The Elysee revises down growth in 2011

The Elysee has ruled. The growth forecast for 2011 was revised downwards to 2%, against 2.5% initially announced by President Nicolas Sarkozy after a meeting between Prime Minister François Fillon and the ministers of Bercy , held at Fort Brégançon.

Accordingly, the government will fall further fiscal austerity. The state spending will be frozen in value over three years. Ten billion euros of tax loopholes and social will be removed in the fall. In contrast, neither income tax nor corporation tax will be increased. VAT will not hit.

"Are we going to save the plane on social niches and tax everything to create employment, all that is relevant, all that sustains the economy, the answer is yes," said on RTL Budget Minister Francois Baroin.

If the government recognizes that 2011 will be worse than expected, the growth target for 2010 of 1.4%, should be well met, "or even exceeded, welcomes the Elysee. "On the pressure of potential revenue will be fully allocated to deficit reduction."

"After a GDP growth of 0.2% in the first quarter, a growth of 0.6% was recorded in the second quarter," said the Elysee. "Given the rebound in activity, the prospect of growth of 1.4% will be reached or exceeded for the year 2010.This also allows, in line with OECD projections, forecast growth of 2% for 2011. "

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"[This] leads us to the end of September, that is to say, the presentation of the draft budget law to the Cabinet, to be between 3 and 3.5 billion more, which is perfectly achievable, "said Baroin.

The downward revision in growth was expected. Economists considered the unrealistic assumption of the government and rely for their part in an average growth of between 1.5 and 1.8%. For its part, the International Monetary Fund deemed "too optimistic" the official forecast. Recently, Bercy also acknowledged work scenario around 2%.

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