-Louis Schilansky, president of the French Union of Petroleum Industries ( UFIP). So when crude prices went back down, "there was little effect of margin recovery," he admits.

The authors of the study reached the same conclusion, noting that before the falling price of a barrel in early May, traders will puncturing an unusually low margin per liter of MS 95. Namely between 8.3 cents and 2.1 for the majors cents for large surfaces. Still, oil has long been suspected to better pass on increases in the fuel decreases. As in this report INSEE dating from 2002, clearly titled: "The fuel price is more sensitive to higher rather than lower crude oil."

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The euro soar to $ 1.48

Shortly after the press conference eagerly awaited the U.S. central bank, the euro resumed its advance against the dollar. While the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated his willingness to continue to support the resumption of U.S. growth, the greenback fell to its lowest level since the summer of 2008 against the six major international currencies. Yet the Fed chairman has assured that a "strong dollar and stable in the interest of the United States and the world."But nothing helps, the euro climbed to nearly $ 1.48, its highest level since December 2009 and as the dollar rose against the yen at 82.15 yen 81.55 yen against Tuesday night.

"The changes introduced by the limited material provided by the Fed gave the green light to return to the market trends of recent times, that promote risk-taking (purchase of raw materials, investment in emerging markets)" financed by the back of the weak dollar, noted Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank.

On the other hand, the Fed chief has not given any indication of possible rate hikes in the short term, while most major central banks, like the European Central Bank, are engaged in cycles monetary tightening.Thus, the "carry trade" – a strategy arbitrage between interest rates of different currency areas – continue to make the procurement law and penalize the dollar.

Meanwhile, shortly after the speech by Ben Bernanke, gold has reached a new record at 1530 dollars an ounce and silver has it surpassed the $ 50 an ounce.

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International aid to Lisbon to prescribe a course of austerity

Representatives of IMF, the ECB and the European Commission began on Monday to discuss conditions of the rescue of Portugal. The appointment is crucial to Lisbon, without international assistance amounted to 80 billion euros, will be most difficult to meet June 15 a "falling debt" of $ 5 billion. The goal is to reach an agreement before the next Ecofin meeting, scheduled May 17

Faced with this troika is a resigning government which must defend the interests of Lisbon. The Socialists must secure the support of the PSD (center right), the first opposition party and poll favorite for the general election on June 5. To make matters worse, the negotiation takes place under market pressure. The risk premiums associated with the Portuguese debt increased further.

Analysts expect the measures of extreme rigor.The starting point of discussions should be the fourth austerity plan prepared by the Socialists, whose rejection in parliament led to the resignation of Prime Minister Jose Socrates.

According to the newspaper Correio da Manha, the troika would offer to reduce or eliminate welfare benefits provided to retirees at Christmas and during the holidays. A measure that would save up to 3.2 billion euros. Follow cuts in 13th and 14th month of officials, on the model of Greece. Finally, the plan should provide for privatizations and deep structural reforms, particularly in the labor market.

Mistrust and graffiti

The Portuguese were stung by the two previous interventions of the IMF in 1977 and 1983, host the troika with suspicion. The picture of a huge graffiti "IMF out", painted on a wall in Lisbon, was resumed yesterday by the press.

Local media also portray the head of the IMF mission, Poul Thomssen. The Dane is described by the daily Diario de Noticias as "the man from the cold that killed socialism." Flanked Germans Jürgen Kröger (Commission) and Rasmus Rüffer (ECB), should meet this week with representatives of unions and employers, after meeting Monday with Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos.

However, the Fund could play the "nice" policeman. Its experts plead for a loan rate lower than that currently pay Greece (5.3%) and Ireland (5.8%), and for spreading the repayment over four years instead of three, according the weekly Expresso.

The EU representatives would be less inclined to make concessions."There is a fundamental difference, noted economist and Joao Cesar das Neves, when Europe is caught in a political problem for the IMF it is simply a financial issue to create the conditions for the country is to repay its debts. "